…and now is the time to buy.
Last night, Francisco Liriano had a pretty piss-poor game: 6 IP, 5 Walks, 4 Hits, 3 strike-outs and 3 earned runs. It’s really not that awful, you can live with a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP every once and a while.
Rather than focusing on the numbers though, let’s take a look at what Liriano actually brought to the mound. The first thing that should jump out at you is the massive velocity increase — Ladies and Gentlemen, Liriano has regained the fire:
Four-Seam Fastball: Count (13), Average Speed (93.57mph), Max Speed (95.1mph)
Two-Seam Fastball: Count (29), Average Speed (93.58mph), Max Speed (95mph)
For all practical purposes, Liriano’s 2 and 4 seam fastballs are identified by the MLB Gameday as the same pitch. They’re two different pitches, but he throws them very hard and it takes more work than it’s worth to root through all of the data to pick out the pitches that were classified incorrectly. A combination of break and to a lesser extent, speed, will help you classify them properly.
The Important Part?
2009: Four Seam Average Speed: 91.5mph, Two Seam Average Speed: 90mph.
Giddy Up, young buck. Giddy Up.
In Liriano’s two 8K performances of 2009, he topped out at 93.1mph and 94.2mph. (topped out, not averaged)
The Slider:
Liriano’s slider probably won’t revert to it’s 91mph glory, but it’s promising to see him hit 86-87mph when needed.
The Change-Up:
This is where I think Liriano’s starting to set himself up for success. Liriano’s four-seamer has a lot of “rising” action on it, so his change-up (or his 2-seamer) doesn’t have to dive quite as much to create deception. The change-up last night was vastly improved and he wasn’t scared to use it. He left more than a couple belt-high and inside to righties, but for the most part he kept it down. You can tell that he’s still getting a feel for it as a secondary offering, but he’s definitely not as scared to throw it.
The End:
A complete return to form may not be in the cards for Liriano, but at some point you’ve got to give the man respect. I think Liriano has reached the point where we can begin bickering about his control rather than his stuff. I doubt he’ll return to the days of a 65% Contact-Rate, but a 70% rate — a 5% decrease from the previous two years — is definitely a possibility.
He’ll have to watch his walks, but Liriano looks like he’s starting to put everything together. The increased fastball velocity will give him more leniency on his off-speed stuff.
