FTW
Just How Good Is Jon Lester?
May 26, 2010 by kris · Leave a Comment
The case for Jon Lester isn’t made nearly enough; somewhere along the line we got stuck classifying Lester as a feel good story rather than an absolutely dominant pitcher. The timing of his playoff success and subsequent no-hitter after coming back from cancer was extraordinary but has almost served to dull his star in the post-media circus . While cancer has undoubtedly defined his life, at some point we’ve got to start viewing him as Jon Lester, Cy Young candidate, rather than Jon Lester, cancer survivor.
Furthermore, at this point it’s not even candidate, it’s favourite.
Lester sits tied for second in strike-outs behind Tim Lincecum after last night’s nine strike-out performance. Lester’s ERA of 3.15 ranks 31st amongst starting pitchers which may seem pedestrian until perspective’s added: On April 18th, Lester had already accumulated his 2 losses on the season with an ERA of 8.44 through three games. In the 49 and two-thirds innings since, Jon Lester’s allowed exactly 8 ER for an ERA of 1.45 en route to five wins and two no decisions.
In addition to adding 3mph to his heater since entering the league, Lester’s ability to manipulate the spin of the ball, working it on both axis, has allowed him to dominate both like-handed and opposite-handed batters.
From the top, you’ll notice that Lester’s able to either cut or tail his fastball with distinctive movement in either direction. Lefties have been unfortunate enough to see Lester’s cutter (2.86 wCT/C) almost 30% of the time which may have been the worst of it in previous years.
In 2010 however, Lester possesses a refurbished toy in his change-up that he’s been throwing over 15% of the time to righties. Not only does the change-up drop an extra four inches (w/o gravity,) it exhibits very powerful tail (9.6″) and has been worth 4.29 runs per 100 pitches.
With Lester’s K-per-9 reaching almost 10, the only major concern has been his BB-Rate. After last night’s five walk performance, Jon Lester’s BB/9 is approaching four. While it’s impossible to completely ignore this, there’s been plenty of data that says Lester’s walk rate should settle in the high-twos and if this is the case, you’re looking at your AL Cy Young Winner.
