Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both made splashed in Spring Training last year and ended up making the big-club much sooner than expected. Baseball America had Anderson and Cahill ranked seventh and eleventh respectively last winter and while Anderson had somewhat of a break-out campaign, Cahill sputtered. Cahill’s strike-out rate evaporated last year (4.5K/9) after posting a strike-out per inning in the minor leagues. Scouts were tantalized by Cahill’s ability to sink the fastball and induce grounders while having a curveball that could put batters away but this rare combination almost disappeared in 2009 as Cahill faced issues with control (3.63BB/9). More importantly, Cahill’s stuff didn’t look nearly as dominant as advertised. Well, it’s 2010 now and Cahill’s the proud owner of a 3.02 Earned Run Average. Cahill’s FIP on the wrong side of five shows that his current rate isn’t sustainable but there are definitely signs of improvement from the young righty. Quite frankly, his stuff just looks better; his stuff just looks heavier.
Cahill’s still having trouble locating pitches outside of his sinker, but here’s the comparison:
| Type | Count | Selection | VEL | VERT | HORZ | SPIN ANG. | RPM |
| 2010-SI | 295 | 44.70% | 89.7 | 2.35 | -10.03 | 257 | 2024 |
| 2009-SI | 908 | 30.30% | 90.1 | 4.38 | -11.49 | 249 | 2365 |
| 2010-CH | 120 | 18.20% | 81.4 | 0.21 | -6.08 | 257 | 1152 |
| 2009-CH | 874 | 29.20% | 82.1 | 3.7 | -8.62 | 246 | 1719 |
| 2010-CU | 75 | 11.40% | 78.3 | -6.19 | 5.62 | 42 | 1415 |
| 2009-CU | 102 | 3.40% | 80.8 | -2.2 | 0.86 | 120 | 762 |
| 2010-SL | 19 | 2.90% | 83.1 | 0.75 | 1.35 | 121 | 350 |
| 2009-SL | 201 | 6.70% | 83.5 | 2.75 | 0.07 | 175 | 620 |
Sinker: Cahill’s two-seamer or sinker has been getting an extra couple inches of drop and he’s been going to it quite frequently.
Change-Up: Considering the swing-and-miss percentage, the change-up has been Cahill’s best pitch over the past two years. Cahill’s went to it less this year despite adding significant sink to the pitch by detracting spin.
Curveball: Here’s the money-pitch. Cahill’s knuckle-curve was highly touted coming out of the minors, but looked terribly average last year. In the data, a handful of sliders were confused for curveballs but he was still barely breaking it past zero on either axis. In 2010 this pitch has looked absolutely beautiful with an added 4 inches of movement on each axis. Cahill however hasn’t be able to throw his curveball consistently for strikes and batters are simply laying off the pitch.
Slider: The slider as well has seen improvement as Cahill’s been releasing it at an angle that’ll allow a significant improvement in horizontal movement.
Analysis:
Cahill looks to be remarkably close to actually putting things together which goes to suggest his regression may not be quite as dramatic as suggested by his FIP. There are a few concerns, starting with a sloppy release point that all but telegraphs Cahill’s intent to throw a straight four-seamer. If Cahill’s able to clean up his delivery, the next problem is Cahill’s lack of strike-outs, pitch location and pitch selection. Cahill’s location on breaking pitches, while not atrocious, hasn’t been great. The lack of location has lead to an incredibly predictable pitcher, even when he gets out in front of batters early in the count.
On 0-and-2 counts, Cahill has been going to his fastball 75% of the time while only showing his slider and curveball five percent of the time. The pattern continues on 1-and-2 counts before Cahill begins to throw his change-up a third of the time on 2-and-2 counts. For a pitcher that came with a highly regarded curveball out of the minors, five percent of the time as a STFD (sit the fuck down) pitch doesn’t exactly show a trust in the pitch. Brandon Webb, my favourite comparison for Cahill, went to his change-up and curveball over 20% of the time each on counts of 0-and-2 and 1-and-2.
Watching the Cahill-kid pitch, I have no doubt that he needs to work on his control but with the increased movement that he’s showing on all his pitches, he’s gotta let ‘em do the work for him. As it stands, it’s almost as if the catcher’s in Oakland are calling games for last year’s Cahill, not the 2010 version. Cahill’s an effective pitcher when he’s just throwing that sinker but for him to be anything more than a number three, he’ll have to start striking people out.
