FTW

Mike Cameron: Talk About A Small Sample Size.

Mike Cameron’s always been one of the more buzz-worthy fantasy players, at least in deep leagues.  It’s almost impossible to decide whether or not Broken-Headed Mike Cameron (thanks Beltran!), is under-valued or over-valued. The fleet-footed Cameron seems to be a lock for 20 Home Runs and 20 Stolen Bases at this late juncture of his career: In a mere 120 games last year, Cameron decided he’d drop 25 HR and 17 SB on the fantasy community. His numbers could have been eye-popping, if not for a suspension and his knack for batting sub-.250.

Cameron was suspended twenty-five games after his second positive banned-stimulant test.  Stimulants used to be all the rage in the big-leagues, at least until steroids came along. Cameron’s made it very clear that he didn’t test positive for steroids, and blames it on a tainted nutrient supplement (as all athletes tend to do.)

Then there’s that average, that mind-numbingly low average.  Mike Cameron has batted above .270 just once in his career, and it was the same year that Carlos Beltran broke Cameron’s face in late-August.  I have no doubt in my mind that Cameron would have found a way to get that average below .270 had he played the final month of the season. He was sporting a .341 BABIP, afterall.

Anyways, this article is about Mike Cameron, Small Sample Sizes, and Old Dogs Learning New Tricks. Cameron’s seen 325 Pitches this year, of which 144 were balls and 181 were strikes — talk about a small sample size.  Cameron’s seen these pitches over the course of 19 games, and 82 plate appearances.

The question is, can we use these 325 pitches to our advantage when evaluating Mike Cameron, or are we better off ignoring these events and focusing on the previous 10 years of his career?

It depends on whether or not you can teach an old dog new tricks.  Is there any reason to believe that Cameron would become more disciplined at the plate over the course of the off-season?  Players almost never increase their discipline substantially after years of swingin’ away. The majority of readers will view Mike Cameron’s improvements and corresponding .309 average as nothing more than Small-Sample-Size-Magic — Everyone Gets Lucky, Every Dog Has It’s Day.

However, take a look at Cameron’s statistics and you’ll notice a new approach.  I’m not saying Cameron’s going to continue his .309-hittin ways, but Cameron could be primed for another .270+ batting average season.  At .270, Cameron’s stolen bases and home runs are a lot easier to stomach than at .242.

1. Mike Cameron’s increased his walk-rate to 16% having taken 13 walks thus far in 2009.
2. Cameron’s also struck out 13 times, for a K:BB of 1.00 and a K% of 19.1%.  This is a vast improvement for Cameron, whose career average sits at a 27.7% strike-out rate
3. Cameron’s only swinging at 12% of pitches outside of the zone which is reminiscent of his years with the New York Mets, and a sizable decrease from his previous years in Milwaukee (2007-20%, 2008-18%).
4. Of the pitches that Cameron’s swung at outside of the zone, he’s now making contact with 65% of them. Cameron’s unlikely to sustain such a rate, but it’s still an increase from his career 43%.
5. Cameron’s overall contact percentage is up 12% from his career average, which mainly consists of an 11% increase in contact for pitches in the zone. For the first time in Cameron’s career, his 91.6% Zone Contact is above the league average of 88%
6. Cameron’s BABIP of .320, while high, isn’t out of line with his career line of .307.  Cameron recently hit .341 on balls in play with the Mets in 2005, and .325 in 2006 with the Padres.
7. Cameron’s hitting more line-drives (26%) and fly-balls (50%) and less ground balls (23.2%)

All of this has happened in 82 Plate Appearances, 68 At-Bats, and 325 Pitches. Yes, it’s a small sample size and Cameron will probably regress to his true-skill level but all of the indicators for an old-dog learning new tricks are there.  Cameron’s not going to blow anyone’s mind and hit .300, but hitting .270? .275? — Not that much of a stretch.

Cameron’s 25 HR and 15-20 SB become infinitely more valuable if he doesn’t kill your batting average, and what I’ve seen so far may indicate that Cameron’s learned a couple new tricks.  I don’t want to over-value one month of the season, but if you can convince an owner that Mike Cameron’s destined to hit .240 again — Maybe it’s worth pulling the trigger to acquire him.

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