I wouldn’t own Jarrod if my life came down to it, I haven’t the fondest clue why he’s on my list of hated players, but he’s there and a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP aren’t going to change my mind. Anyone that owns Washburn is playing with fire and I’m not talking BIC lighter, I’m talking Molotov Cocktail.
Yet, after 20 starts and 133 Innings Pitched, I feel the need to look into this mysterious resurrection. Maybe Washburn got healthy, maybe he took some “supplements,” but that would make for a dull article.
What’s Changed?
Washburn’s always been able to get lefties out, save a ridiculous 2006 season, but he’s seen his WHIP deflate to a minuscule 0.72 against lefties while holding them to a 0.168 batting average.
It’s righties that’s Washburn’s had difficulty getting out. In 2007 and 2008, right-handed batters nearly hit .300 off Washburn, ballooning his WHIP to nearly 1.50. In 2009, Washburn’s similarly lowered his WHIP (1.20) and BAA (.244) against righties.
So How’d He Do It?
Popular belief leans towards Washburn’s new fangled two-seam sinking fastball. The pitch itself isn’t spectacular, it’s shockingly average actually, but considering that Washburn can throw every pitch in the book, it’s a useful pitch.
What does stand out is Washburn’s across the board improvement. He not only added an extra pitch, all of his other pitches just got inexplicably better. Normally when a pitcher adds velocity, he’ll sacrifice movement and vice-versa. Washburn however has managed to add velocity across the board, while simultaneously increasing movement.
Washburn’s getting more swings and less contact by cutting and sinking his fastball, which is generally a good combo. The mixture of these pitches with his average off speed stuff has resulted in a few more missed bats, but he still doesn’t have a true “out pitch.” In turn, his K% has remained stagnant at around five and a half batters per nine.
The Other Stuff…
Washburn benefits from Seattle’s spacious confines as Safeco almost always falls in the bottom third of parks for home-runs.
In addition to the park, Seattle’s defense has been uncontrollably awesome. Between Gutierrez, Ichiro, Chavez and Langerhans, the Seattle Mariners have one of the best outfields in the business. All of their regulars have a positive UZR/150 and their team defense is second only behind the San Francisco Giants.
…The Other Stuff Part II — The Bad Stuff.
The move to Detroit and Comerica Park shouldn’t hurt Washburn too badly. Comerica plays similarly to Safeco on deep flies, and the Tigers defense sans Magglio is also fairly solid.
Washburn’s posting a career best BABIP of .249, almost 50pts below his career average. Furthermore, Washburn’s leaving almost 80% of runners on base, which comes close to matching his career best of 82% LOB from 2005.
Washburn’s posting yet another career high when it comes to keeping long-flies in the park, posting a 6.4% HR/FB percentage. What makes this even more concerning is that the majority of Washburn’s fly balls are leaving the infield (8.1% IFFP.)
Finally, the quality of batters that Washburn’s faced haven’t exactly been stellar:
Against the teams below .500 (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Toronto, Arizona and San Diego,) Washburn has pitched incredibly well with a 1.17 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the course of 76 IP.
Against teams above .500 (Detroit, Anaheim, New York, Tampa, Texas, Colorado,) Washburn hasn’t faired nearly as well posting a 4.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a couple epic blow-ups against the Angels and Yankees.
It makes sense that his numbers would be worse facing the tougher squads, but considering that Washburn’s faced fairly poor teams 60% of the time, is at least moderately interesting.
Luckily for Washburn, he was traded to the AL Central and the Tigers have Baltimore, Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle mixed in with their series against Boston, Tampa, and Los Angeles.
Things get even better in September with series against Cleveland x 2, Kansas City x 2, Toronto, Minnesota x 2, before the Tigers face Tampa and the White Sox x 2.
From the looks of it, the Tigers have 12 series against mediocre squads and only 6 against .500 or better teams.
Finally, the end…
Washburn has improved, there’s no doubting that. He’s also gotten fairly lucky as noted by the large difference between his ERA and FIP. You should expect him to come back down to earth, but he also has a lot of easy games coming up. He’s faced the majority of these teams before, and dominated them, but I’d be worried the second and third time that Washburn faces the same teams.
