Jordan Zimmermann busted out of the gate and got shit poppin’ by shutting down two half-decent offenses in the Mets and Braves. Zimmermann hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in the month of May, posting a 6.98 ERA in 5 May starts. While May’s been a very forgettable month for Jordan Zimmermann, there have been a couple bright spots:
Zimmermann’s still posting a strike-out per inning and his 31Ks are good for 10th in the bigs over the last month. More importantly, Zimmermann’s keeping his BB% rate under 3 batters per 9 which translates into a 3.44 K:BB.
Along with solid control, Zimmermann’s mixing his pitches well and attacking hitters with a 66.5% first pitch strike rate (MLB AVG is 57.8%.)
Aside from a couple of rate-stats, the only other bright spot is Zimmermann’s final May start against the Orioles. The Orioles have a surprisingly effective offense, so going 7 IP with 6H, 1BB, 1HR and 8K is quite an achievement.
So is Zimmermann worth buying low?
Zimmermann’s cumulative ERA of 5.71 is quite a bit higher than his FIP of 4.26. The incompetence of the Nationals’ last placed defense will generally render an ERA higher than expected, but Zimmermann’s still been quite unlucky.
Zimmermann’s currently only stranding 66.5% of batters, including an awful LOB of 58% in the month of May. In addition, batters are hitting .343 on balls in play off of Zimmerman which should regress to the .300-range.
Zimmermann does have quite a bit of break-through potential as he’s got the hard-part, the control part, down pat. If a 4.00-4.25 ERA with great strike-out numbers plays in your league, Zimmermann has enough potential to outweigh the rookie-risk.
Unfortunately, Zimmermann and the Nationals have one-heck-offa-schedule coming up:
at Philly
vs. SF
vs. NYM
vs. Cinci
at Tampa
at New York
vs. Toronto
vs. Boston
San Francisco and the injury-plagued Mets are the only breathers on the Nationals’ schedule, and Zimmermann’s not even afforded the luxury of playing them on the road at two of the friendlier pitchers-parks out there. He’s definitely got the stuff, but performing better than your statistics suggest doesn’t mean squat when you’ve got a schedule like that coming up.
Considering that Zimmermann will undoubtedly suffer from the late season dead arm syndrome that almost all rookies go through, he’s a risky add — but high-strikeout numbers make up for a whooooole lot…
