Looking back on twenty-ten, most of the memorable moments involve pitchers, no-nos and almost no-nos. Even though I was fully aware that 2010 was the year of the pitcher, for some reason I never fully understood that, by definition, it also meant a down year for hitters.
It wasn’t until I started digging into the perfect point system that I realized 2010 was a pretty awful year for even the best hitters. Miguel Cabrera led the MLB with 126 RBI after Fielder and Howard posted 141 RBI in 2009. In 2008, Howard went for 146 RBI and Hamilton knocked in 130RBI. In 2007, Rodriguez posted 156 RBI and a total of four players topped 126 RBI. In 2006, six players posted more RBIs than Cabrera’s 126 in 2010. In 2005, three different players hit more than 140 RBI.
A quick look at the MLB statistics show this didn’t just plague the top-notch players:
| YEAR | R | HR | RBI | BA | SB | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2005 | 744 | 167 | 708 | 0.264 | 86 | 0.33 | 0.419 | 0.749 |
| 2006 | 787 | 180 | 750 | 0.269 | 92 | 0.336 | 0.432 | 0.768 |
| 2007 | 777 | 165 | 742 | 0.268 | 97 | 0.336 | 0.422 | 0.758 |
| 2008 | 753 | 163 | 718 | 0.264 | 93 | 0.333 | 0.416 | 0.749 |
| 2009 | 747 | 168 | 712 | 0.262 | 99 | 0.333 | 0.418 | 0.75 |
| 2010 | 710 | 154 | 676 | 0.257 | 99 | 0.325 | 0.403 | 0.728 |
Using the MLB team averages from ESPN, you can see that hitting is down across the board in 2010. There’s definitely a decline, but is this a permanent and should it affect our expectations for the top-notch players?
In the graph to the right, you should be able to see the decline of RUNS (BLACK) and RBI (RED).
It’s starting to get late and I’d like to knock this out tonight, but the line of best fit has last year as much lower than it should’ve been even if we think this is a real (and linear) decline.
Premature Conclusion: I’m starting to think that the projection models may be overvaluing pitchers and undervaluing hitters based on the off-year in 2010.
I have a few ideas, but they all require math that I’m not willing to put in right now.
Concentration of Talent? It seems as though talent was a bit more spread out last year. I’ll include a distribution graph when I actually deal with this.
Injuries: A few of the big-boppers didn’t play a full schedule
Decline In Talent: Maybe we were just spoiled.
Statistical Aberration: Yup, They Happen.
