There’s a lot of big names posting terrible averages and with about 70 games in the book, now’s the time to start worrying.
Brian Giles (.191 AVG) — Giles is awful and his giant contract doesn’t help things. Obviously, you probably don’t want any part of him going forward unless you need a self destructive activity that’s less harmful than drinking or cutting.
Chris Davis (.200 AVG) — I thought Davis was starting to turn things around, but his recent golden sombrero makes for 11 games in which Davis struck out at least 3 times. Davis is currently sporting a 45% strike-out rate which is…bad, real, real, real bad. His overall Contact Percent is down 11% from last year, and he’s having one hell of a time. With that said, Justin Smoak is killing the ball in AA, hitting .325 with a .947 OPS and may eventually snag Davis’ job. At some point however, Davis is going to catch fire and start crushing the ball. Davis should be on the waiver-wire, but if I had an extra roster spot I’d definitely be cycling Davis between my bench and the waiver-wire until he catches fire. You’ll only get a few weeks out of him, but 10 HR in 20 Games is still a possibility.
Chris Young (.204 AVG) – Finally, an awful average that has at least a lil’ bit of hope attached too it. Chris Young should at least be able to hit .240 for the rest of the season, with a little bit of luck. Young’s BABIP is sitting quite low at .250, and regression should be in order. More importantly, it’s about time that Young starts turning some of those fly-balls into home-runs. Young’s infield-fly-ball percentage is damn-near 30%, and he’s only converting 7% of fly-balls into home-runs which is well below his career average. Unfortunately, Young’s banged up and Geraldo Parra is playing quite well for a youngster. Remember, if Chris Young gets regular at-bats he’s still on pace for yet another 20/20 season (according to ZiPS.)
Garrett Atkins (.205 AVG) — Going into the season, I was worried that a trade would turn Garrett Atkins into THE fantasy flop. I didn’t think that a career .300 hitter would magically transform into a .200 hitter with an OPS below .600! Atkins has been faced with some pretty terrible luck in the BABIP department (.216 BABIP / .312 Career BABIP,) but expecting a return to previous levels is crack-headed-ish. Atkins is still walking and striking out at career rates, but he’s just not hitting the damn ball. Stomaching Atkins’ current 14% line-drive rate is a tough thing to do and unless you’re in a very deep league.
David Ortiz (.207 AVG) – Watching his at-bats has probably skewed my view of Ortiz, but he’s getting around (without massively cheating) on fastballs again. Ortiz will never be the .950 OPS machine, but he’s still got something left in the tank. Ortiz hadn’t slugged below .500 since his days with the Twins, and he’ll have to destroy pitching to avoid that fate in 2009. At this point, Ortiz is nothing more than a useful bench player that’ll provide you with some streaky power.
Jay Bruce (.210 AVG) – Probably the sexiest name on this list, Jay Bruce just can’t seem to get things going. There’s about a million reasons to buy low on Bruce. The plate discipline skills are there — Bruce is walking 10% of the time, and has cut his K-Rate 5% during his sophomore year. The tell-tale sign is Bruce’s .199 BABIP, even though he’s merely driving 14% percent of balls. The signs are there, and Bruce is making solid improvements in contact and plate discipline, but his 16 HR will make him a tough buy. There’s no doubt in my mind that Bruce is a top-100 player from this point forward.
Jason Giambi (.212 AVG) — A funny thing happens when you age, you get slower. He’s still got all sorts of pop in his bat, and the Athletics are due for a power surge at some point. I’d expect Giambi to be useful, but anything above .235 AVG the rest of the way is askin’ for a bit too much. 30 Home Runs is still well within the reach of Giambi, even in Oakland.
Dan Uggla (.216 AVG) — I love me some Dan Uggla. Uggla’s hitting the same amount of line-drives as any other year, but his BABIP is 60 pts below his career average. Last year’s 18% HR/FB was a bit of a fluke but like Giambi, Uggla should get to 30 HR on the year. Uggla’s walking more and striking out less than last year and his improved discipline will eventually pay off. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Uggla hit .260 or better from this point forward. Buy, Buy, Buy.
J.J Hardy (.216 AVG) — I knew Bill Hall would be awful, but J.J. Hardy too? Hardy’s another guy that should improve at least somewhat, as he’s sporting a .237 BABIP. Hardy’s exhibited steady decline since 2006 in almost all Swing/Contact categories and Line Drive Rate, which is worrisome but he’s still quite capable of hitting .275 for the rest of the year. Do the Brew-Crew go into next year with Escobar and Gamel pencilled in as starters? It’s really starting to look that way…
Ken Griffey Jr. (.220 AVG) — Yah, there’s really no reason to own Ken Griffey Jr. at this point, unless you’re in a nostalgia league. In that case, Giambi’s probably the better pick.
Geovany Soto (.222 AVG) — I just acquired Soto, and you should probably think on it too. Generally a 20% line-drive rate and a .262 BABIP don’t go together: I’m banking on the BABIP coming up, and the LD rate staying put. Soto’s got an outside shot of topping 20HR, but he should hit .280ish the rest of the way. More than a couple hot-streaks are also in store as Chicago warms up…
Jimmy Rollins (.223) – 47 Stolen Bases make up for a whole lotta age related decline and in 2009, we see just what decline Rollins has incurred. His .223 Batting Average should definitely come up as his BABIP gets closer to .300 than it’s current .231 position. The days of being an elite fantasy shortstop are well behind Rollins though, but if he can get on base he’ll have a shot at one last hurrah. In the Phillies line-up, he’ll score a shit-tonne of runs and be given ample opportunity to run at free will. I just don’t see Rollins hitting above .260 on the season though…
Grady Sizemore (.223) – Sizemore was a first round pick in most drafts, and owners knew they’d be getting a 4.5 category performer. Owners expected an incredibly average .270 batting average — nothing special, but nothing that was going to hurt you either. Unfortunately, it just doesn’t seem to be clicking for Sizemore, and the only discenerable difference is contact percentage on balls outside of the zone (down 10%.) Sizemore’s BABIP is sitting a bit low at .255 at this point, but even given the best of luck, he’s going to have some issues getting his BA over .260 for the year. With that said, if you can get a player with first round talent — you gotta pull the trigger. Sizemore comes in as the 218th best player in Yahoo! fantasy baseball, and maybe he’s out for the season…but the temptation…oh the temptation.
