FTW

The Toronto Blue Jays, For The Wins?

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me.

1. Marco Scutaro – SS – 69 AB -  .275 AVG – 4 HR – 18 R – 11 RBI – 1 SB

   • 1.45 BB:K Ratio – Scutaro’s posted a career best, and is getting on base at a ridiculous clip
   • .414 OBP - could you ask for anything more in an under-priced lead-off hitter?
   • Scutaro’s also barely swinging and when he does swing, he’s making ridiculously high contact
   • Conclusion - Scutaro’s still terribly undervalued, but there’s no way he keeps up his torrid pace.  Expect his .920 OPS to come down to the .790 OPS range.

2. Aaron Hill – 2B -  83 AB - .373 AVG – 5 HR – 13 R – 18 RBI – 1 SB

   • Healthy, Finally Healthy. This is the most important point with Hill.
   • 1.024 OPS and .253 ISO – This will fall in line as other statistics regress…
   • .388 BABIP - …and this’ll be the reason.  Hill should be sitting around .310ish.
   • 17.9 HR/FB – This’ll also help.  Hill hasn’t topped 9% HR/FB in his career, and even an optimistic projection will put him somewhere around 11 or 12 %
   • Conclusion – Aaron’s going to be an above average second basemen this year, with the possibility of competing with someone like Dan Uggla.  He won’t match Uggla’s power numbers, but he wont kill your Batting Average. The Run and RBI totals also look good for Hill this year.

3. Alex Rios – RF – 77 AB -  .247 AVG – 1 HR – 10 R – 12 RBI – 2 SB

   • .295 BABIP - Rios generally sports a higher than normal BABIP, and it should eventually come up to the .320-range. Last year Rios posted a .335 BABIP.
   • 4.8 HR / FB - The Polar Opposite of Aaron Hill.  They both should end up somewhere around the league average of 11 or 12 percent.
   • 23.4 In Field Fly Ball Percent – Rios shouldn’t be anywhere near this high, and this isn’t one of the lucky/unlucky indicators.  Rios was just off to start the year, and he’s starting to turn it around.
   • Conclusion - Still a tremendous talent, but his draft value assumed he’d develop some power to go with his stolen base potential.  I’d expect an improvement in Rios’ counting stats, which should make up for a slight decline in SB numbers.  Once the Jays  stop hitting, Rios may start running a lot more. A 20-20 season is a very real possibility, but 30-30 is asking a bit too much. I’m buying Rios at 90-95 cents on the dollar.

4. Vernon Wells – CF – 75 AB – .280 AVG – 3 HR – 15 R – 9 RBI – 3 SB

   • .300 AVG – Wells hasn’t reached these numbers for a couple years
   • .269 BABIP – …and he’s not just getting ass-faced lucky either
   • 42.3% FB and .97 GB/FB Ratio - Wells was nowhere near these numbers last year and this is a return to the Vernon Wells Hey-Day.
   • Conclusion – Everything looks great for Vernon, and I’m definitely buying it.  His predictor stats are starting to fall in line with the ones he posted during his career years.  The only concern with Vernon is his injury history.

5. Adam Lind – DH – 72 AB – .347 AVG – 3 HR – 13 R – 15 RBI – 0 SB

   • .423 BABIP – Al Pacino says, “H00 – Haah!”   Adam Lind is primed for some regression
   • 24% LD Rate — Lind doesn’t possess your typical uppercut swing, and is more of a doubles machine.  He’s increased his line-drive rate 3 percent all of which has come from his GB rate.
   • 18.8 HR / FB - Lind should eventually regress to league average, or somewhere around 12%
   • 10% BB Rate – This is a huge improvement for Lind, and his plate discipline in generally is up.
   • 51 % First Pitch Strike Percentage - This is down 13 percent from previous years.
   • Conclusion – There’s some good, some bad, and some ugly with Adam Lind.  You’ve got to expect regression, but Lind’s plate approach is stellar.  Lind’s not a top-50 guy over the course of the season, but he could easily crack the top-80 or top-100.  Lind could easily pop his head into Ryan Ludwick land, even after all of the regressions.  Just be sure to keep an eye on his plate approach — if he starts pressing, it’ll show up there first.

6. Scott Rolen – 3B – 63 AB- .317 AVG – 2 HR – 10 R – 7 RBI – 0 SB

   • .317 BA - After two years of hitting in the .260- range, Rolen’s found himself a time-machine.  The big thing with Rolen is definitely his health, and I really can’t see him staying healthy all year.
   • 9.5 K Rate – This blows my mind, and really confirms the fact that Rolen is probably as healthy as he’s going to get. Rolen gradually reduced his K rate during his time with the Cardinals, and this is the logical in the progression of an aging power hitter. I’d prefer to see an older slugger understand the aging process, rather than swinging for the fences even after his power’s been robbed.
   • Conclusion - In Deep Leagues, ride Rolen while he’s hot.  He’ll end up injured soon enough, as the Rogers Centre surface is anything but friendly to veterans. I wouldn’t be expecting a return to greatness, as Rolen’s still not making terrific contact, but he’ll be serviceable.

7. Lyle Overbay – 1B – 42 AB - .310 AVG – 3 HR – 7 R – 10 RBI – 0 SB

   • 42 AB – At this point, Overbay is splitting time with Kevin Millar.  Cito maintains that it’s not a platoon, but it’s really starting to look that way.
   • 2.17 BB:K Rate – Overbay is taking a lot of walks  (23.6% BB Rate) and it’ll pay off assuming that he’s got hitters batting behind him. Overbay’s plate discipline has improved across the board.  If Overbay ever finds his way to the top of the line-up, he could prove to be quite useful in deeper leagues.
   • 52.8% GB Rate – Unfortunately, as we all know, Overbay doesn’t bring the kind of power you’d hope for in a Corner Infielder.  While this sample-size is tiny, Overbay’s hitting far too many ground-balls (19 in total, thus far.)
   • Conclusion – In deeper leagues monitor Overbay’s spot in the line-up as he could provide half-decent production.

8. Travis Snider - LF – 42 AB – .310 AVG – 3 HR – 8 R – 10 RBI – 1 SB

   • 42AB - Same deal as Overbay, except Snider’s splitting time with Jose Bautista in left-field.  Cito’s going to have to hit Snider against lefties sooner or later, or the youngster will lose his confidence.  Wearing kids gloves while handling youngsters is always a wise idea though.
   • .357 BABIP – It’s not like we should expect regression; Snider’s posted high BABIP at every level.  I just wanted to make a note of that in case some foo’ told you he was getting lucky. This number’s actually perfectly in line with Bill James’ projection model for Travis Snider.
   • 5 BB - Snider’s already matched his walk total from 2008, in 5/8ths of the plate appearances.  Snider’s 10% BB rate is nice, but Snider still appears to be pressing from time to time.
   • Conclusion - Snider has some interesting numbers, but I’m going to write most of them off as random fluctuations.  I wouldn’t expect Snider to continue hitting 52% Fly-Balls compared to merely 10% line-drives.

9. Rod Barajas - C – 52 AB – .250 AVG – 2 HR – 5 R – 9 RBI – 0 SB

   • 0.30 GB/FB – Barajas is one of the few Jays that has yet to click.  Barajas is getting under the ball a lot, but I wouldn’t worry:  he’ll eventually finish close enough to his career average of .60 GB/FB.
   • 67.9 Fastball Percent - It really looks like pitchers are challenging Barajas this year, and he hasn’t quite caught up to the fastball.  He’ll adapt with time, so long as the Jays don’t trot him out there *too* often.
   • Conclusion - Barajas has been bating pretty late in the order, but the order has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  In two catcher leagues, Barajas is a viable option but otherwise I’d probably avoid him in most other leagues.  Unless of course you can stomach his .250 batting average.

…and that is that, maybe I’ll get around to doing the Jays Pitchers tomorrow but with so many of them currently injured, I’m not sure it’ll be worth it.

As always, thanks to fangraphs.com for their lovely website.

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