FTW

Welcome Back Phil, Don’t Call Me Philip, Hughes.

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes.

The Phil Hughes Story:

• First Team High School All-American.
• Drafted 23rd overall by the Yankees in the First Year Players Draft.
• Baseball America ranked him the number four overall prospect in 2007.
• MLB Line: 106.2 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 81 K

Hughes’ Stuff

• 91-95 mph 4-seamer
• 87-90 mph 2-seamer
• low-70s mph Curve Ball
• low-80s mph change-up
• mid-80s Cut-Fastball / Slider

Hughes In The Minors: 2007 to 2009

Hughes garnered immense hype prior to his first big-league start as is generally the case with Yankees’ prospects.  Unfortunately, Hughes has yet to get a fair shake and has been quite mediocre in limited MLB action because the Yankees continually stock-pile free-agent pitching.  Considering Hughes’ mound-presence and major-league readiness, it’s a surprise the Yankees have relegated Hughes to spot-start duty and withering away in the minors.

Hughes has dominated minor-league hitters across all levels and continues to impress in 2009. In 19.1 innings for AAA-Scranton, Hughes is the proud owner of a 1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19K, and has won each of the three games he’s started.  Quite simply, Phil Hughes is too damn good for AAA.

2008 was a mess for Hughes who suffered a strained oblique muscle to go along with a cracked rib-cage and a diagnosis of near-sightedness. All and all, 2008 was a year that you can probably ignore when looking at Hughes’ minor-league track-record.

2009 Fantasy Impact

Chien-Ming Wang and the case of the disappearing velocity has lead to a 2009 ERA of 34.50 and a DL-stint. With Wang on the DL, it appears as though Hughes will get every opportunity to impress making his first start on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers.

1. If you’re a Yankees fan you should be thanking your lucky stars that he’s starting in Comerica rather than New Yankee Stadium.  While Hughes is calm, cool and collected — he’s still a 22-year old.  Pitching in Detroit should provide some distance for Hughes and a successful first start could be the beginning of a long career in pin-stripes for the perennial prospect.
2. The Yankees have a nice little schedule coming up, and if Hughes is fully inserted into the rotation he’ll pitch to Detroit, Anaheim, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota. If the rotation stays in line, and starts aren’t skipped; Hughes will luck-out and miss both Tampa Bay and Boston.

The stars seem to line up perfectly for Phil Hughes and facing the Angels at Yankee Stadium will be Hughes’ toughest task, but other than that, he’ll have a very good shot at success over the next month.

With everything lined up and Hughes throwing his dirty curveball consistently for strikes; the only question remaining is whether or not Hughes can convert his potential into cold-hard-statistical data.

Unlike previous years, Hughes should be able to carry-over his potent K-9 rate.  Expecting Hughes to continue striking out 1 major-league batter per inning may be asking a little too much, but he should be able to maintain a rate somewhere in the ballpark of 7.50 – 8.00 K/9 (over the next month.)

Hughes is worth rostering in all but the shallowest of leagues, even if you’re just taking a wait-and-see approach.  I really like the way that the next month stacks up for Hughes, and he seems to be in rhythm once again.

Hughes should’ve learned from experiences and after the kid gets a few wins under his belt — The Yankees will have to pry him from the rotation with a crowbar.  If  Hughes falters early, Ian Kennedy, another interesting Yankees’ Prospect that was equally as unimpressive in his 2008 big-league stint, could get the call.  Kennedy has bested Hughes with 21 strike-outs in 18 innings, and has also dominated AAA hitting, to the tune of a 2.00 ERA.

Where Hughes separates himself from Kennedy and almost every other imaginable prospect, is his control.  Hughes has only walked 3 batters, and currently owns a 6.33 K:BB ratio.

The only concern, especially the way Yankee Stadium is playing, is Hughes’ two home-runs allowed.  Kennedy excels at keeping the ball down (at least in theory,) and may well be a better fit for Yankee Stadium until the ball stops leaving the park.

My gut is telling me that Bill James’ predictions may not be that ludicrous, and the statistics seem to back it up.  Hughes has dominated AAA only to fail at the big league level before, so by no means is this a sure thing.  If you’re a risk-taker though, Phil Hughes could pay huge dividends.

Bill James Projection Model: 125 IP, 9 W, 3.38 ERA, 121 K, 1.26 WHIP, 8.71 K/9, and a 2.63 K:BB

By The Way: I do consider Standard ESPN, 10 Team Leagues, to be very shallow leagues.  It actually upsets me playing in these leagues because so few players are drafted, and it really comes down to who’s team stays healthy. Winning a league like this gives you zero bragging rights, unless you are the kind of person that likes bragging about winning money on a slot-machine.

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