FTW

It’s The Offense, Stupid.

Finding a break-out player is damn easy if you know what you’re looking for, and here’s what to look for (in order):

1. Does he play in a good offense?
2. Does he play in a good park?
3. Does he have a skill-set that could translate into major league success given ample playing time?

Ben Francisco of the Cleveland Indians fits the profile perfectly and has the stat-line to prove it:  Over the first couple months of the season Francisco has compiled a .275 AVG / .350 OBP / .458 SLG line to go along with 9 SB.

Here’s why I love me some Louis Ben Francisco going forward, though:  Even with Hafner and Sizemore out, the Indians still put up runs in bunches (The Indians currently rank fourth in runs scored behind only the Rays, Dodgers and Yankees.)  However, Francisco can also be incredibly useful in situations where the Indians aren’t scoring quite as many runs — In a sense, you’re hedging your bets by picking up a player like Francisco.  If he’s not scoring runs, or driving them in, I can promise you that he’ll be stealing bases.

Ben Francisco may have only stole 4 bases in 9 attempts prior to this year, but his minor league numbers show he’s quite the capable base-stealer. Over his entire MiLB career, Francisco went 124-for-158 in stolen base attempts; averaging about 20 SB a year and often surpassing that number when healthy.  Francisco also showcased potential 20-HR power and an above average slugging percentage – it’s actually quite surprising that it took Ben Francisco this long to find regular at-bats at the big-league level.

Francisco’s a legit 20/20 guy, but he does have flaws.  The main concern has been his lack of contact or high K-Rate, and his lack of a batter’s eye. Even while seeing fewer pitches in the zone in 2009, Francisco has managed to swing less, make better contact in the zone, and maintain his relatively high line-drive percentage of 19%.  While Francisco’s 20% K-Rate is still sub-par, he’s more than capable of functioning at a .40 – .50 BB:K rate, given his LD%.

Francisco’s luck indidcaters are generally a wash, his .315 BABIP and 10.2 HR/FB percent are nothing spectacular one way or another.  What’s intriguing about Francisco is his brand-spankin’ new line-up spot with the rash of Indians injuries.  Francisco’s spent the previous two games batting 2nd in the line-up squished between the hot-hitting Asdrubal Cabrera and the healthy Victor Martinez. Whether or not Francisco can stick in the two-hole largely depends on this stretch of games that Sizemore’s missing.  Even if Francisco gets thrown back to the ass end of the Indians line-up, he’ll still be batting between the Garkos and Shoppach’s of the world which isn’t all that terrible.

Of the players with 9 or more steals, only Jason Barlett, Matt Kemp, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth, Vernon Wells, and Mark Reynolds can lay claim to 5 or more HR.  I’ve obviously tinkered with the stats, but it does showcase Francisco’s unique blend of power and speed.  All that’s realistically missing, assuming Francisco can maintain a .270 BA (which shouldn’t be a problem,) are the RUNS and RBI.

In fantasy baseball, owners take a lot of stupid risks that often yield very little pay-out.  Rather than taking a risk on an often injured player or a 20-year old kid, I’d much rather bet that Ben Francisco finds a way to permanently move up in the line-up.  If Francisco sticks atop the Indians’ line-up, his 65 RBI / 65 R line suddenly becomes a 75 RBI / 80 RUN season without Francisco doing a damn thing.

Considering Francisco’s only seen 32 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and is currently exhibiting a reverse platoon split, there’s definitely room for improvement. I’m sure when all’s said and done, Francisco will come tantalizingly close to posting a 20/20 season and there’s a  50/50 shot that each of the starting outfielders for the Cleveland Indians post 20/20 seasons. Shin-Soo Choo may be garnering the majority of the hype with his .296 / 30 R / 7 HR / 31 RBI / 6 SB – line, but Ben Francisco isn’t a bad option either.