FTW

Khalil Greene – For The Win!

In standard 12 team mixed leagues, you’re accustomed to seeing Khalil Greene’s name atop the waiver wire.  The man just sits there like a plague, each and every year, waiting for some fool to notice his latest power surge between stints of being downright awful and add him to their roster.

A locale change and a terrific preseason resulted in Greene accomplishing something noteworthy — Greene opened the year rostered in almost all fantasy leagues.

The buzz was short-lived however, as Greene’s returned to his typical sub-.250 batting average and is now owned in a mere 43% of Yahoo leagues.

I’m in the business of blowing minds, and it’s time to go to work: 

Khalil Greene should be owned in all but the shallowest fantasy baseball leagues!

The Cardinals’ line-up is stacked with power hitters and Greene no longer plays half of his games at PETCO Park which consistently rates as one of the least hitter-friendly parks.  Even if nothing else had changed, this alone should keep Khalil Greene fantasy-relevant.

Tony LaRussa has shown the willingness to bat Khalil Greene just about anywhere in a potent Cardinals line-up. Pujols owns the number 3 spot, and at this point Greene isn’t a lead-off man, but other than that, the only place Greene hasn’t hit was in the 8-spot.  Whether Greene’s batting between Pujols and Ludwick, or Ludwick and Ankiel, makes very little difference to his overall fantasy value.

None of this would be relevant if Khalil Greene hadn’t showed the signs of a break-out. The knock on Khalil Greene has always been his low-average, high-strike out tendencies, which hit the breaking point last year in San Diego when Greene hit .213 and struck out 25.7% of the time, en route to posting an atrocious .22 BB:K ratio.

In sixty-four 2009 plate appearances, Greene has walked 8 times compared to only 7 strike-outs.  Greene definitely will not finish the season walking more than he strikes out, but this change in plate approach is mind-boggling. Through the month of April, Greene’s already more than a third of the way to his 2008 walk total of 22.   Greene’s well on his way to destroying his career-high 54 base on balls, which he posted in 2004.

Not only is Greene walking more, but he’s striking out less.  Once again, due to the tiny sample size, it’s insane to predict that Greene will maintain a K% of under 15 percent for the entire year, but this is a great sign. Greene’s lowest strike-out rate was again in his rookie campaign of 2004, where he struck out 19.4 percent of the time.

Greene’s rookie campaign of 2004 was by no means his most powerful campaign, but it was arguably his best campaign. In 139 Games, Greene posted career highs in AVG (.273) , OBP (.349) , OPS (.795), and wOBA(.338, ) and didn’t come close to them over the next four seasons.

Greene’s Plate Discipline has even reverted to the levels that were once expected after his stellar rookie season.  After two consecutive seasons of swinging at absolutely everything, Greene’s reduced his Swing-Rate nearly 10 percentage points, posting a 40% Swing Rate.  Once again, Greene’s previous low occurred in 2004, where he posted a 43% Swing Rate.

Of course, Swing Rate means very little by itself, but it’s components also look promising.  Compared to last year, Greene’s swinging at 15 percent less would-be Balls and only 9 percent less would-be Strikes.

His increased discipline has resulted in a career high Contact Percentage of 87.5%, which is well above his career average of 78.5%.  Greene’s making contact with 94 percent of pitches in the strike-zone that he offers at and 70 percent of pitches outside of the zone.

All of these numbers will certainly regress, but all of the signs are there for a Khalil Greene Break-Out Campaign are definitely there.

So What Gives? Greene’s Still Hitting Under .230!

Greene’s BABIP ( .227 ) – Greene isn’t going to blow your mind with his BABIP, but it should be a lot closer to his career average of .283

In The End…

Brendan Ryan isn’t much of a threat at this point and while Tony LaRussa is capable of doing anything — Greene’s been walking enough to maintain a rather strong grip on the starting shortstop gig.

When the hits start dropping, Greene will more than likely be moved back to the heart of the line-up and will produce.

There’s always the possibility that all of these numbers could just be a random distribution, but there seems to be a solid pattern screaming, “Improved Plate Discipline.”

Everyone should be writing Hal McRae a thank-you note because it appears as though his time spent with Khalil Greene could produce a Middle Infield Steal.

Greene’s always had the talent, he’s just had some serious issues putting it together.

For those about to add Greene, We Salute You.

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