I wrote an article about Rasmus vs. Schafer, but really didn’t get around to finishing it. Alas, over the past couple days, rosters are really starting to shape up. The Hot-Lanta Braves traded away one of my fav-five for cheap steals in 2009, Josh Anderson. This blind-sided me, bigtime. I realize that Schafer’s been smash-killing the ball to the tune of a .375-ish average this spring, but Schafer hadn’t been above AA. His .269 AVG in Double-A last year was misleading, and all signs pointed to a smash-kill season, just not in the show.
Going into Spring Training, I’d say this is a no-brainer: Rasmus over Schafer in a walk.
But in Bizzarro world, it’s Schafer with the starting gig and Rasmus fighting for AB. There’s really no way that Chris Duncan can hold off Rasmus, unless Rasmus goes through some serious woes. The only thing that could derail Rasmus is Skip Schumaker forgetting that he played a competent second-base all spring long. I followed Rasmus early in ST, and the results were not pretty. He was batting .200 for a damn long time, and striking out way too much:
Top prospect Colby Rasmus seemed to take La Russa’s advice to heart after a five-for-26 start to camp that included seven strikeouts. La Russa suggested a pressing Rasmus strive to hit for average rather than power while trying to work the middle of the field. Rasmus, 22, hit .328 after March 3 and made the opening-day roster as no worse than fourth outfielder. -stltoday.com
Schafer on the other hand has put that HGH-problem (snitches get stitches) behind him and killed the ball all spring. He looks to have the job all to himself, as he’s really the only capable center-fielder of the bunch, with the exception of Brandon Jones who was just optioned.
If Bobby Cox believes in Schafer, then so do I.
If we’re just looking at skill set, and pure talent: Rasmus wins, hands down — or at least as hands down as your average-joe can predict development, hands down.
Schafer’s still tough to judge, especially when you consider the HGH scandal. I’m not sure how long that shit stays in your system for, but I’m guessing it’s longer than the 50 Game suspension. Rasmus does project to have better power, and a better knack for picking the right time to steal.
This is why Rasmus cracks the top-5 on Baseball America’s rankings, and Schafer comes in around 50th.
Opportunity is a whole different ballgame. Schafer will probably start out batting 8th, but could easily be moved up into the lead-off spot in that Atlanta line-up. Rasmus on the other hand will undoubtedly fill LaRussa’s wonderful creation, the ‘second lead-off man’, for a good chunk of the season.
Part of what makes Rasmus great, his plus-power for a CF, will be negated if he ever steps up to lead-off for St. Louis. If Rasmus takes what LaRussa said to heart, he’ll continue to hit for average rather than power, which should at least in theory, keep his K-rate at a respectable percent. With Rasmus’ walk rate, realistically he only needs to hit .270 to be a useful lead-off hitter, even if he does strike-out 15-18% of the time.
Rasmus will eventually develop into a 3-hole guy, with the perfect combination of power-speed-patience; but at this point in his career his best shot at fantasy success is the lead-off role ahead of Ludwick, Pujols, Ankiel, and Schumaker.
In the end, both Rasmus and Schafer have a very solid shot at hitting atop of their respective line-ups by May. Unfortunately, breaking Rasmus of many of the habits that’ve helped him succeed thus far, could be a challenge.
This one might not be close in the end, as I’m assuming one of these two is going to smash-kill the fail-button pretty hard. At this point though, Rasmus’ upside really negates Schafer’s initial advantage out of the blocks.
One of these two could end up with 15 HR and 20 SB, which sits pretty well in deep leagues, even if they both end up batting in the .260-.270 range. I’m tempted to predict slightly better Run and RBI numbers for Rasmus, with Schafer not that far behind.
In the end, this is a PUSH. If you like Risk, go with Rasmus. If you’re down for the safer bet, take Schafer and his opening day gig. Basically, I’m bitching-out fairly hard-core on making a decision, but if this were a starting spot in my line-up, I’d more than likely lean towards Schafer. If this were a bench spot, or a keeper league — Rasmus for sure.
Schafer Photo Courtesy of Wallyg-flickr Rasmus courtesy of MWLguide-flickr
