I was watching Erik Bedard pick apart the Oakland Athletics, while Trevor Cahill did the same thing to Seattle ( a no-no through 6). Bedard was locating his breaking ball like you wouldn’t believe, and Cahill couldn’t help but throw a very, very, heavy fastball.
This, my friends, was an intense watch — Unfortunately, the DVR decided that it was time to record DogTown and The Fabulous Life Of…
I realize most people could care less about the life that I lead, but I chose The Fabulous Life of…Sugar Daddies.
Now, I will share with you why James Woods should be one of your favourite actors too. When asked about his relationship with 19-year old Alexy Thorn, Woods responded with:
If you ever bought a dog, what did you buy? You bought a fucking puppy… You don’t buy a 13-year-old German shepherd. You buy a nice young puppy — what are you, crazy?
James Woods has dated at least 2 or 3 different women that were almost 40 years younger than him. Can we all just pause for a moment and applaud?
Hey, isn’t this a Baseball Blog?
Hrm… Good Point.
Remember Your Rankings!
After watching Erik Bedard pitch, I’m sure you’re remembering his ultra-productive 2007 season with the O’s: 221 Strike-outs, 3.16 ERA, 1.09 WHIP. Bedard’s 3.19 FIP, shows that this wasn’t exactly a fluke.
When you drew up your pre-rankings, you probably slotted Bedard somewhere in the Edison Volquez, Ryan Dempster, Gil Meche range because of Bedard’s injury risk.
Bedard however just pitched an 8.1 inning gem, striking out 8 Oakland Athletics.
Does this do anything to change Bedard’s value? No, Not Really.
The same goes for Rich Harden, A.J. Burnett and basically every other power pitcher that’s an injury risk. The reason these pitchers weren’t rated in your top-10 had nothing to do with their pure stuff. Bedard, Harden and Burnett are probably top-10 pitchers based solely on stuff.
Even if Bedard, Harden and Burnett continue to dominate for the next month, two months, three months; How far can you realistically bump them up?
Of these three, Bedard has the most room for improvement due to the nature of his injury. Many pre-rankings didn’t expect Bedard to duplicate his 2008 numbers, let alone come close to his 2009 numbers. So any improvement on 8K per 9, and his 3.75 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, would actually warrant a raise in his rankings. It’s fairly unlikely that Bedard will actually improve on his projected effectiveness, though.
The point is to remember that you pre-ranked Harden, Burnett, and Bedard based on pitching anywhere between 140 and 180IP, and while they can lose value with poor performances — it’s very difficult to gain value.
Regardless of how well these pitchers play, it doesn’t increase their actual value. It does however increase their perceived value and I would be very quick to part with any of these pitchers if another owner offered me value based on any of these pitchers pitching 200+ innings.
In the end, you drafted these players based on their potential to pitch a full season, that was your gamble. You didn’t gamble on their performance, you gambled on them avoiding injuries. With players like Harden, Burnett and Bedard, if you didn’t draft them, you’re generally shit-out-of-luck.
Any owner that drafted these players will expect full 200+ IP value for these players, and there’s no way you can give him that (unless you have adverted risk everywhere else, then maybe.)
Regardless of how spectacular these pitchers are, they’re still massive injury risks and must be treated as such. If someone offers you a pitcher that was drafted 4 rounds higher than Bedard, and has next-to-no risk associated with him — SNAP IT UP.
Bedard, Burnett, and Harden could all top 200 innings pitched — I’m not saying they won’t. It’s up to you to decide what are fair odds on them pitching an entire season. However, you probably did that before the season in your pre-rankings, and 2 strike-out laden outings from Bedard does nothing to change his injury history.
For those of you who feel that Bedard is worth the risk, his fastball is coming in around 90-91mph which is much closer to his 2008, rather than 2007, velocity.
In the end, adjusting your projected IP based on effectiveness should be avoided like the plague. If you own someone like Bedard, enjoy the ride while it lasts or trade him to someone who’ll pay full value.
