Where the Watermelons Grow.
Jason Bay had a terrible season before concussing his head-brain last year. In 95 Games, Bay only hit 6HR, stole 10 bases, crossed the plate 48 times and knocked in 47. His draft status this year reflects a player that’ll come in somewhere between his peak and last year, despite the Fangraphs (FANS) predicting 91R/23HR/95RBI/12SB/.269BA. The gents over at ESPN are more pessimistic on Bay, they’ve got him listed as the 45th best OF based on a prediction of 85/19/84/12/.268.
I’m pretty bullish on the guy, though. We know that Bay will post around a 11% BB-Rate and a 25% K-Rate; those are givens. Beyond that, we’ve really got to decide whether or not Bay will post a batting average inline with his career rates (.280-something) or more reminiscent of his 2007, 2009 and 2010 (.260-something). 2007′s low-average was a result of BABIP, 2009 was a result of homer-happy Bay hitting non-stop flies, and 2010 was just a mess. With the reports coming out of camp, it appears as though Bay will return to a shorter swing that’ll help him deal with the fastball. When Bay succeeds, he absolutely crushes the fastball and a shorter swing should help him get around.
Bay’s 19.7% HR/FB rate in Boston contributed to his 36HR season and ensuing payday, but probably will not be repeated. Bay consistently posted high-teens HR/FB rates early in his career though and he does have legitimate power. Heading in 2011, we should certainly expect something better than his 2010 5.1% HR/FB, but not quite 20%: something around 15% seems fair considering the park. Realistically, this should bring Bay in around .220-.225 ISO and make for a very useful player.
Twenty-Five homers aren’t out of the question, so long as Bay gets something to hit and stops chasing the junk when they throw it. For the first time in his career, Bay posted an O-Swing above 23% (27.1) and made some of the worst contact of his career (excluding homer-happy 2009). When Bay was tearing it up outside of Boston, he consistently saw more than 50% of the pitches inside of the zone, but that changed when he started hitting big-flies in Fenway. The trend continued last year, despite Bay’s relative uselessness.
No one can predict whether or not we’ve witnessed the death of a star or just a temporary blip on the screen. I think Bay’s got some gas left in the tank and there’s a bunch of upside trapped in this sinking superstar. Bay is on the tail end of his prime, not his career.
Just one of those feelings, I guess.
