I’m sure you’re not surprised to learn that Tim Lincecum leads the league in K/9 (11.92) but sandwiched in between him and Yovani Gallardo (10.72) are three formerly hyped prospects. Brandon Morrow (11.83K/9), Bud Norris (10.75) and Justin Masterson (10.74) are posting jaw-dropping numbers. Unfortunately, all three of the aforementioned pitchers have had issues throwing strikes, which all but negates their terrific strike-out numbers.
First up, Bud Norris, the hard-throwing Astros righty. Norris recently put together a gem against the Cardinals, going eight innings without allowing a single walk! Norris finished the game with a line of 8IP, 1ER, 8K, 0BB while throwing 65 of 99 pitches for strikes.
Other than walks, the biggest factor to Norris’ success will be his change-up. The downward movement on the pitch appears to be greatly improved this year which has lead to him throwing it almost twice as much.
I like Bud Norris going forward but it’s going to be a bumpy ride with instances where his control completely abandons him. If Norris can put together one more start where he walks fewer than 3 batters, I’ll start tooting his horn a lot more. For those of you that monitor FIP and xFIP, Norris’ is outplaying his ERA of 6.03 by quite a bit with a 3.48 and 4.15, respectively.
Justin Masterson is next in line and there’s no way in hell that I would’ve predicted this start. When Masterson came up, I thought his K-numbers from the minors would completely evaporate. Masterson is essentially a sinkerballer who floats between 90 and 93 on his two seam fastballs. Yet with just a 2-seamer and a slider, Masterson’s managed to induce a Swinging Strike Percentage of over 9.0% every year that he’s been in the league. The strike-outs can’t possibly continue at this rate but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something higher than 8K/9 from him going forward. Masterson has a few series coming up against NYY, BOS and TAM in the next couple of months but other than that, the schedule doesn’t scare me. Masterson’s .412 BABIP against stands out like a sore thumb given his propensity to throw the sinker. When the BABIP and LOB% regress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4.00 ERA pitcher emerge.
Brandon Morrow
Last outing against the Red Sox, Morrow just couldn’t throw strikes. It was painful to watch and even more painful to examine (32 strikes to 35 balls.)
SideBar: As I type this, Morrow is once again getting hit hard courtesy of the Rangers.
Of all three, Morrow has the best ‘pure’ stuff: 95mph fastball, 88mph slider, a change and a show-me curveball (that’s better than you’d imagine.) Morrow’s combination of heat and offspeed stuff give him the highest ceiling but his inability to throw strikes will limit its attainability.
Right now and probably for the foreseeable future, Morrow will be a match-up guy. If he’s facing a light-hitting team or a team that has a tendency to chase; Morrow’s worth a start.
Regardless of the Rangers’ power, they do chase a lot of pitches. Today’s start should be a decent litmus test for Brandon Morrow.
