Coming into the season, I had a rather unhealthy obsession with three pitchers, each from a different tier: Zach Greinke in the top tier worked out well, Chris Young has dissappointed thus far as a mid-tier starting pitcher, and Rich Hill has found his way back to the big leagues which I’ll deem a rather large success.
This is why I love Rich Hill, just incase you weren’t a fantasi-holic back in 2007: 11-8, 195 IP, 183 K, 3.92 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. Unfortunately, Rich Hill lost it in 2008, essentially Rick Ankiel-ing the situation. Rich Hill managed to walk 18 batters in 19.2 IP, yet somehow posted a 4.12 ERA. Injuries and ineffectiveness sent Rich Hill to the minors, where instead of improving he deteriorated into a shell of his old self, walking 28 batters in 26 IP.
An off-season trade to the Orioles and a brief, yet consistently wild, stint in the minors later, and Rich Hill has found himself back in the Show. Hill’s return to the MLB has more to do with the current state of the Orioles’ pitching than his success in Triple-A. Yes, Hill did post a sparkling 1.35 ERA in 13.1 IP down on the farm, but he also continued his wild ways, walking 9 batters over that stretch.
I still love me some Rich Hill though, not because he’s a fireballer (he only hits 90mph,) but instead because he’s got one dirty-dirty 12-6 Curveball.
Four starts in, and Rich Hill’s sitting on a 4.15 ERA, a 2-and-0 record, after having faced the Royals, Nats, Blue Jays and Mariners. While the Blue Jays spanked Hill for 7 Runs (6ER,) Hill’s yet to walk more than 4 batters in a game — Good Start! What really opened the Fantasy Gods’ eyes was Hill’s most recent start against the best team in the Pacific Northwest — Yooooouurrr, Seattle Mariners. Hill went 7 Innings, holding the Mariners scoreless, while only giving up 2 hits and 3 WALKS! and striking out seven! He did only strike out Beltre x 2 (18% K Rate,) Balentien x2 (24.5% K Rate,) Branyan (30% K Rate,) Rob Johnson (29% K Rate) and Mike Sweeney (13% K Rate,) so it’s really not saying ALL that much, but it’s a start.
Hill’s fastball is sticking around the velocity that made him effective as a Cubbie (89mph AVG, 91 MAX) in his most recent start against the Mariners. Furthermore, while Hill’s not pounding the zone, he’s close enough on most of his fastballs to warrant a giant exhale:
Location of Rich Hill vs. Seattle Mariners
Against a more disciplined team at the plate, Hill may run into some trouble but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it. For now, he appears to be close enough to the zone, especially when he needs to be, to keep his walk total under 4 batters per 9. What’s interesting is Hill’s release point — While I didn’t watch the game, I did notice Rich Hill has dropped down to throw an off-speed offering:
Rich Hill's Release Point Vs. Mariners
Rich Hill’s release point is fairly well clustered, and should lend credibility to my man-crush. When a pitcher loses it, it’s almost always release point / mechanics oriented, at least to start. In the end, it obviously becomes a mental issue which is often harder to fix, even against lesser competition in the minors.
Hill’s fastball is painfully straight, so he has to rely on changing speeds and locating. Once Hill starts mixing in his Change-Up and Slider, to previous rates — he should give himself a bit more leeway.
Prior to his Seattle start, Hill averaged a mere 88 mph on his fastball against the Jays and only hit 89mph on four occasios. In the start before that against the Nats, Hill only hit 89mph once and averaged 86.8mph. This is what makes Hill hitting 90mph against the Mariners on eight different occasions, such a solid indicator of Hill putting it all together.
The days of Rich Hill posting a sub-1.20 WHIP are probably over, and even if they aren’t — it’ll be a pleasant surprise. However, if Rich Hill can get his BB-per-9 to somewhere around the 3.5 range, he’ll have the potential to be quite effective. Facing the toughest division in baseball on a weekly basis probably won’t help, but it’s not that out there to predict a 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 7 K per 9…. is it?
It probably is, but this is why I love Rich Hill.
Just incase you were wondering, the Orioles have Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta, the Mets, Philly, Florida and Washington coming up before they get back into the teeth of the AL EAST. I’m sure you could find 3 or 4 good starts for Hill in that stretch, with some of them being sans designated hitter.
