Original Top 35 first basemen in a keeper or dynasty league post available here.
1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production. If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.
2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years. Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden. There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.
3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30’s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.
4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way. A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career. Expecting high-30’s to low-40’s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate. Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman. If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.
5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter. At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.
That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter. Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%). Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.
6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here. Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck. He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.
7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show. Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster. In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home. His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.
8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record. Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material. Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP. Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.
9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis. The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio. If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right. If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him. Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall. I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?
10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time. He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up. If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.
11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful. However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008. He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year. If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.
12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter. He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait. The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.
13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year. He’ll probably decline 5 spots in the first basemen rankings each year, for the next 2 or 3 years.
14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.
15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.
16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect. It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.
17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG
18. Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet. If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets. You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.
19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power. Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%
20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own. If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper. With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.
20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee. Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness. Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.
21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.
22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years. If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.
23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average. Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base. If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.
24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record. He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.
25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.
26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent. Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect. If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk. Not sure where he plays, though.
27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings. Why did they bring Jacobs in? Anyone? He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.
It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.
28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36
28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35
28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38
28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33
29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.
30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.
31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.
32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.
33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.
34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow. Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.
I Push Rhymes Like Weight. 
