FTW, Hype Machine

The Tommy Hanson Article

The Tommy Hanson Article has been put off until the time was right — Guess what? The time is right. Every day for the last month I thought about writing this article but figured you were getting your fair share of hype from the major media outlets.

Time to dig our teeth into it:

Tommy Hanson: Man? Myth? MACHINE?

1. Jo-Jo Reyes isn’t very good at baseball: In 5.2 IP against the Pirates, Reyes allowed 5 earned runs – not good.  He walked 3, struck out 4, allowed 7 hits, and gave up one home-run – not good.

2. The Atlanta Braves are now 6-8. This isn’t good for a team that has yearly post-season ambitions, and you know things are getting bad when you start losing to the Nationals.  At some point in the very near future the Braves are going to have to honker down and decide that the games in April and May matter.  Florida has only lost 3 games, and it’d make sense to assume that the division title passes through Philly or New York, maybe even both. The Braves are in trouble.

3. Tommy Hanson’s *almost* on the right Schedule. The Braves are looking for a Sunday starter against the Cincinnati Reds and Micah Owings. It appears as though Jurrjens, Vazquez and Lowe will fill in the next three games prior to this MAGICAL Sunday start.  Hanson last pitched on Sunday April 19th — This means MONITOR HANSON’s SCHEDULE.  Watch the Gwinnett Braves and see when they trot Hanson out there.  You can follow Hanson here, and the Braves here.

The Braves have games straight through to Monday:  If Hanson gets skipped — odds are somethings up.  If Hanson goes Friday, he probably won’t be called up for Sunday.

Personally, I think the Braves roll the dice with Jo-Jo at least once more, maybe twice more.  If they get swept by the Nationals tonight though; Jody Foster and I will be watching TBS and the Atlanta Braves from our PANIC ROOM whilst making sweet sweet love.   By the way, I think Panic Room is one of my least favourite movies of all time.  It’s gotta be in the bottom 10.

So What Exactly Is The Deal With Tommy Hanson

I saved this for last, because almost anyone with a fantasy radar knows who Tommy Hanson is.  I’ll go over why you’ll want to own him quickly.

1. Hanson Dominated the Arizona Fall League, becoming the first pitcher to win it’s MVP.  49 strike-outs in 28 2/3rds innings will do that.  Throw in an ERA of .62 and a K:BB of 7 (Hanson only walked 7 Batters) and we’re good to go.  This is where the hype-machine blew the fuck up.
2. In 2008, Hanson had already posted ridiculous numbers in High-A (40IP, 0.90 ERA, 49K, 11BB, 0.65WHIP) before he was moved up to AA and continued his success (98IP, 10.5K per 9, 3.03 ERA, 1.13 WHIP)
3. This year, Hanson’s been just ridiculous for Triple-A Gwinnett: 14.1K per 9, 3.1BB per 9, and a 2.45 ERA in about 15 IP.
4. Hanson dominated for stretches this spring: 4.08 ERA, 17 IP, 18K, 21 H, 6BB — Still a very respectable line, and the K:BB ratio of 3 is a solid indicator.

Hanson’s Stuff

First off, Hanson is a man-child: 6’6″ and 210lbs.

Hanson’s fastball: We’re talking low-to-mid-90′s here, with the possibility of really hiking it up. I don’t have any verifiable data to go on, but it appears as though Hanson gets above-average movement on the pitch. Fastball’s his best pitch, and he should have no problem challenging big-league hitters with it.  Hanson’s Off-Speed Stuff: Good Curveball with solid slurve movement, a nice pitch to have.  I’m somewhat stuck on defining it, but it’s been called anything from a hammer-curve to a slurve — from what I can tell via ghetto-ized video, it’s a curve with good movement on both planes.  Hanson’s Change: This is what’s drawing the rants and raves — not because it’s his best pitch, but because if he ever fully develops it, he’ll be a stud.  As it sits now, it’s an average pitch that he’s improved upon dramatically since he picked it up.

Why I’m Sorta-Kinda-Worried

Hanson’s name keeps popping up, and for good reason.  He’s 22, and ranked as Baseball America’s fourth best prospect.  He’s the second best pitcher, ranked only behind Mr. David Price — there’s obviously reason to be excited.

However, Hanson’s been at it full-bore for a long time now.  In 2008, he pitched 138 innings in A+/AA, 29 innings in the Arizona Fall League, and almost 18 in Spring Training.

I’m obviously not an expert in what kind of schedule is needed to promote an injury free career, but common sense suggest that it would be nice to have some rest in there — somewhere.

Based on Hanson’s Innings Pitched totals from his first three games in AAA, it’s clear the Braves are *attempting* to save his arm.  Hanson’s averaging just under 5 innings pitched in 3 very effective starts.

I also tend to think that the Tommy Hanson hype-machine has become a monster.  Hanson’s good, real good, but at this point I have trouble speculating that picking him up will drastically alter your fantasy squad.  He’s got a great K:9 Ratio, and an even better K:BB ratio, but he has been known to give up a lot of fly-balls.

If you’re expecting the next Fantasy-Jesus, I’d re-evaluate the situation.  If you’re expecting a solid pitcher, that’ll post great K per 9 numbers, then you’re on the right track. While I’m not saying it’s impossible, there’s nothing to say that Hanson will post an ERA below 4.00, and a WHIP better than 1.25.

This are incredibly serviceable numbers, especially when you add in Hanson’s K potential — but it’s not like Hanson’s a must-own over the course of the season.

One Final Caveat: Hanson will probably best these numbers to start out his career, and this is where he’ll post the dirty-dirty-type numbers.  You want to own Hanson to start, and deal him after a month or two.  I can see the end of August getting really ugly for Hanson, considering his year-long pitching spree.

…and that’s that.

Unfortunately, I’ll be missing YET ANOTHER Blue  Jays Game tonight, in order to help my better-half move more shit.

God Save Us All.

If you were interested in both of my tangents, both God and Bad Movies can be combined into one by checking out the Nick Cage Movie, KNOWING.  What an awful movie.  The last 10 minutes may have been the worst 10 minutes ever put on film.