FTW

The Scott Rolen Trade

Finally, this Roy Halladay bull-shit is done and over with.  Unfortunately, I still think J.P. Ricciardi is a complete and total bone-head.  Toronto fans would have hated him, and it probably would have cost him his job, but he should have dealt Roy Halladay.  Instead, Ricciardi set infinite deadlines, each deadline more pointless than the previous.  Obviously, it’s going to come down to what teams are willing to pay next year at this time to really decide whether or not holding Halladay was the right move.

Ricciardi did redeem himself by trading arguably the Jay’s best player in 2009, Scottie “Too Hottie” Rolen.  I often wonder what kind of numbers Rolen would have at this point if Cito hadn’t stuck with his guns and hit Rios and Wells so early in the line-up for damn near half the season.

Either way, Rolen’s surprised me more than any other Blue Jay this year.  Aaron Hill? Naw.  Adam Lind? Naw… Ricky Romero?  Okay, Romero’s got ‘em but the point’s still the same:  Everyone wrote off Scott Rolen.  Watching Rolen run the bases is painful, yet somehow he manages to make diving stabs and terrific throws from the hole.  How?  I have no fucking clue.

So What Did the Blue Jays Get in Return For Rolen?

1.  First off, Rolen’s making a good chunk of change — So Bam!  That comes off the books.  Well, kinda sorta, the Blue Jays are paying a chunk of Rolen’s salary this year but are free and clear of the 11 Million that he’s owed next year.

2.  The 26-year old Edwin Encarnacion isn’t that far off, at least offensively.  Encarnacion’s defense is pretty terrible, but offensively he can rake.  Encarnacion’s still a hitter trying to find his way and his mojo as a hitter.  His contact and swing rates are average across the board, and he’s the proud owner of a 20% K-Rate to go along with a BB-Rate on the friendly side of 10 percent.  Essentially, Encarnacion’s a hitter that’s either a power hitter that’ll hit .250 with a 0.85 to 0.90 Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball rate and a solid amount of DINGERS! or a hard-hitting line drive hitter that’ll only hit 20 homers with a solid .270 average and a .360 OBP.  Unfortunately, injuries have erased any hope for a solid 2009 season — He’s barely hitting .210 in the 140 AB that he’s managed thus far.

However, In the 45 AB since the All-Star Game, Edwin’s been hitting .297 (AVG)/.407 (OBP)/.941 (OPS).  The Jays’ still have Encarnacion under contract for another year at around 4 Million before arbitration really kicks in.  If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy, this is already a steal for the Blue Jays even if they have to fork over a large portion of Rolen’s 2009 salary.

3.  Josh Roenicke seems to be a fairly average arm coming out of the pen, and while he was Cinci’s number 9 prospect going into the 2008 season, he’s well past the prospect stage.  As a 26-year old, Roenicke’s always posted very solid strike-out numbers even with mediocre control.  Roenicke could provide a very solid arm coming out of the pen, but he’s a small piece of the puzzle, especially in a crowded Blue Jays Bullpen.

4. Zachary Stewart is indeed the piece that completes the deal. The piece that makes Ricciardi look somewhat competent. The Reds drafted Stewart out of Texas Tech in the third round of the 2008 draft, and he’s torn through the minors.  Stewart spent time in both A and High-A in his draft year of 2008, and has since risen quickly through the remainder of the system to his current Triple-A roster position. Stewart’s got a mid-to-upper 90′s fastball to go along with a fairly decent slide-piece in the midish-80′s.  His ability to harness his velocity and spot his pitches will obviously determine just how far he goes, but at this point he’s fairing as well as anyone could’ve expected. Stewart has the potential to be a damn good reliever with a couple terrific out-pitches.  The true test of a reliever is whether or not he can keep his off-speed stuff “tight” and “late-breaking” to complement the heat.  At this point, Stewart doesn’t look to be that far off and other than consistency, he’s lookin’ damn good.

This trade looks to benefit the Jays in every imaginable way, but unfortunately it’s more of a complementary trade.  If the Jays would’ve moved Holliday, this trade would’ve made perfect sense:  Get as many 2010 contracts off the books as possible.  Unfortunately, at this point it looks to be nothing more than Rolen requesting a trade, and J.P. making the deal.  Originally I thought that JP was a genius, but this seems to be more of a case of an idiot getting lucky after Rolen requested a trade for personal reasons.

Unfortunately, things are going to get a lot worse with the departure of Rolen.  Ricciardi has made a habit of keeping around just enough quality talent to guarentee a mediocre draft-slot (that he’ll eventually waste on a prospect that’s “close”.)  The Toronto Blue Jays will never be the worst team in the MLB, but they’ll probably never finish third in the AL East ever again.