While looking through a handful of sleepers, I came across Justin Masterson’s name. Here’s a player with a 2010 FIP of 3.93 and an xFIP of 3.98 along with a tERA of 3.81. His ERA of 4.70 in 2010 meant that he was probably undervalued and I’ve had a man-crush on the tall righty since he was a Red Sox top prospect.
Masterson uses a low three-quarters delivery that’s fairly deceptive on righties and he’s done a good job maintaining his release point and arm action. Lefties, on the other hand, absolutely crush Justin Masterson to the tune of a .288 2010 BA.
Masterson just doesn’t have something, anything, to get left-handers out. His change-up has improved, but he still just throws it 4% of the time. The opposing team is able to sit back, put their legs up, and wait for the FB% league leader to throw it. Masterson throws the fastball almost 80% of the time and while it’s good, it’s not *that*good.
Masterson did finish 2010 on a fairly strong note posting a 3.28 and 2.14 ERA in August and September/October, respectively. In the final month of the season, he raised his K-Rate but more importantly lowered his BB-Rate over the course of 21 innings. This isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s definitely something that we’ll point back to if he takes off this year.
I like Masterson, I really do. You can easily roster Masterson and sit him against left-heavy line-ups until he gets everything figured out, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll drastically improve. If you like micro-managing, I think Masterson’s a great play late in the draft.
