In 2006, the Braves selected Kris Medlen in the 10th round out of Santa Ana College in California. Medlen pitched well through the minors and came to become a starter in 2008. Throughout the minors, Medlen maintained a solid K-per-IP and about 2BB-per-9. While Medlen’s fastball only hits about 91mph on the gun, he throws it with sink and complements it with a change and curveball.
Medlen started off the year in the ‘pen but with Jair Jurrjens’ injury has moved into a starting role. On the year, Medlen’s posted a terrific 2.57 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with a 1-and-1 record.
Of more interest are Medlen’s last two starts as a Brave and whether or not he has value going forward. In those two starts, Medlen’s faced very mediocre competition in the Mets and Pirates but pitched through 6.1 and 5.2 innings respectively. It’s to be expected that Bobby Cox would initially take it slow with Medlen but as last night showed, the reins are about to come off. After Medlen got himself into a jam in the sixth, he’d thrown 97 pitches and was probably just about out of gas. Going forward, Medlen should be able to hit around 100 pitches without losing too much.
As for strike-out potential and control, ZiPS has Medlen striking out 8.22 batters per 9 and walking about 3.00 over the rest of the season. Quite frankly, the strike-out rate is far too high if Medlen remains a starter. Medlen’s K-numbers should resemble the somewhere between 6.50 and his current 7.20K-per-9.
Kris Medlen’s a solid option going forth — not spectacular, not awful — but his fantasy success will rely on the health (and effectiveness) of the current Braves staff.
Jurrjens has been on the DL since late April with a hammy-injury. During a running-drill in Milwaukee in mid-May, Jurrjens reinjured the hamstring and the time-table is up in the air.
As for the rest of the staff, Tim Hudson continues to get incredibly lucky and Tommy Hanson and Derek Lowe are locks for their starter spots. After Jurrjens returns, Kenshin Kawakami is the only Braves pitcher that could lose a spot to Medlen.
Kawakami is currently 0-and-6 with an ERA of 4.98 but will get every chance to retain his spot. Kawakami in the rotation and Medlen in the bullpen makes a lot more sense unless Kawakami continues his slide to uselessness.
Even if Medlen gets shipped back to the pen, make sure to keep an eye out. The Braves current rotation isn’t comprised of spring-chickens, so Medlen ought to get at least a couple chances to start.
Medlen shouldn’t have a problem posting an ERA in the low-fours with solid K and WHIP numbers over the course of the year. Essentially, ride ‘em while you can and roster him for a couple weeks after he loses his starter’s spot.
