People reinvent themselves every day: Some travel to Thailand, others take the tv route, and certain folk just take the money and run. From the looks of it, Jeremy Bonderman falls somewhere in between Thai gender reassignment surgery and the biggest loser. Bonderman underwent surgery for thoracic outlet compression syndrome in 2008 and battled arm and shoulder fatigue for the majority of 2009.
You didn’t have to watch History’s Nostradamus Effect to know that an 8ER blowup might be in the cards for Bonderman early in the season but over the last month of the season, Bonderman’s accumulated an ERA of 1.33 ERA with a WHIP of 1.11. Sure, Bonderman’s faced the Seattles and Oaklands of the world but he’s also held New York and Boston to 2 and 0 earned runs respectively.
Bonderman’s no longer touching 95mph with the heat but he’s still striking out batters at quite the pace. Bonderman’s currently striking out 8.12 batters-per-9 which is right in line with his mid-2000′s numbers (2004: 8.22, 2006: 8.5.). Bonderman’s control isn’t that far behind either; His 2010 3.02 BB/9 is merely a third of a batter off of his early years.
Bonderman’s fastball has registered above average in terms of results for the first time in his career and his slider has remained his best pitch (according to linear weighted pitch evaluations on fangraphs.com). Furthermore, Bonderman’s registering the best contact-profile of his career even without the heat. Batters are swinging at a career high 33.4% of Bonderman’s pitches outside of the zone, while swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone. Bonderman’s overall contact rate of 80% is in line with his previous numbers excluding his previous two injury prone seasons. Bonderman isn’t inducing as many swinging strikes as in previous years but his 9.4% is above the league average and his 2008/9 numbers.
Bonderman’s getting this done the same way every other pitcher not blessed with 95mph heat does; he’s relying on control and movement. The PFX system is now recognizing almost 25% of Bonderman’s total pitches as two seamed fastballs. Bonderman’s 2-seamer still hits 90 mph on the gun but he’s getting an additional couple inches of both tail and sink over his 4-seamer.
Bonderman’s slider is the big-show, though. His decreased velocity is allowing an already superior slider to break hard (and late). Bonderman’s added almost an extra inch of cut to it while increasing the drop such that it registers an 0.4 of Vertical Movement. Bonderman’s delivery and release point has always been tight – we’re talking about a man that was born to pitch – which have allowed him to repeat his delivery and give hitters trouble picking up the different pitches.
Bonderman’s change-up has become somewhat infamous. Every year, Bonderman’s entered camp with an *improved* change-up and every year it gets smacked around. In 2010, the pitch hasn’t exactly impressed — he still spins the fuck out of it, resulting in a change without drop — but he’s went to it enough (14%) to put it in hitters minds.
As for what to look at and for heading forward, there’s plenty: Bonderman’s only allowing 3.7% of Flyballs to go for homers after consistently putting up 11% in the HR/FB category. Secondly, Bonderman’s always had a ridiculously bad LOB% which currently sits at 62.9% but should at least regress to the 70% range.
Bonderman definitely seems to have his shit together in 2010 and I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if his velocity starts slowly coming back. Maybe the layoff helped him with perspective but remember we’re still dealing with a pitcher that consistently pisses on FIP by posting an ERA at least half a run worse than his indicators. Bonderman registered a 4.08 ERA in 2006 and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect something on the high-side of that….
if.
he.
stays.
healthy.
