I had a conversation with a fellow keeper-league participant earlier this month and it went something like this:
Me: Remember that young Tampa Bay second baseman that flashed power and had all of our panties wet?
Him: Cantu, right?
Me: Yah, Cantu. Fucking Cantu.
Jorge Cantu is one of the few players that I’ll never bother projecting positively because he burned me in the past. Beyond that, I just can’t compute how the hell he’s still a productive baseball player.
In 2004, Cantu teased us with a .301 AVG, 2HR, 25R and 17 RBI in 50 Games. When we started projecting that over 150 Games, it was nice to look at, especially considering the less than stellar crop of young-kids at second base. There was a youngster named Chase Utley who posted 13HR in 2004, but he was also 4 years older than Cantu.
The selection of Cantu paid dividends in 2005, when he hit 28 HR, tallied 117 RBI, and added 73 Runs scored.
…and then the bottom fell out. Cantu was demoted in 2006, ended up as a Cincinnati Red in 2007 and eventually found his way to the Marlins in 2008. Not only had I grown sour, but so had everyone else.
Then Cantu did what he does, he came out of nowhere. In 2008, Cantu got the K% down below 20 and his isolated power up past .200: These were the numbers that made Cantu successful in 2005. Twenty-Nine home-runs later and Cantu was back on radars, before the bottom once again fell out — or at least caved in a bit.
Those that expected another 29-HR season were greeted with a 16HR/67R/100RBI line: Nice, but not exactly what was expected. The ISO was down below .200 again, .154 to be exact, which was much more reminiscent of his 2006-2007 than 2005 & 2008. Cantu did post a career best .289 Batting Average, but he was now playing a corner infield spot where power was required, not just an added bonus.
So here we are in 2010 and Jorge Cantu already has 4 HR and a .250 SLG%. Translated, Jorge Cantu’s 20RBI trails only Miguel Cabrera’s 22RBI for the MLB lead.
Jorge Cantu is back to being Jorge Cantu. There are actually two versions of the most recent Jorge Cantu: One of them is great for fantasy, the other is terrific for baseball.
Realistically, fantasy owners don’t care that Cantu posted a career high in BB:K and OBP in 2009. Getting on base doesn’t translate into one of the five standard roto-categories (for Jorge Cantu). Despite getting on base at a .345-clip, Cantu scored 25 fewer runs than he did in 2008 when had an OBP of .327.
If you’re a fantasy owner, you should almost be hoping that Cantu’s got his mind set on striking out about 17% of the time. Swing for the fences young Cantu, swing!
Everything else during Cantu’s tenure in Florida, including 2010, has been about the same. The splits between Ground Balls, Fly Balls, and Line Drives are all the same — almost eerily so. The only noticeable difference in batted balls is the percentage of fly-balls that left the yard. In 2008 and 2010, Cantu’s knocking out over 12%. In 2009, Cantu’s HR:FB ratio sat around 7.5% for the entire year.
Luckily for Cantu owners, the lack of luck in the HR:FB ratio was offset by a better than average .310 BABIP. Home Run-to-Fly Ball percentage is a tricky metric, in that it could be any number of things that caused the drop-off. We’ll never know if it was approach, an injury, or just plain ol’ luck.
Based on the Contact numbers and Linear Weights for Pitches, I can only assume that it was an approach issue. In 2009, Cantu saw a decent amount of change-ups and for the very first time in his career, posted a positive number against the pitch.
Cantu just appeared more patient in 2009, swinging at about 5% fewer pitches than he had in previous years. As a result, he posted a career high 84.5% Contact Rate and a career-low F-Strike percentage (50.5%) and Swinging Strike Percentage (6.9%). Cantu, was from all accounts, turning into a … a hitter?
In 2010, Cantu’s reverted back to the masher of old: He’s back to swinging at more pitches out of the zone, making less contact and recording more swinging strikes.
This of course means: Masher-City.
As I said, I hate Jorge Cantu, but I hope that you’ll enjoy the ride. I feel like 2009 prepared Cantu to deal with prolonged slumps, which he’s probably been suspect to, but I’m too lazy to look up.
The Marlins probably would prefer Cantu to fall somewhere in between the fantasy Cantu and the baseball Cantu. From the looks of it, they’ll be getting the Cantu that hits 30HR rather than the Cantu that gets on-base around 35% of the time.
