FTW Football Edition

Darwin Had It Right: A Mini Football Essay for 2009.

The schizophrenic market of the NFL casts free agency and the salary cap against each other to form a league of parody and profit — market intervention at it’s finest.  Everybody wins yet alternative revenue streams provide adequate incentive for teams to strive for success rather than mediocrity.  The NFL Draft levels the playing field further as entrants are often well seasoned college veterans — as mandated by the league office –  capable of contributing immediately.

With parody abroad, strategic maneuvering on the field, at the draft table, or in the general manager’s office can transform a loser into a winner almost instantaneously.   Dynasties result from feats of genius rather than depth of pocketbooks, reinforcing the American belief that if you work hard, you’ll succeed.

It’s survival of the fittest, at it’s finest: 32 NFL teams all governed by the same rules.  Each subsequent adaptation, whether in game, in season, or during the off-season effects a teams chance of survival.  Winning strategies are adopted by the league, while losing strategies and players for that matter, fall by the wayside.  As we’ve seen though, what’s good for the goose isn’t always good for the gander.

Logically, the conditions for success are not always strictly congruent. While the budgetary constraints are identical, the environment obviously varies with the American landscape.  Eight of a teams’ sixteen games are played at home, along with four others played against division foes consisting of teams based in the same region of the country.

Domes and their artificial climates aside, teams must adapt their style of play to their playing environment.  An adapted scheme, combined with the correct athletes, will win more often than it loses and often gain a playoff birth.  A team adapted to perfect weather will occasionally be forced into an uncomfortable environment in the playoffs, and thus the old NFL adage of building a team that travels: In essence, a team that runs the ball and plays defense.

The most populous and arguably best adapted, yet least specialized, mammal outside of the human species is the basic rat.  It’s capable of flourishing in every imaginable environment, whether freezing cold or scorching hot.  It’s main advantage is it’s simplicity, just like a running game;  It succeeds regardless of rain, wind, snow or 110 degree heat.  The rat could be more specialized, but it wouldn’t succeed in as many situations or climates.

Take college football and their almost exclusively regional schedule combined with their advantage of only playing out of conference games that they approve and schedule.  This breeds gazelles rather than rats, or Gators if you will.  The SEC has repeatedly obliterated their Big-10 adversaries with superior speed at every position.  In the entire 2008 season, the Florida Gators had to travel as far north as Tennessee.  Additionally, for both historical, financial and logistical reasons, the NCAA championship is rotated between climates that benefit speed.

Obviously, you’d expect teams best suited to the National Championship environment to flourish while teams adapted to multiple climates to lose.  What exactly would happen if the National Championship was played in Madison, WI. rather than in California, Miami, or Arizona is debatable.  It’s a simple principle: If an adapted team doesn’t have to leave it’s home-climate to get to the championship and the championship is also played in favorable conditions, it will succeed.

In the NFL, we’ve seen adaptation and subsequent success by many teams lately.  Kurt Warner has lead both the Cardinals and the Rams, two highly specialized teams, to the Superbowl.  In 2008, the Cardinals were defeated handily both times they visited the East Coast late in the season, yet still reached the Superbowl behind a playoff run with games in Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona and the Superbowl in Tampa (all favourable climates).

The Pittsburgh Steelers, eventual Superbowl Champions, gradually increased the skill of their passing game through the draft while maintaining a stout defense and impact ground game.  The Superbowl itself was closer than it ever should have been, but even the Arizona Cardinals — a perfectly adapted warm-weather team – will lose to superior talent.

Of course, there’s always an exception to the rule and Bill Belichick, the mad genius himself, provides this exception.  The New England Patriots possess a skilled defense that’s well adapted to the chilly New England environment, but the offense seems groomed for southern success until you delve deeper into the effects that acclimate weather has on a franchise.

The offensive line, while not spectacular, provides ample pass protection against larger opponents in even the worst weather.  A combination of continuity, stamina and agility works for the offensive line in colder weather and lackluster footing.  The receiving corps, and more importantly the entire passing game, is based on the strong armed Brady getting the ball underneath to Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker.  In poor conditions, the offense will always have the advantage if it is predicated on agility rather than track-speed.  The offensive player will always know where he’s cutting to, giving him ample time to plant and re-direct; whereas the defender must react, placing him at a severe disadvantage.

It’s difficult to understand how a Belichick’s mixture of West Coast and Spread offense is adapted colder weather until you consider the cold weather innovations in the NFL.  The epigram,  a running team is a team that travels, dates back well before the invention of field-turf, underarmor, Tom Brady’s famous glove, or even multiple footballs.  The maxim itself may even be outdated, in terms of temperature and precipitation anyways.  Wind is, and always will be a factor, and thus the importance of a strong-armed quarterback leading a short passing game.

The New England defense, like many of the other cold weather defenses, relies essentially on the defensive equivalent of the short pass.  The multiple blitz is successful because receivers have issues getting off the snap and the ball hangs up in the wind longer, allowing everyone to close in on.  While effectiveness is lost in perfect playing conditions, an attacking defense travels south far better than a basic defense travels north.  Unfortunately, teams like Chicago and Green Bay face the sad fact that they’ll face perfect conditions in both Minnesota and Detroit, therefore restricting the aggressiveness of both personnel and scheme.

Superior talent at most positions will always win a ball-game, but draft day blunders and free-agent contracts will almost always force you to field a specialized team.  It’s no longer an option to simply field the best team, although it is possible to have a competitive advantage through superior coaching and free agent frugality.

The question for NFL franchises, particularly the ones in the North, is whether or not winning your division is enough.  Teams such as Indianapolis, Miami and Arizona, will only go as far as their home-field advantage takes them.  Teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia and even New England will be exposed when playing extremely specialized warm-weather teams in perfect conditions.

Of course, in the end, great teams will always defeat lesser teams.  Every year however, there may only be one, or possibly two truly great teams and even they can be beaten given the right combination of scheme and weather.

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