After last year’s Rookie of the Year performance, Coghlan’s ownership in Standard Yahoo! Leagues dipped well below 50% in 2010. Even within Coghlan’s recent 9-game hit streak, owners have only added to him an extra 5% of leagues and his ownership now sits at exactly 49%.
Coghlan’s no longer freakishly useful — a toothless hooker robbed him of his second base eligibility (and dignity) — but as an outfielder leading off a Marlins line-up that just called up Mike Stanton, he’ll provide enough value to maintain Top-45 outfield value for the rest of the season. In 12-team, 3-OF, 1-Util baseball leagues, this is enough to justify a starting outfield gig on most teams and definitely a bench-spot.
Over the past 14-days, Coghlan’s been a top-5 hitter in terms of batting average (.440) and a top-15 hitter in OPS (1.141). However, much of this has to do with Coghlan’s ownership of the top spot in BABIP (.568) and will likely regress in the near future. ZiPS predicts Coghlan to maintain his current .335 BABIP for the rest of the season which should come as no surprise to anyone that rode his .365 BABIP to a .321 BA in 2009.
However, even with Coghlan hitting 32.4% line-drives over the past two weeks, there are many warning signs:
- Coghlan’s still striking out almost a quarter of the time compared to 2009′s 15% K-Rate.
- Coghlan’s continued to walk a mere 6% of the time over the past two-weeks.
- After last year’s success, Coghlan’s seen fewer pitches inside of the strike-zone and has been unable to lay off the junk. Coghlan’s O-swing has risen from 21.5% in 2009 to 27.8% in 2010. Over his hit-streak, he continues to post a 25% 0-Swing Rate.
- As is almost always the case with young hitters that succeed, Coghlan’s also seeing fewer fastballs in 2010. Additionally, he’s seen his proficiency drop against every off-speed pitch after posting positive against sliders, curveballs and change-ups in 2009. Coghlan’s still handling the curveball well but his ability to handle the slider and change-up has taken a dip.
With all of that said, this still isn’t an Anti-Coghlan article.
Coghlan’s horrific start to 2010 has been documented but taking 107 plate appearances to acquire an extra-base hit bears repeating. After an April that saw Coghlan post a .195 Batting Average, he’s steadily improved: .252 in May and now .500 through seven June games.
Despite Coghlan’s short-comings in 2010, he’ll contribute to your fantasy squad on almost all fronts. Hitting atop the Marlin’s line-up should allow Coghlan’s ZiPS predicted .283 BA the rest of the way home to translate into a solid source of runs. Coghlan’s also resumed his running ways — he posted 34 SB in AA in 2008 — by stealing seven bases thus far in 2010 after only recording eight in 2009.
An optimistic prediction for Coghlan the rest of the way: .290 AVG / 55 R / 6HR/ 35 RBI / 13 SB — this would put him around .280 AVG/ 83 R / 9HR / 52 RBI / 20SB on the year. These numbers are definitely playable in most formats and Coghlan still has some upside left in the tank. He may not have a single category that stands out like last year’s batting average but he’ll contribute across the board.
Just remember, it was Coghlan’s second half that won him the ROY award. Coghlan slumped in 2009 too and managed to hit over .370 after the All-Star break to take home the cheddar. If you’re in a shallower league, I’d recommend paying attention to Coghlan’s BB:K rate before making the move to add him.
