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About Evan Longoria: Selling High and Throwing Strikes.

May 10, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment 

Evan Longoria is currently destroying Major League pitching and justifying his second round draft selection to the tune of .358 AVG/.408 OBP/.706 SLG. Longoria’s already knocked out eight home-runs and is the league leader in runs batted in with 35.

Longoria’s proving me quite wrong, considering I claimed he was nowhere near worthy of a second round draft selection. I have little doubt in my mind that Evan Longoria will be a perennial all-star selection, but I didn’t think he’d achieve MVP-type numbers quite this soon.

However, I wouldn’t be too quick to peg Evan Longoria as first round value quite yet, and I still tend believe he finishes somewhere in the late-20’s when all is said and done.

The Evan Longoria Question is, Why Are Pitchers Still Throwing Him Strikes?

Carlos Pena, the league leader in home runs, bats behind him is the simple answer but stay with me for a second.

Longoria’s has always had passable plate discipline given his power. In his first full season, Longoria whiffed 27% of the time compared to walking 9% of the time. Pitchers continued to pound the zone at a league average clip against Longoria, largely due to his below league average contact-rate.

Organized by slugging percentage, here’s a quick look at the league leaders thus far (stats are as of Thursday May 7th, when I started this Article):






SWING % Contact %
Name BB% K% BB/K SLG Out Zone Total Out Zone Total Zone%
Albert Pujols 16.1% 9.1% 2.11 0.747 21.9% 73.5% 43.7% 85.2% 91.7% 89.8% 42.3%
Kevin Youkilis 15.2% 20.2% 0.89 0.719 17.1% 62.1% 38.5% 61.5% 88.3% 82.0% 47.5%
Evan Longoria 7.6% 23.9% 0.35 0.706 29.4% 68.4% 49.3% 53.1% 78.2% 70.9% 51.1%
Raul Ibanez 10.1% 17.3% 0.65 0.694 21.1% 59.9% 39.9% 51.2% 89.0% 78.7% 48.4%
Jorge Cantu 9.2% 14.6% 0.69 0.685 31.1% 67.4% 46.2% 67.2% 89.9% 81.0% 41.6%
Carlos Pena 13.9% 33.3% 0.49 0.676 18.2% 71.6% 43.9% 53.3% 74.4% 69.9% 48.1%
Russell Branyan 8.9% 25.6% 0.38 0.659 32.5% 73.8% 50.4% 52.4% 86.4% 74.0% 43.4%
Miguel Cabrera 11.1% 14.6% 0.86 0.656 29.0% 73.1% 50.0% 60.4% 90.2% 81.1% 47.7%
Victor Martinez 12.4% 8.0% 1.78 0.655 19.1% 58.6% 38.4% 78.4% 92.0% 88.6% 49.0%
Torii Hunter 9.5% 13.7% 0.77 0.653 30.2% 73.5% 49.6% 66.7% 91.6% 83.2% 44.9%
Ian Kinsler 7.2% 19.0% 0.41 0.647 26.8% 75.7% 50.0% 67.7% 87.9% 82.2% 47.5%
Chase Utley 17.3% 13.6% 1.55 0.642 17.7% 55.3% 35.3% 58.3% 89.0% 80.9% 47.0%
Manny Ramirez 22.0% 18.5% 1.53 0.641 16.9% 68.8% 40.5% 75.6% 86.3% 83.9% 45.5%
Nick Swisher 17.3% 27.9% 0.75 0.64 17.1% 53.5% 34.2% 66.7% 79.6% 76.2% 47.0%
Jason Bay 23.7% 27.8% 1.12 0.622 13.7% 60.2% 35.0% 44.4% 82.7% 74.6% 45.8%
Adam Jones 8.8% 18.4% 0.53 0.621 27.8% 69.2% 48.6% 51.7% 83.6% 74.5% 50.2%
Brandon Inge 14.7% 24.1% 0.71 0.609 19.6% 57.8% 37.8% 58.1% 80.0% 74.1% 47.6%
Adrian Gonzalez 14.3% 28.4% 0.59 0.608 26.6% 77.2% 50.7% 52.4% 78.9% 71.6% 47.6%
Michael Young 6.6% 19.3% 0.36 0.605 26.4% 70.0% 48.1% 51.8% 85.7% 76.4% 49.8%
Mike Cameron 14.4% 18.9% 0.89 0.6 11.2% 65.0% 39.8% 70.0% 87.1% 84.9% 53.1%
Nick Markakis 13.0% 13.1% 1.14 0.598 21.9% 60.1% 40.0% 75.9% 89.5% 85.6% 47.3%
Adam Lind 12.1% 19.8% 0.7 0.586 25.7% 59.8% 41.1% 69.3% 90.2% 83.0% 45.0%
Jorge Posada 13.5% 24.7% 0.63 0.584 20.2% 61.9% 40.2% 57.1% 90.9% 82.1% 48.1%
Carlos Beltran 15.5% 18.4% 1 0.582 20.9% 69.1% 43.0% 79.1% 91.7% 88.4% 45.9%
Brad Hawpe 14.0% 14.9% 1.09 0.581 20.8% 66.1% 42.4% 57.5% 85.2% 78.1% 47.5%
Ryan Zimmerman 8.3% 19.8% 0.45 0.568 26.4% 60.7% 43.0% 77.8% 84.6% 82.4% 48.4%
Aaron Hill 6.9% 14.9% 0.5 0.567 29.1% 69.4% 49.6% 63.2% 91.1% 83.1% 50.8%
Ryan Ludwick 6.1% 16.3% 0.4 0.565 29.7% 73.1% 51.6% 62.8% 87.5% 80.5% 50.4%
Alberto Callaspo 9.8% 5.4% 2 0.565 24.4% 73.3% 47.1% 84.2% 97.0% 93.4% 46.4%
Mike Lowell 3.5% 12.7% 0.29 0.564 26.1% 58.2% 43.1% 83.3% 93.4% 90.5% 53.1%
Nelson Cruz 8.2% 22.8% 0.39 0.564 19.5% 73.0% 44.6% 45.2% 78.3% 70.6% 46.8%
Joey Votto 13.8% 21.0% 0.76 0.56 22.6% 74.8% 47.0% 67.9% 83.4% 79.5% 46.8%
Andre Ethier 16.1% 15.4% 1.25 0.558 24.5% 67.4% 44.7% 72.3% 93.1% 87.1% 47.1%
Adam Dunn 22.8% 28.4% 1.04 0.557 16.7% 60.5% 36.1% 62.2% 77.7% 73.7% 44.3%
Ryan Braun 13.4% 22.7% 0.68 0.557 27.4% 59.9% 42.6% 63.9% 88.1% 79.9% 46.9%
Justin Upton 10.0% 25.9% 0.43 0.556 28.8% 64.1% 43.8% 45.5% 79.1% 66.4% 42.6%
Justin Morneau 6.0% 17.3% 0.37 0.555 37.7% 72.3% 52.4% 55.6% 93.0% 77.6% 42.5%
Jason Kubel 5.2% 15.2% 0.36 0.554 26.2% 73.7% 49.4% 60.5% 93.0% 84.2% 48.8%
Freddy Sanchez 3.4% 17.0% 0.21 0.554 30.2% 67.7% 51.0% 65.0% 90.5% 83.8% 55.5%
Jermaine Dye 6.3% 29.2% 0.23 0.551 25.3% 67.6% 45.5% 60.0% 86.2% 78.6% 47.9%
Mark Reynolds 9.3% 33.0% 0.31 0.546 19.8% 66.0% 42.8% 37.5% 72.7% 64.5% 49.8%
Hank Blalock 3.0% 15.3% 0.2 0.541 28.9% 70.0% 49.7% 56.3% 87.4% 78.4% 50.6%
Orlando Hudson 12.7% 10.3% 1.42 0.538 15.9% 66.4% 40.4% 55.3% 91.3% 84.0% 48.6%
Bengie Molina 0.0% 12.6% 0 0.537 53.6% 81.2% 65.7% 67.5% 90.9% 80.2% 44.0%
Jay Bruce 10.9% 22.2% 0.55 0.533 25.9% 75.3% 49.1% 51.9% 86.6% 76.9% 47.0%
Johnny Damon 11.5% 14.0% 0.93 0.53 21.1% 64.2% 42.2% 77.3% 90.7% 87.3% 49.0%
Shane Victorino 6.9% 9.3% 0.8 0.528 29.9% 63.0% 46.3% 72.7% 93.9% 87.0% 49.6%
Curtis Granderson 9.2% 21.3% 0.48 0.528 20.9% 59.2% 40.2% 60.4% 86.2% 79.6% 50.3%
Kosuke Fukudome 19.2% 18.8% 1.27 0.525 10.7% 54.2% 31.1% 52.2% 90.3% 83.3% 46.9%
Elijah Dukes 11.6% 27.4% 0.48 0.524 23.7% 76.0% 46.0% 42.9% 82.1% 70.5% 42.7%
Alfonso Soriano 9.0% 27.9% 0.35 0.523 35.4% 72.0% 51.5% 44.7% 89.7% 72.4% 44.1%
Chris Duncan 14.6% 20.5% 0.83 0.523 18.8% 66.1% 40.2% 28.2% 93.8% 77.0% 45.2%
Robinson Cano 5.8% 9.6% 0.64 0.518 30.6% 70.1% 49.8% 82.5% 96.3% 92.0% 48.5%
Todd Helton 10.1% 15.7% 0.71 0.517 22.3% 70.4% 45.7% 81.3% 89.5% 87.4% 48.6%
Carlos Quentin 9.5% 12.6% 0.83 0.516 27.0% 81.9% 52.8% 66.7% 90.3% 83.9% 47.0%
Rod Barajas 5.6% 11.9% 0.5 0.512 26.3% 74.7% 51.9% 67.5% 92.1% 86.2% 52.8%
Carlos Lee 7.3% 8.8% 0.89 0.51 23.8% 74.0% 49.3% 68.2% 95.1% 88.7% 50.9%
Ryan Howard 11.6% 29.3% 0.45 0.505 31.6% 81.7% 52.1% 44.2% 81.2% 67.9% 40.9%
Mike Jacobs 9.9% 29.7% 0.37 0.505 26.5% 65.9% 44.2% 54.2% 85.0% 74.9% 44.9%

I understand that this is a lot to digest, but it gives a much clearer picture of Longoria as a hitter. I’ve bolded the statistics that fall noticeably below the league average in any given category (B/KK, Swing Percentage Outside the Zone, Swing Percentages Inside the Zone, Contact Outside the Zone, Contact Inside the Zone, and Zone Percentage [or percent of pitches inside the zone.])

Onto the Question: Why’s Longoria Getting So Many Pitches to Hit?

Of the elite hitters on this list, you’ve got to go all the way down to Adam Jones and Mike Cameron to find the other hot-hitting players that are seeing more pitches inside, rather than outside, of the zone. This obviously has quite a bit to do with line-up protection and for the most part it’s still pick your poison (Jones or Markakis, Braun or Cameron). If these players continue their hot hitting ways, you’d expect them to see less pitches inside the zone even if they’re protected by some of the most elite hitters in the game.

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics do not predict a dominant hitter. Longoria’s stats actually resemble a Russell Branyan-type hitter at this point. Their stats are eerily similar:

Name BB% K% BB/K SLG Out Zone Total Out Zone Total Zone%
Russell Branyan 8.9% 25.6% 0.38 0.659 32.5% 73.8% 50.4% 52.4% 86.4% 74.0% 43.4%
Evan Longoria 7.6% 23.9% 0.35 0.706 29.4% 68.4% 49.3% 53.1% 78.2% 70.9% 51.1%

Branyan chases a few more pitches, but he also makes more contact. The only real difference here is that Longoria’s seeing 7% more pitches inside the strike-zone. Comparing Russell Branyan and Evan Longoria is terrifying, so I’ll never do it again, but how does Longoria react when pitchers start throwing him more borderline strikes?

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics may be skewed because he’s seeing the ball so well, and making damn-hard contact so often — but I’m still concerned.

Other players like Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds fall into the trap of walking too little, swinging too much, and making poor contact on those swings. It’s obviously been working for them just as well as it has been for Longoria, but they’re all young players who are still getting a large percentage of pitches inside the zone.

If Longoria keeps up his sweet swinging ways, pitchers are going to have to start respecting him or challenging him. Carlos Pena continues to be among the league leaders in Home Runs, but at some point pitchers are going to have to risk walking Longoria in order to test his plate discipline. It’s a tricky situation as the Rays’ line-up has been terrific thus far and Upton still hasn’t even come close to hitting his stride.

Opposing pitchers will eventually catch onto Longoria’s lack of plate discipline, and it’ll be up to Longoria to adapt. I’m not predicting the end of the Longoria-Era by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan Howard has obviously shown that a player can still be successful only getting 40% of their pitches inside of the zone.

Keep in mind, we’re really only working off 30 games worth of 2009 statistics so there’s going to be a small sample size warning. With Longoria, it’s quite clear why almost everything is prefaced with a small sample size caveat — Check out the pitchers that he’s faced thus far:

vs. Baltimore Orioles
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Danys Báez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Bass 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 2 2.5
Adam Eaton 6 3 1 0 1 2 0 2 1 0 0 0.5 0.5 1.167 1.667
Jeremy Guthrie 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.667 0.667 1 1.667
Mark Hendrickson 3 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 1.333 1.667
Jim Johnson 1 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 5
Bob McCrory 1 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Koji Uehara 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.667 1
Jamie Walker 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
vs. Boston Red Sox
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Josh Beckett 6 1 1 0 0 3 0 1 0 0 0 0.167 0.167 0.333 0.5
Manny Delcarmen 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.667 0.5 1.167
Hunter Jones 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 4 5
Jon Lester 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0.333 0.333 0.667 1
Javier López 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Justin Masterson 4 2 0 0 1 6 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1.25 1.75
Daisuke Matsuzaka 3 3 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2.333 3.333
Hideki Okajima 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brad Penny 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.333 0 0.333
Ramón Ramírez 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Takashi Saito 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 2 2.5
Tim Wakefield 3 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0.667 0.667 1 1.667
vs. Chicago White Sox
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Mark Buehrle 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.667 0.667 0.667 1.333
D.J. Carrasco 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bartolo Colón 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.667 1
Octavio Dotel 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Gavin Floyd 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Clayton Richard 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
vs. Minnesota Twins
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Luis Ayala 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Scott Baker 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.667 0.667 1 1.667
Nick Blackburn 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.5
R.A. Dickey 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Francisco Liriano 3 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 0.667 1
José Mijares 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
vs. New York Yankees
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Jonathan Albaladejo 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Brian Bruney 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
A.J. Burnett 6 2 1 0 0 1 0 2 1 0 0 0.333 0.333 0.5 0.833
Andy Pettitte 3 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 0 1 0.333 0.333 1.333 1.667
Edwar Ramírez 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 0.5 1
Mariano Rivera 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 2 2.5
José Veras 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Chien-Ming Wang 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
vs. Oakland Athletics
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
Dallas Braden 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.667 0.5 1.167
Trevor Cahill 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 1 1.5
Dana Eveland 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0.333 0 0.333
Dan Giese 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0 0.5
Russ Springer 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Michael Wuertz 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
vs. Seattle Mariners
AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS GIDP AVG OBP SLG OPS
David Aardsma 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miguel Batista 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
Roy Corcoran 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2
Félix Hernández 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Chris Jakubauskas 2 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.667 1.5 2.167
Mark Lowe 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Jarrod Washburn 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.667 1 1.667

This isn’t exactly murderers row, but you’ve got to give credit to Longoria for killing the pitchers that he should be killing. He hasn’t had much luck against solid pitchers, and has thus far managed to run into the tougher pitchers are opportune times. Catching the Yankees and the Red Sox early in the season when their pitching is a mess has helped Longoria and all of the Rays. A large portion of Longoria’s counting stats have come off none other than the Baltimore Orioles — it’ll be fun to watch him take on some of the stronger rotations.

To me, Longoria’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate. If you can get first round talent for him, I’m pulling the trigger pronto.

BallHype: hype it up!

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