With the season about 15 games old, I figured it was time to take a peak at the numbers, even if they’re not all that meaningful. Numbers are numbers, and I love numbers.
First up, F-Strike Percentage, or the percentage of first-pitch strikes. The talking heads will always preach the importance of getting that first strike for a pitcher. Depending on how you interpret that, they’re definitely onto something: it doesn’t mean you should *throw* a strike, but getting a strike is definitely beneficial.
With that said, there are a few terrific hitters that absolutely love first-pitch fastballs. Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez come to mind. They both put up 60-plus % F-Strike in 2009, but still swung at less than 50% of pitches. The rule of thumb when interpreting F-Strike is: You can make a high % work if you’re A) Patient or B) An absolute freak.
There’s no real way to quantify how Pablo Sandoval put together his 2009 season, or why Aaron Hill swung at everything, yet continued to see pitches in the strike-zone. Some hitters are just able to get the bat through the zone quick enough to turn a potential negative into a positive.
With that said, there are some interesting numbers:
Carlos Gonzalez (71.4% F-Swing): Everything about this kid is painful to watch. I drafted Carlos Gonzalez in a keeper league this year, hoping for the best, but alas, he looks like 2009 CarGo all over again. Gonzalez definitely falls into the “Freakishly Athletic” category and he could make his lack of discipline work. However, he swings at damn near everything (30% O-Swing for the last 3 years — 37% This Year). Gonzalez still hasn’t taken a SINGLE WALK, which isn’t a good sign. CarGo’s absolutely destroying the fastball this year, which he’s been seeing about 50% of the time. If it’s not the fastball though, CarGo struggles.
These are not great signs for CarGo, but before you overreact, remember it’s just 10 games.
Ian Stewart (40% F-Strike): Stewart’s currently ranked 30th in the standard Yahoo Fantasy League, but you may still be able to acquire the kid at a discounted price. Thus far in 2010, everything Stewart’s done has been picture-perfect. Stewart’s plate discipline in 2010 is up in every single category. Unlike his teammate, Carlos Gonzalez, Stewart’s starting off At-Bats with strikes only 40% of the time.
The big question with Stewart, is whether or not he can maintain his reasonable 20% K-Rate. In previous years, the one knock on Stewart has been his Strike-Out Rate where he topped 30% in each of his three MLB seasons. While some may point to Stewart’s .361 BABIP, you should probably expect an above average number from Stewart. Stewart’s been hitting the ball with authority, knocking 31% of his hits for line-drives; this wont continue, but it’s definitely a sign that the kid’s locked in.
Troy Tulowitzki (55% F-Strike): With CarGo at one end and Stewart at the other, Tulo sits at a happy medium when it comes to F-Strike%. Tulo’s .269 Batting Average isn’t stellar, especially after he rocketed up draft-boards this spring. The back-end of Tulowitzki’s plate discipline statistics is close enough to career averages to say that he’ll probably bounce back. Watching him hit is another story, though. Tulowitzki’s been having some serious issues with off-speed pitches in 2010 after making a living off them in previous years. Other than a tiny sample size, there’s nothing to say that Tulowitzki just isn’t going through a slump.
I get the feeling of the bunch, Stewart’s going to provide the best value by a mile. If he keeps his K-Rate down, he could be one of the better third basemen in 2010.
Putting yourself in an 0-and-1 count isn’t a great way to start off an at-bat, but there’s always a group of guys that succeed despite the set-back. Gonzalez definitely has the tools to hit just about anything, so while all the signs point to a huge down-turn, he’s still capable of posting very solid numbers. I wouldn’t be going out of my way to acquire the kid at this point because a slump’s on the horizon — unless of course, pitchers keep feeding him fastballs.
