It’s Sunday night and I’ve been busy as hoot the last week, but here’s a quick update using FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching (normalized to ERA.)
As we all know, baseball’s a game of variables, too many variables too isolate, so we end up with standard baseball statistics lying to our faces like a cheating girlfriend.
Clayton Kershaw ( 4.91 ERA / 4.16 FIP ) is actually putting up better ratios than last year. His walk rate’s almost identical, and he’s striking out almost a full batter more per nine innings. Kershaw’s BABIP is a smidgen low (.280 BABIP,) so any improvement in his 67% strand-rate will probably be negated. When batters are only hitting 13.3% line-drives off of you, things are looking good. His WHIP will never be terrific as he’ll continue to walk around 4 BB/9, but he’s still one of the few pitchers that can get to 200K on the season.
Ubaldo Jiminez ( 5.45 ERA / 3.65 FIP) is an interesting case, as are all Colorado pitchers. Much like Kershaw, Jiminez will post an eye-popping K/9 ratio, but struggles with command (5.45 BB/9.) Batters are currently hitting an eye-popping .344 on balls in play even though he’s allowing 21% of hits for Line Drives. When all is said and done, Jiminez should settle down and show improvement from 2008. His WHIP will still be average at best, but there’s no way it stays at 1.61 the entire seasaon.
Chris Young ( 4.76 ERA / 3.39 FIP ) has been having some issues holding base-runners at bay. Dexter Fowler took him for five bases a couple weeks ago, and Nick Hundley is probably still having nightmares. Unless this starts getting to Young mentally, he’s still a terrific option in all formats. Young is generally the BABIP-King as his career average is .269 with his past three seasons being his best ( 2006-.237 / 2007-.252 / 2008 -.266). Young’s current BABIP sits at .314 and should definitely regress to the .265-region. Young’s one of the few cheaper pitchers that’ll contribute across the board with 7-8K/9, 1.15-WHIP, and a sub-4.00 ERA.
Todd Wellemeyer ( 4.75 ERA / 3.80 FIP ) burst onto the scene last year and manages to succeed without a sexy K-Rate. Batters are hitting .316 off of him after he held them to .248 in 2008. Wellemeyer’s BABIP of .356 probably has quite a bit to do with this and should come down. Expecting Wellemeyer to repeat his .273 BABIP of 2008 is probably asking too much, but it should regress at least to the league average. Unlike the aforementioned pitchers, Wellemeyer will only strike-out 5 to 6 batttters per 9, but he’ll keep his BB/9 down and post similiar K:BB numbers. Obviously this limits Wellemeyer’s upside, but he’s still right on the cusp of being useful in 12-team mixed leagues.
Randy Wolf (2.95 ERA / 3.71 FIP ) gets no love from fantasy players. If Wolf was 10 years younger, he’d be surrounded by hype. Wolf was predicted to put up 7.50 K/9 and the last time he was in LA he posted an 8.24 K/9. Thus far, Wolf has exceeded the projections by posting a 7.59 K/9 while only walking 2.95 batters per 9. While Wolf’s ERA is artificially low due to a .249 BABIP, he’s still posting a league average strand rate. Considering Randy Wolf is only allowing 16% of hits for line-drives, his lower than expected BABIP isn’t as out of proportion as you’d expect. A lucky owner has undoubtedly picked up Wolf and will enjoy the ride while it lasts. Wolf will eventually get unlucky and as a result post some less than spectacular statistics. If you can get Wolf after this point, he’s going to be a steal: A Solid ERA, 1.35 WHIP, Solid Win totals, and above average strike-out numbers. While Manny Ramirez’s suspension may cost Wolf a win, replacing his lack-luster defense will certainly help a neutral fly-ball pitcher like Wolf.
The Minnesota Twins’ Glen Perkins ( 3.73 ERA / 3.73 FIP ) and Kevin Slowey (5.50 ERA / 4.18 FIP ) are two pitchers I’m trying to acquire, with emphasis on Slowey. Neither Perkins ( 1.75 BB/9) or Slowey (0.42 BB/9) walk batters which is an easy way to post a respectable WHIP without terrific stuff. Neither pitcher is particularly sexy, Perkins is posting an awful 4.83 K/9 compared to his projected number of about 5.5K/9. Slowey’s marginally better, with quite a bit more potential and 7K per 9 isn’t out of reach. Regardless of average-at-best K-Rates, both Slowey and Perkins excel by posting terrific K:BB ratios. Slowey leads the league at 12K/BB, and Perkins is currently at a respectable 2.75 K/BB. Batters are currently hitting .380 on balls in play off of Slowey, which has inflated their overall average to .341.
Neither Slowey or Perkins consistently tops 90mph on the gun, but both can be effective control pitchers. Slowey’s value will never be this low, so if you’re in the market for a SP — I’d bank on Slowey.
Scott Richmond ( 3.29 ERA / 4.47 FIP) just won AL rookie of the month — big ups! I wouldn’t recommend Richmond in any league, and I haven’t the faintest clue as to why he’s succeeding or striking out almost 7 batters per 9. He’s definitely more of a 4.50 ERA pitcher than a low-3.00 ERA pitcher.
Anyways, with the Yankees coming to town on Tuesday the Sky Dome should top 25K in attendance.
By the way, that Justin Verlander trade window is now closed until he posts a couple mediocre starts. As a general rule, your average fantasy competitor will remember about 2-starts and rely on the statistics for the rest of the evaluation. Verlander’s ERA is going to remain above his FIP for a while, so you’ll just have to play the waiting game.
