Drafting former can’t miss prospects has always been the way that I, personally, win leagues. To attain the status of top-50 prospect, especially with pitching, the underlying skill-set has to be there. Pitchers anointed can’t-miss almost always have a good-to-great fastball along with at least one plus off-speed pitch. In most cases they’ll have a decent tertiary offering that allows them to get opposite-handed batters out, as well. As for hitters, they’ll either have the raw-power or pitch recognition skills to excel at the minor leagues, but they’ll often find themselves lacking plate-control or the ability to take a walk at the big league level.
I hate to undermine the difficulty associated with adapting to the big-league level, but these prospects are generally just an epiphany away from making a huge splash. The realization that they can no longer just cruise by on natural talent alone tends to breed the kind success that everyone saw in their future a year or two ago but overlooked in favour of the newest cant-miss prospect..
Ta Da: A List of Pitchers
David Price: I mentioned Price yesterday and realistically, he’s one of the best bets on the season to jump into the top-20 starting pitchers. 160 Strike-Outs doesn’t seems like a reasonably attainable number, at this point. If he can work his way through 180-200 Innings Pitched, the sky’s the limit.
Clay Buchholz: When you’re penciled in as the fifth starter, retaining your job isn’t a sure thing. In Boston however, injuries to one of the front-five will lead to a plethora of opportunities for Buchholz to prove his worth. Dice-K’s currently on the shelf and John Lackey hasn’t hit 180IP for two consecutive years. Josh Beckett’s no better, even if he’s finally starting to come together as the Texas workhorse that everyone predicted. In 2009, Buchholz drastically lowered his LD%(-3%) while increasing his GB% (+6%) over 92 IP. With an improved defense behind him, the only thing Buchholz needs to do is control his BB%, something that’s been steadily climbing. Buchholz is another pitcher that can notch 8K/9 on his way to posting an ERA around 4.00. For the life of me, I can’t understand why Buchholz change-up is popping up as a negative on Fangraphs’ Pitch-Values Chart. It’s a good pitch, but there’s a chance that he may be over-relying on it. I get the feeling that Buchholz is actually working in the zone too much, rather than letting his pitches do the work for him.
Phil Hughes: Jim Callis over at Baseball America tied Buchholz and Chamberlain at the hip, but from my perspective it’s always been Buchholz and Hughes. Phil Hughes put up deadly numbers as a reliever in 2009, while faltering as a starter: so don’t take the 10K/9 and 3BB/9 at face value. The biggest change by far was the ramping up of the slider into essentially a cutter. Hughes brought the heat with 94MPH on the fastball and 88.4MPH on the cutter. I have trouble believing he’d maintain velocity as a starter, but his curveball and change are workable. Hughes’ should, with Joba waiting in the wings, be one of the more enjoyable evolutions to watch. He’s capable of being a four-pitch command pitcher, or the fastball-cutter-curve pitcher we saw come out of the pen. If I’m watching pitch-distribution for anyone, it’s Hughes. I love his chances going forward, and wouldn’t be a tad bit surprised to see 50% fastballs, 25% Cutters, 15% Curves with the remaining 10% being split between his Change-Up and his old-school Slider (ie. taking 5mph off his cutter).
As a Jay’s fan, I could realistically see Phil Hughes learning to work the Cutter much like Halladay did. No, I’m not joking.
Jeff Neimann: Well that didn’t take long. Niemann’s already hurt. Either way, he’s absolutely massive and showed the ability to make his split-finger / change-up work for him. He’s been working his fastball between 91 and 94mph for a while now, and I don’t expect that to change. There’s no way that he can stay healthy, but if he does, he’ll put up numbers.
Ian Kennedy: How often do you have to be compared to Mike Mussina to actually become the “Moose”? While a switch of scenery could’ve helped Joba, Hughes or Kennedy become a legitimate front-end starter, it was Kennedy that found himself packing his bags. Now in Arizona, Kennedy actually has a chance to sink or swim. It appears as though the injury issues are behind him, and he’s finally ready to just pitch. In his first start as a D-Back, he went five innings while striking out 8 batters. He’s got four pitches that he can work and throw for strikes and I think Arizona might just be the place for him. After Webb gets healthy, he’ll find some starts, I’m sure.
Brandon Morrow: Sticking with the 2006 Draft, Morrow was the 5th pick (Kennedy was 21st). It seems as though the Blue Jays did a tonne of scouting in 2006, because they’ve nabbed Morrow and Drabek to go along with Travis Snider. The Jays want to keep Morrow in the rotation, but the BB-Rate is going to kill him. If he could ever get his BB/9 under 4.00, we might have a useful deep-leaguer because he still shows flashes of brilliance. He was hitting 98-99mph with ease in his opening start.
Homer Bailey: I hate Dusty Baker. I think a 7.5K/9 and a 3.5BB/9 are good possibilities. I’ll bank on a 4.05 ERA and maybe, possibly, a 1.40 WHIP
and done.
