When I selected Austin Jackson as the last pick in my keeper league, I didn’t expect this. Jackson, once the darling of New York, had slowly went about lowering expectations before heading to the Motor City. Are we still allowed to call Detroit that? It sure does sound better than the land of dead industry and defaulted mortgages, I guess.
To say that I’ve been pleasantly surprised by a .376 average, 1 HR, 9RBI, 23 Runs and 5 SB is an understatement. Beneath these numbers lies the ugly truth: A BABIP of .524, a K% of 30, and a LD% of 39!
If Jackson cares to build on his early success en route to an AL ROY award, something has to change, because as Fangraphs and Yahoo will tell you, “This Shit Aint Sustainable, Son!”
The Tigers understand that Jackson’s also bound for regression, but they’ve apparently planned for this. Unlike may of the floundering youngsters, with Jackson, the Tigers have said “Fuck it” and stuck him in the lead-off hole.
The Tigers know Jackson strikes out too much but they’ve said, “Fuck it! Stick him ahead of Damon, Ordonez, and Cabrera.” As a result, Jackson has been getting quality pitches on almost every AB. It doesn’t matter that Jackson’s struggling against Change-Ups.
At the big-league level, almost every pitcher can spot his fastball or at the very least, it’s the pitch he goes to when he’s behind in the count. Jackson can hit the fastball and with the trio of quality hitters trailing him, he’ll continue to get his fair share of ‘em. Jackson will struggle against many of the premium pitchers that can spot their off-speed stuff each and every AB. However, against league-average pitchers, Jackson has a decided advantage when he steps into the batter’s box. If pitchers feel confident that Jackson will chase junk, they can try their luck. Once Jackson gets on base though, he’s got the speed and the batters behind him to make the pitcher pay immediately.
Jackson is exhibiting league-average discipline skills and as long as he sits atop the Tigers’ line-up, he’ll continue to produce. Obviously not at this ridiculous level, but I wouldn’t be writing him off quite yet. If you have Jackson and can sell high, go ahead and do just that. In the internet era, no one’s buying what you’re selling, though. Jackson’s doing so well that everyone’s focused on his flaws rather than his success.
If I were in a league with a bunch of stats-driven nerds, I’d be tempted to acquire rather than deal Mr. Austin Jackson.
