Earlier this week Brett Wallace went four-for-five with seven RBIs and I really didn’t want to mention it. Talking about the Astros, let alone the Astros in spring-training, is just awkward. People don’t like awkward conversation. That’s why Lindsay Lohan gets to walk out of a jewelry store with a free necklace and why Spike Lee is somehow referred to as the critically acclaimed director, Spike Lee.
In 2010, the Astros were absolutely abysmal. Their offence was marginally better than the Pirates and Mariners and in homer-friendly Houston, the only team that hit fewer dingers than the ‘Stros were the Mariners. Hell, we started using Tommy Manzella’s name to describe the state in which a man drinks too much and is unable to maintain certain performance standards. When you hit for a slash-line of .225/.267/.264 — that’s an OPS of .531 — should you be surprised when people starting saying, “That girl was gorgeous but you really got into the Glenfiddich last night, hope you didn’t get a Tommy Manzella.”
Thankfully, for fantasy owners around the world, Tommy Manzella is now a bench player. Brett Wallace, on the other hand, looks to have all but locked up the first base gig. Wallace must perform well above average to keep the gig though. Carlos Lee’s who tentatively slotted as the left-fielder is absolutely brutal defensively and there was talk of permanently switching him to first base.
Wallace has been a top-prospect forever, but no one seems to want him. That’s what happens when you’re a first base prospect without jaw-dropping power (although this curse seems to have eluded Freddie Freeman.) After a disappointing 2009, Brett Wallace seemed to enjoy the hitter’s paradise that the Jays’ AAA club calls home. Wallace posted an isolated power north of .200 and a SLG% better than 0.500 before being shipped off to the Astros and spending the rest of the year struggling in the show. Heading into 2011, Wallace enters a true sink-or-swim year. No longer hampered by trying to play third and entering his age-25 season, Wallace will have to show actual results or risk falling into obscurity.
After an awful 2010, there’s plenty of room for upside though. Wallace showed horrific plate discipline (~40% O-Swing) for someone whose plate discipline was applauded by Baseball America. Pitchers obviously caught on and threw Wallace a mere 40% of pitches inside of the zone and let Wallace’s 12% SwStr do the rest. There’s at least some reason to be a believer, though: Wallace posted an awful HR/FB rate and actually made solid contact across the board. It was just his pitch recognition and selection skills that abandoned him. Many of the prospect writers have been suggesting that Wallace take a more aggressive approach for a while now, especially with the news that he’d be a full time first basemen, and last year it looks like Wallace tried to accommodate.
Ideally, we’d like to see Wallace revert to his old swing — his doubles swing — and just take a big hack every once and a while when the count permits. A 22-23 HR season may not seem like the best option for your first basemen, but if Wallace is able to hit for a respectable average there’s definitely a spot for him in deeper leagues. The RBI and R opportunities won’t be plentiful in Houston, but I can think of worse options. The Astros can’t get any worse, can they?
Furthermore, Carlos Lee can’t get any worse, can he? After being one of the most reliable OF options, Lee fell off a cliff last year. Lee was a lock for 25-30 HR with a .300 average for almost a decade, but 2010′s .246 BA / 24 HR season may just be the beginning of the end. Everything about Lee’s 2010 season said minor injury or depleting skills. He cheated on almost every pitch, couldn’t catch up to the fastball, couldn’t hit the off-speed stuff, didn’t have the power, hit only 15% line-drives, and had a 35% O-Swing.
So no, Lee can’t get any worse. All of the projection models see him as a fairly useful player in 2011 and I tend to agree, especially since Lee appears to understand — even BABIP sorta — that went wrong last year:
“I feel I’ve got a lot to prove,” he said. “I know I’m way better than the season I had last year and that I’m capable of doing a lot to help this team.”
The Astros are banking on it.
“He is the person that could make a huge difference on this team,” owner Drayton McLane said.
“Carlos is huge for us,” general manager Ed Wade said.
“He needs to bring the thunder,” right fielder Hunter Pence said.
No one is expecting more out of the left fielder than Lee himself. He’s buoyed by the fact he rebounded somewhat in the second half of last season. He had 41 RBIs in the final 61 games of the year after needing 96 games to drive in his first 48.
With Lee and others in the lineup struggling offensively, the Astros were buried in the standings by the time he got his bat going. That led them to trade Lance Berkman, who had occupied the heart of the lineup with Lee for 3 1/2 seasons, and wound up putting more pressure on Lee to perform.
“At one point in the season, everything I hit was an out,” he said. “I hit hard, soft, whatever, it was an out. Overall I made really good contact all year long. I didn’t strike out much and just couldn’t get any hits. At the end of the year, I know my numbers were down, but I still hit 24 homers and had 90 RBIs. It’s not Carlos Lee, but it wasn’t bad, though.” http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110220&content_id=16691088&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb
