I’m probably not the only one that’s compared Justin Verlander to a beautiful woman, a woman that’s clearly out of your league. A woman that you bring home for a chandelier rockin’ night of passion only to wake up the next morning and realize that your wallet’s gone, you’re handcuffed to the bed, and your radio’s stuck on the Colin Cowherd show…NOOOOO! TURN IT OFFFFF!
Justin Verlander does one thing extremely well, he throws really fucking hard. After Verlander No-Hit the Brewers in 2007, Dave Bush had this to say,
I don’t know how else to describe it. A guy throwing 100 mph in the ninth inning with a no-hitter, I’ve never seen that before.
Verlander tantalized us with a stellar 2007 season in which he won 18 games, posted an ERA of 3.66 and struck out 183 batters. Fantasy experts salivated at his potential going into 2008, but those who drafted him were less than pleased with his 17-loss season.
Heading into 2009, if someone told they knew what Verlander was going to bring to the table, they were lying to your face and hopefully you stabbed them.
Until last night, it looked quite clear that Verlander was going to come fairly close to replicating his 2008 numbers, rather than his 2007 season. Verlander went into the Yankees game with an ERA of 9.00 and a WHIP of 1.72 — Ouch. His strike-out numbers were there (25K/21IP) but Verlander was proned to allowing the long-ball having given up 3 HR in 4 Games.
Then it happened: 7 IP, 7 H, 0 BB, 9K, 0ER against the New York Yankees, none the less.
There’s a lot to take in here, especially for fantasy purposes and I’ll try and keep everything as straight forward as possible. Firstly, Verlander’s domination of the Yankees really wasn’t all that surprising.
Verlander’s Bad Luck
A couple of errors in the Texas game, and another in the Seattle game has resulted in 3 unearned runs thus far for Verlander. Brandon Inge and Adam Everett are by no means poor defenders, but Everett’s yet to click and is sitting around a UZR/150 of (-27.2). At the very least, you’d have to imagine Everett’s infield defense would get to about average, even after posting his worst range rating in years (10 – 11 RngR -> 5 RngR.)
Even after last night’s masterpiece, Verlander is still only stranding 50% of batters which is well below the league average of 71%. Verlander should be sitting somewhere in the low-to-mid-70′s when all is said and done.
Verlander’s BABIP of .408 is what stands out at this early juncture of the season. Expecting regression at some point seems logical, even if it only regresses to Verlander’s 2008 number of .305
Quite simply, Verlander should have better overall numbers than he currently sports. Verlander’s Fielding Independent Pitching of 3.24 clearly expresses just how well he has pitched.
What’ll Make Verlander Successful From Here On Out?
Verlander has to locate his fastball and curveball — that simple.
It’s clear, at least to me, that Verlander is pitching the same way he did back in 2007. Verlander’s striking out more than a batter per inning, and has gotten his BB/9 back to 2006-2007 levels as it sits comfortably under 3 batters per 9.
| ER | K | BB | %Strike On FB | %Strike On CB | FB Speed | |
| @TOR | 8 | 4 | 2 | 57.69 | 61.9 | 95.9AVG/99.9MAX |
| TEX | 1 | 8 | 4 | 67.16 | 50 | 95AVG/98MAX |
| @SEA | 5 | 8 | 1 | 71.43 | 88 | 96AVG/99MAX |
| @LAA | 7 | 5 | 2 | 70 | 52 | 94.6AVG/96.8MAX |
| NYY | 0 | 9 | 0 | 77.14 | 72 | 95AVG/99.4MAX |
This is probably going to be the pattern for the majority of the year, except the Hits and ER’s should drop as the BABIP and LOB% work themselves out.
When Verlander’s locating his fastball and curveball at above 70-72 percent, he’ll be terrifically effective. Verlander’s lack of velocity in the LAA game stands out quite a bit, which leads me to believe that he was clearly tweaking something. Verlander had hit 98-100mph in each of the previous games, and suddenly he lost speed off his FB. Whatever he tweaked, definitely helped him in the Yankees game.
With Verlander, there aren’t going to be nasty outings, but rather nasty innings. So long as he locates his pitches, he’s got more than enough pure stuff to notch 8+ K per 9.
Verlander’s price just shot through the roof, but he’s definitely still worth buying at this juncture. It looks Verlander’s next two starts are against the Indians who are tied for second with 160 strike-outs as a team but are also amongst the lead-leaguers in Home Runs.
If you’re trying to acquire Verlander, this could be one of the bigger risks you’ll take all year. On one hand, Verlander could strike out 12 Indians no problem, but on the other hand they could go and take him deep a few times. If the Verlander-Owner in your league is demanding full-price, it’s still worth acquiring Verlander but it might be worth waiting one more start and hoping the Indians take him yard.
The worst case scenario is that Verlander goes another 7-shutout innings, and lowers his ERA to 5.40 on the season. If the owner doesn’t pay attention, then you should still be able to get Verlander on the cheap.
Here’s something else I picked up, but’ve yet to interpret it.
It appears as though Verlander may just be throwing a cut-fastball here and there. He wasn’t throwing them for strikes, but I’ve got a feeling those 5 fastball/sliders in the middle may just be Verlander picking up a cutter. Of course, Verlander could just be throwing a slider — but either way, it’s nice to see.
Give Dave Cameron’s Article On Verlander a read — I, of course, stumbled on it about 3 minutes ago which makes this article less than relevant.
