FTW

Juan Gutierrez Defies Physics

The Arizona Diamondbacks have one hell of a bullpen and realistically any one of five guys could close. Chad Qualls is doing an outstanding job having notched six saves in seven chances while sporting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Qualls continues to sit around a strike-out per inning (12.6K/9,) and currently has a 14:1 K to BB rate. Qualls has a 9!!! GB:FB ratio and is currently sporting a .388 BABIP — basically, Qualls has been a Fantasy Jesus, thus far.

Behind Qualls is Tony Pena (1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP,) Joe Rauch (9.00 ERA, 2.09 WHIP,) Scott Schoeneweis (2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and finally Juan Gutierrez (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.)

Juan Gutierrez has been making his way into a couple columns here and there due to his terrific 12.00 K per 9, and respectable 3.33 K per BB. Gutierrez is holding opposing batters to a .206 Batting Average with solid indicators that he’s for real.  Batters have an above average .330 BABIP, and he’s stranding a league-average 70% of batters. These indicators along with his strike-out rate has resulted in a FIP normalized to ERA of 1.71.

There are some statistical warnings though. Gutierrez is allowing 30% of his hits as line-drives, and 40% as fly balls.  These numbers haven’t come back to bite him in the ass as he’s yet to allow a home-run, but you’d expect him to finish the season somewhere around the 10-12% FB/HR range.  If Gutierrez continues to allow line-drives at a 30% clip, his BABIP is probably actually a little low at .330.  Expect some regression if he continues to get hard.

Coming from the Astros, Gutierrez wasn’t particularly special. Gutierrez ranked as high as the Astros’ 4th overall prospect, but the Astros system is rated the worst in the MLB. Something changed since Gutierrez last saw MLB action though.  I’d actually probably nail it down to this previous off-season, and here’s why:

Gutierrez’s K-Rate was stuck in the 6 batters per 9 range for a few years and levels.  Gutierrez had notched a strike out per inning way back in AA ball in 2006, but since then he’d leveled off.

My major concern is where Gutierrez found this magical added velocity that’s made him an elite strike-out pitcher.  The graphs below are Gutierrez’s Fastball Velocity, Curveball Velocity and Change Up Velocity.

All Graphs Courtesy of Fangraphs.com

Adding to Gutierrez’s effectiveness is the addition of a slider that averages 82mph. Gutierrez relies on it about 16 percent of the time, and there’s a possibility that it could simply be his curveball flattening out.  Both pitches have solid break, and I’m too lazy to look at spin.

Gutierrez looks good, but I have trouble believing that an across the board velocity increase is the result hard work and better mechanics. There’s a chance that Gutierrez was injured in 2007 when his baseline was recorded, but I cannot find any articles detailing an injury. With that said, Gutierrez could log quite a few innings and strike-outs if he stays healthy, which is a HUGE if, considering what I’m implying.

If you’re in the market for high-K relievers with good ratios, Gutierrez might not be a bad choice.  He hasn’t logged a hold or save yet, but if he continues to dominate he should find himself entering games where the Diamondbacks have the lead.

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