Gorzelanny sounds Italian, even if he was born in Evergreen Park, Illinois. I’m not sure about you guys, but when it comes to veined Italian blue cheeses, Gorgonzola’s one of my favourites. Whether it’s cow-milk or goat-milk based, Gorgonzola’s a very versatile cheese. That’s my attempt at a nick-name for Gorzelanny — I’m sure Gorzilla or maybe even plain ol’ Gorzo might sound better, but here at freefantasymagazine, we appreciate cheeses.
With that said, Gorzelanny is available in almost every fantasy baseball league, even after putting up a 2.40 ERA over 15IP. Opponents are only hitting .196 against Gorzelanny; which, when combined with 5BB, gives Gorgonzola a 1.07 WHIP. Finally, we’ve got Gorzelanny throwing 14Ks in 15IP, which is good for a career high, 8.40 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB.
Obviously, these are early season statistics that aren’t exactly indicative of future performance but, with Zambrano being shifted to the bullpen for who knows how long, it looks like Gorgonzola will at least get a shot at out-dueling Carlos Silva. That may sound like an easy feat, considering Silva’s lack of talent, but Big-Fat Silva has been just as good as Gorzelanny thus far. Silva’s currently sporting an ERA and WHIP under 1.00 in 19IP thus far. I’m sure he’ll eventually come back down to earth, but crazier things have happened: Jarrod Washburn kept up the act for 133 innings in 2009.
Tom Gorzelanny hasn’t pitched a full season in the bigs since a very respectable 2007 with the Pirates. That year, Gorzelanny topped 200IP and kept his ERA under 4.00 while recording about 6K-per-9. Gorzelanny eventually played poorly enough to pitch his butt out of Pittsburgh and he and Grabow set sail for Chicago.
In Chicago, Gorgonzola has stepped it up, even if it’s yet to truly manifest itself. Although Gorzelanny posted a 5.63 ERA with Chicago last year, his Fielding Independent Pitching (normalized to ERA) [FIP] and xFIP (expected FIP based on regressed HR/FB) were much better than that.
Gorzo registered a 4.14 FIP and 3.64 xFIP which were driven by a 62.8 Left On Base Percentage, a .326 BABIP, and finally a 14% HR/FB rate. In Gorzelanny’s 38IP in Chicago last year, very rarely did he have luck on his side.
In 2010, things haven’t been much better, but it’s only been 15 innings after all. Gorzelanny’s FIP (2.14) is actually lower than his ERA once again, so what’s noticeable different?
Plate Discipline:
Since coming to the Cubs, Gorzelanny has induced more swings out of the zone (2009: 28.5% 2010: 37.7%) and lowered overall Contact% (09: 77% 10: 74%). While in Pittsburgh, Gorzo was averaging around 20% O-Swing and 82% Contact-Rate.
This has resulted in an noticeable increase in Swinging Strike percentage (7.7% -> 10.7% in 2009 and 12.4% in 2010.) Currently it’s impossible to tell whether this is just a result of a small sample size, a change in approach, or just better stuff.
Speaking of Stuff:
The Curveball is gone.
Gorzelanny was throwing the pitch about 10% of the time at about 75mph prior to 2009. In 2010, the curveball is barely in his arsenal and is currently used as nothing more than a surprise pitch. Based on the linear weights, the curveball was epically bad in 2008; so good riddance.
Gorzelanny is almost always going to his slider (33.3%) for an off-speed offering, while dabbling with the change-up (7.2%) when handedness permits. The rest of the time, Gorzelanny is using his fastball. Gorzelanny has also been sinking his fastball more often than throwing a straight four-seamer.
In essence, Gorzelanny has combined his slider and curveball into a slurve without losing velocity. The new slurve has greater movement on both planes at the same speed.
In addition to the slurve, Gorzelanny’s change-up has always had terrific movement but that’s probably to be expected, given its velocity.
The End:
More movement on the fastball, such that it’s been deemed a two-seamer by many pitch classification systems
+
Transition of slider into slurve without losing velocity
=
Improved Pitcher.
How Good? I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with a 3.75 – 4.00 ERA if given the opportunity. For the time being, I’d expect success for at least a couple starts as hitters begin to adjust to him.
Not sure that I follow this slurve stuff you mention. Is it a new pitch? In layman’s terms is Gorzelanny’s newfound success based on him changing his pitching arsenal/repertoire? If so can we assume you expect the success to continue?
I’m just spit-balling here but, Gorzelanny has all but eliminated the curveball from his arsenal. At the same time, his slider over the course of late-2009 into 2010 has exhibited more “curve-like” break. It’s falling off the table a bit more.
To me, it just looks as if, Gorzelanny threw the movement from his Slider and Curveball into a blender and started using a mixture of the two. It doesn’t break as much as his old curveball, but it’s breaking more than his usual slider.
I think he posts an ERA under/around 3.90 with solid K Numbers — 150K Isn’t out of the question. It’s a very optimistic look at Gorzo, but it’s a possibility.