Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects.
The deal made sense at the time as Teixeira was expected to re-sign with the Braves for a tidy sum. With Andruw Jones coming off the books, the Braves would have cash to throw around and the possibility of a long-term switch-hitting duo of Chipper and Teixeira would excite anyone.
At the very least, the Braves dealt from their organizational strengths: Saltalamacchia was a terrific prospect and ranked as the 36th overall prospect by Baseball America, but was blocked at catcher by then 23-year old, Brian McCann.
With Saltalamacchia the centerpiece, the additional pieces were 2 of the remaining 3 Braves’ prospects in the 2006 edition of Baseball America’s Top-100. Elvis Andrus ranked 65th with an ETA of 2010, and Matt Harrison was the 90th best prospect who appeared close to major league ready. The Rangers luckily declined the Braves final top-100 prospect, baby-faced Brent Lillibridge.
The Braves were loaded with pitching prospects (Tommy Hanson, anyone?) and Yunel Escobar and Brent Lillibridge seemed to be capable shortstops negating the loss of the injury-plagued Harrison, and 18-year old Andrus.
In the play-off hunt with Canadian, Scott Thorman, manning first base was a problem for the Braves. Teixeira was a premiere upgrade at the Braves’ weakest position and although the Braves missed out on the play-offs — it wasn’t that bad of a trade, was it?
Ron Mahay has proven to be a LOOGY to the bitter end and is still pitching moderately well for the Kansas City Royals at not-quite 38-years old. In 2007, Mahay compiled a 2.25 ERA in 28 Innings for the Atlanta Braves and was generally considered a useful bullpen member.
The Braves gave up two more prospects though, one of which was Beau Jones who’s currently in AA-Frisco as a 22-year old. Jones has a live arm and has posted around a strike-out per inning at every level thus far. At the time, Jones impressed with his mid-90′s fastball and solid hook. Baseball America ranked Jones as Atlanta’s 10th best prospect in 2006 and he has a fairly realistic shot at eventually making the show as a number 4 or 5-type guy.
The final prospect was a doozey in Neftali Feliz. In rookie ball at the time, 18-year old Feliz had garnered some buzz, but wasn’t quite as hyped as some of the other Braves pitching prospects. Scouts saw Feliz’s fastball touch triple digits and were floored, it was just a matter of whether or not he could control his mid-90′s heat. The MiLB is filled with guys that can throw hard but all too often can’t harness their power. Feliz had only thrown 56 Innings for the Braves at that point, but had impressed mightily regardless of his control issues (4+BB/9).
At this point, Feliz was a high-ceiling prospect, nowhere near Baseball America’s 93rd best prospect as he was in 2008, and definitely not the same pitcher that Baseball America currently ranks as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball.
The ETA of the now 20-year old Feliz shot from 2011 to 2009, over the course of a single year. Arguably the 4th best prospect in the deal behind Salty, Harrison and Andrus, Neftali Feliz may turn out to be a steal and considering his current trade value; Feliz could already be considered the best value in the deal.
It’s hard not to wonder whether or not Feliz would have been included in the deal if the Braves would have acquired their left-handed bullpen help elsewhere.
We all know how this ends, the Braves didn’t make the playoffs and finished third in the NL East. Teixeira was awarded a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar arbitration settlement, but was shipped off to the Angels at the deadline after it became clear that a long-term deal wasn’t likely. Teixeira played out his year, and is now a member of the New York Yankees…because his wife likes shopping?
In retrospect, the Atlanta Braves obviously gave up too much as they were unable to resign Teixeira. They did manage to turn Teixeira into Casey Kotchman, and the Angels’ tenth overall prospect in Stephen Marek but that comes nowhere close to negating the loss of Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Harrison, Andrus and Jones.
The hypothetical question still remains: In a standard dynasty league with no limit on years-kept, would you trade Mark Teixeira for the aforementioned Rangers’ haul?
Teixeira, although currently hitting .182 AVG / .354 OBP / .338 SLG for the New York Yankees, is a lock to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs well into his thirties. In the initial draft of a 12-team dynasty league, Teixeira would go late first round / early second round, as he’s still only 29 years old.
Andrus, the defensively gifted speedster, already has shifted Michael Young to third base and is hitting a respectable .274 in his first big league season. Andrus is still raw, posting a 0.33 BB:K ratio and a .308 OBP, but he’s already stolen 3 bases without getting caught. In Double-A Frisco last year, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 Games which lead the projection models to predict anywhere from 29 to 51 stolen bases given starters at-bats. In the potent Texas Rangers’ line-up, Andrus should quickly become an above-average fantasy contributor based solely on his SB & R potential.
Saltalamacchia, after an injury plagued 2008 effort, seems to be back on track — well, sort of. Saltalamacchia, a switch-hitting catcher, has always sported an above-average eye; generally keeping his BB% on the right side of 10%. In 2009 thus far, Saltalamacchia is hitting a respectable .279, but has only walked 5% of the time while striking out nearly 35% of the time. Saltalamacchia’s line of .279 AVG / .313 OBP / .443 SLG is driven up by his ridiculously lucky .395 BABIP and regression should be expected. Saltalamacchia hasn’t come close to fulfilling expectations, but continues to hold off Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Saltalamacchia is still only 24-years old and should continue to improve. Saltalamacchia isn’t among the elite fantasy catchers, but considering his age, he still should rank somewhere around the top-12 dynasty league catchers.
The Rangers couldn’t have dreamt of a better progression for Neftali Feliz. As mentioned earlier, Feliz has tremendous stuff and is well-deserving of Baseball America’s 10th overall prospect label.
In deeper keeper leagues or dynasty leagues with a minor league system, Neftali is a must-own. Playing in Arlington should temper expectations, but he still has a dirty repitoire. Of Baseball America’s top-20 prospects, Number 10 Feliz sits in admirable company: Number 2 – David Price, Number 4 – Tommy Hanson, Number 7 – Brett Anderson, Number 9 – Madison Bumgarner, and Number 11 – Trevor Cahill.
Feliz should see some action late this year as a September call-up, so long as Texas doesn’t miraculously stick around in the playoff hunt. Expecting dominance this year may be a stretch, but Feliz could be dominant as soon as late next year.
Finally, onto Beau Jones and Matt Harrison, the final two peices in the deal. Unless you’re in a 50-team dynasty league, you’re probably forgetting about Jones and Harrison. You should probably keep an eye on the intriguing Matt Harrison though. Harrison’s had some elbow issues and 2009 hasn’t been pretty, but the talent’s still there. Harrison’s a four-pitch pitcher featuring 91mph fastball, 86mph slider, 76mph curveball, and an 82mph change-up. At this point, his ERA is north of 6.00 and he’s only managed to strike out 12 batters which matches the number he’s walked, in 26 Innings Pitched.
Saltalamacchia and Harrison were arguably the two biggest pieces to the original Teixeira trade, but to this point have been overshadowed by the massive potential of Andrus and Feliz.
In a deep keeper league of 14 teams or more, Teixeira for Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia and Harrison would be an interesting one to say the least. Anything under 14-teams and you probably have to lean the way of Teixeira because of that old saying, “a bird in the basket is worth two in the bush, ” or put in language that we can understand: ” a girl in the sac is worth ten numbers in your pocket. ”
In keeper leagues, prospects are nice and all but it never turns out the way it should.
Some Readings:
Rangers Happy With Teixeira Trade Returns, MLB.com
Rangers Future Bright Thanks To Teixeira Trade, MySanAntonio.com
Baseball America’s Top 100 (2009) (2008) (2007)
Braves trade Teixeira for Kotchman, ESPN.
