FTW

Quick Hitter: Nyjer Morgan

In organizations with top-tier minor league depth, useful players tend to fall off my radar: Nyjer Morgan is one of those players. With Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata and Steven Pearce in the pipe-line, a player like Morgan just isn’t quite as sexy as he should be considering his skill-set.

Morgan’s going to be one of the hot waiver-wire claims tomorrow after a terrific game against the Reds today: 3 H, 2 R, 1RBI, 1BB, 2SB

On the year, Morgan’s batting .391 with 5 Runs, 5 RBI, and 3 SB. The kicker is, he’s leading off and batting ahead of Freddy Sanchez, Nate McClouth, Ryan Doumit and the brothers’ LaRoche.

I interrupt this article to kill BJ RYAN, who just came into a game leading 5-1 and promptly allowed the Indians to score 3 runs.  Mark DeRosa is standing on second base, and the winning run is at bat.  Ryan’s 9th inning performance: Garko Walked, Shoppach Grounded into a double play, Francisco singled and stole second base, Cabrera walked, Sizemore Walked, DeRosa doubled — Francisco, Cabrera, and Sizemore Scored.  Frasor relieved Ryan and promptly struck out Victor Martinez with the dirty dirty.  Downs had pitched earlier, and wasn’t available

Back to Morgan.

Batting lead-off, realistically turns Nyjer Morgan into a fantasy performer.  If Morgan were batting 7th or 8th, he’d have nominal value and probably contribute to your AVG and SB.

As a leadoff hitter, Morgan’s projected .300 average and speed, should allow him to score enough RUNs to be a nice addition to any fantasy roster.

Breaking Down Morgan:

Morgan’s hit .300 or better at every minor league level. His average stood up, as he posted .299 (2007) and .294 (2008) with the big club. While Morgan’s BABIP was a bit high, expecting about .280-.290 over the course of a year is a very solid bet.

Morgan’s plate discipline isn’t stellar, and we’re looking at .30-.40 BB per K which tends to be problematic for a lead-off hitter. If Morgan can continue to get on base somewhere in the .345 (2008) to .359 (2007), he’ll be a solid bet to score at least 80 to 85 runs.

If you expect 0 HR from Morgan, then maybe you’ll be pleasantly surprised if he knocks 3 HR out of the yard.  I really don’t think it’s necessary to examine Morgan’s power potential.

Morgan is QUICK-FAST, and this is where his value comes from. Morgan stole 44 bases in 322 AB in 2008 for the Pirates-AAA club.  Morgan’s also efficient, which should give him some lee-way with the big club even after being gunned down 36% of the time with the Pirates last year.

The Projection Models read like this:

Bill James: 26 SB in 260 AB

CHONE: 32SB in 442AB

Marcel: 11SB in 269AB

ZiPS: 36SB in 390AB

Needless to say, if Morgan can hold onto a job all year, he’ll accumulate more than 442 AB.  Realistically Morgan is the only true lead-off hitter on the Pirates, as Nate McLouth’s new-found power should drop him in the line-up.

Morgan’s a solid add in almost all fantasy leagues, so long as he’s batting lead-off.  Even if Morgan’s dropped in the line-up, he’ll still contribute very solid numbers to the SB-category. Unlike Michael Bourn or Carlos Gomez, Nyjer Morgan won’t negatively effect your batting average either.

There really isn’t a question with Morgan so much as there is a question with Andrew McCutchen. McCutchen’s shown that he can perform in the Minors, but can’t seem to crack the Pirates line-up. If McCutchen ever gets the call, it may cut into Morgan’s AB.  I wouldn’t worry about that until McCutchen gets the call. (McCutchen will probably get the call in early-to-mid June.)

Until then, Morgan’s left battling Hinske and Monroe, who are both better suited coming off the bench.

…by the way, Nyjer Morgan actually played HOCKEY! for the Regina Pats in the CHL, believe it or not.

Photo Courtesy Of David Watson, Flickr.

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