FTW

Dan Uggla’s New Approach Starting To Pay Dividends

I’m a little late on this one, but Dan Uggla’s batting average is still sitting squarely at .200, so there’s plenty of buy-low opportunity.  Unfortunately, Uggla’s hit 4 home runs in his last seven games, and he’s seen his batting average and slugging percentage increase from their May 15th lows of .182 and .339, respectively.

Uggla’s always been an atypical middle-infielder with solid power numbers, but a lackluster batting average and on-base percentage.  In 2009, Uggla’s decided to reinvented himself even after posting a career high home-run mark in 2008.  Unfortunately, it hasn’t paid immediate dividents for Uggla or his owners, but the potential for a career-year is definitely there.

Uggla’s continued the progression of his batting eye, increasing his 2008 BB% almost 2 full points to 14.4% in 2009; while cutting back his K% from 32.2% all the way down to 25.2%.

More importantly, Uggla’s maintained his 65% swing percentage at pitches inside of the zone while cutting back his overall swing percentage to 39.5% by decreasing his O-Swing by 3.5%.  Uggla’s increased discipline has resulted in a staggering 7% increase in his overall contact rate; all while maintaining a ground-ball to fly-ball ratio in-line with his career averages.

With a significant increase in almost all of the plate discipline statistics, it’s surprising that Uggla hasn’t posted significant improvements in  the batting average and on-base percentage roto-categories.  A .213 batting average on balls in play after posting a .323 BABIP in 2008 has made sure this isn’t the case. Uggla’s In-Field-Flyball-Percentage is also terribly out of line; sitting almost 10 points higher than his career average. Both of these “luck” based statistics should regress to career norms, and Uggla’s mini-hot-streak should continue.  While Uggla’s HR/FB rate sits 5% lower than last year’s career high of 18%, it’s more likely that Uggla’s 2008 number was an outlier.

In the end, Dan Uggla’s improving upon his flaws rather than strengthening his already above-average power.  You should expect similiar power numbers from Uggla and somewhere around 28-29 HR seems likely.  The breakthrough should come in average and on-base percentage; Uggla’s increased disclipline should result in him hitting somewhere in the .270 region and getting on-base at an equally legit .365 rate.  If Uggla’s value has suffered at all through the course of the 2009 season, be sure to buy now.  Obviously, it would’ve been nice to have gotten on the  Uggla-Train last week, but there’s still value to be had in South Florida.

Thus concludes my two part series on t he Florida Marlins.

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