Game Theory
The Fantasy Baseball Perfect Point System: Making It Work.
February 22, 2010 by kris · Leave a Comment
So, we’ve established the point system for batters and pitchers.
Now, we’ll put it together.
SB = 1.75
HR = 2.23
RBI = 0.75
R = 0.84
AB = -0.16
H = 0.962
W = 5.21
K = 0.43
SV = 2.23
IP = 1.85
BB or H = -0.5
ER = -1.5
Which presents us with these statistics for 2009 (100 pitchers / 100 hitters):
| NAME | Points |
| Albert Pujols | 425.03 |
| Zack Greinke | 406.19 |
| Felix Hernandez | 399.33 |
| Tim Lincecum | 396.25 |
| Justin Verlander | 379.66 |
| Ryan Braun | 379.34 |
| Adam Wainwright | 378.2 |
| Roy Halladay | 374.66 |
| Ryan Howard | 374.15 |
| Prince Fielder | 373.03 |
| Javier Vazquez | 368.76 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 361.45 |
| Danny Haren | 358.1 |
| Carl Crawford | 350.14 |
| Matt Kemp | 349.94 |
| Mark Reynolds | 349.78 |
| C.C. Sabathia | 348.2 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 344.38 |
| Mark Teixeira | 341.26 |
| Chris Carpenter | 337.92 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 335.97 |
| Aaron Hill | 335.74 |
| Chase Utley | 335.61 |
| Derek Jeter | 333.45 |
| Jason Bay | 329.41 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 327.19 |
| Jayson Werth | 326.7 |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 321.53 |
| Evan Longoria | 321.42 |
| Adam Lind | 320.77 |
| Joe Mauer | 319.52 |
| Ian Kinsler | 318.72 |
| Matt Cain | 315.65 |
| Josh Johnson | 313.43 |
| Jair Jurrjens | 312.55 |
| Bobby Abreu | 311.53 |
| Jon Lester | 310.57 |
| Derrek Lee | 310.27 |
| Brian Roberts | 309.81 |
| Kendry Morales | 309.32 |
| Robinson Cano | 308.07 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 306.59 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | 305.41 |
| Josh Beckett | 303.96 |
Looks okay from here, but would you really want Josh Johnson over Joe Mauer? Of course not, unless your league doesn’t have any position requirements.
That’s what we’ll get into next.
I currently have three sets of projections to work with: ESPN, CHONE, and MARCEL. Each of these has it’s strengths and weaknesses. For the most part, ESPN gets on the hype-train while CHONE and MARCEL heavily favour previous performance. If you mix ‘em all up, you end up with a nice balance of hype and history.
There’s one glaring problem, though (other than the fact that ESPN doesn’t chart H/AB, but rather just AVG). It’s impossible to predict the worth of any given player without knowing exactly how many teams are playing in your fantasy league and the roster and line-up requirements for those teams.
Unless there’s a huge drop-off, the difference between 10 and 12 team leagues isn’t going to be huge. However, the difference between 10 and 16 team leagues makes the majority of the adjusted statistics worthless. Secondly, if you’re in a 10 team league that requires 2 of each position players with 6 OF; this’ll be of very little use, as well.
So here’s how it’s going to go down from this point forward:
1. Make Our Universe ( C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF x 3, UTIL, SP x 2, RP x 2, P x 3) with 12 different teams.
2. Calculate the means, standard deviations, and distribution for players in OUR universe. Currently fangraphs and various other sites offer plenty of information regarding replacement level players. That’s all well and dandy, but those calculations don’t account for our position limitations.
3. Calculate a modifier for each position, relative to the overall points system.
4. Put everything in simple, human readable, graphs so that our retarded half-cousins can even understand it.
Our Problems, ahead of time:
There’s going to be absolutely no accounting for the fact that people do weird shit. Maybe someone only drafts 2 SP and 10 RP — That’s something we can’t account for. Also, while it makes sense to have your UTIL and BENCH spots filled with the highest output players; even though one-category players sit on benches. I can’t account for someone stashing Rajai Davis or Nyjer Morgan in their UTIL or BENCH spots because their team lacks speed across the board.
In all cases, we’re going to assume optimal strategy for your standard Yahoo League. The Bench will contain almost all starting pitchers except for maybe a handful of hitters.
…and that’s that, for now.
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