FTW

Is Big Fat Brad Penny Worth Rostering?

Is Brad Penny Worth Rostering For a Full Season? …Hell No!

Is Brad Penny worth rostering for part of a season? Maybe, Let’s find out…

If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than a year, you know the story behind Brad Penny.

Penny is serviceable before the All-Star break, but downright awful after it.  We’ll give Penny a freebie for his injury plagued 2008 season, but here goes:

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After excusing 2008’s woopsie moments, we have a pretty solid pitcher.  Early in Penny’s career, he was equally as dominant after the All-Star break  and often better.  This is why Penny’s career splits aren’t quite what you’d expect.  Penny’s no longer that pitcher, so focusing on the recent past is the most beneficial.

Looking at Penny’s first half splits, who wouldn’t want a pitcher that posts a sub-4.00 ERA to go with a WHIP of 1.20?

Whether or not Penny can maintain those numbers is up for debate however.  Penny has only ever pitched in two of the better pitches parks in the MLB: Florida and Los Angeles.

However, Penny also posted a better ERA and WHIP on the ROAD in both 2007 and 2006. Without digging too deep, this is almost certainly a result of pitching in the NL West.  In addition to the Dodgers’ home park, San Diego and San Francisco are also two of the pitcher-friendliest parks in the league.

You should expect somewhat of an increase in Penny’s ERA switching  from the NL West to the AL East. In addition to more hitter-friendly parks and better hitters, Penny will also now be facing a DH.

Luckily, most of the hitters haven’t seen Penny yet, which should give him some leeway early in the season; which is when we’ll be rostering him.

Now, the only question is whether or not Brad Penny is the same pitcher after last year’s nagging injury induced shoulder pain.

In 2008, Penny’s average fastball speed dipped more than 1mph to 92.4mph rendering Penny less than effective.

Penny’s effective when he’s averaging 93-94mph and hitting 95-96mph.

Let’s take a look at Penny’s start against Anaheim, which he’s allowed 3 Runs in 6 Innings work, thus far.

Penny’s average fastball is coming in at 92.5mph — uh, oh.

Digging deeper we find that Penny started out throwing 88-89mph to Figgins in the first, and slowly started to amp up his speed.  By the second inning, he was hitting 94mph against T. Hunter, 93mph against Morales, and 95mph against Juan Rivera.

By the third inning, Penny was consistently hitting 93-95mph, which is where he needs to be.

Penny maintained this speed well into the game, and was still hitting 94-95mph well into the 6th inning.

Penny’s final line on the day: 6IP, 3ER, 2K, 2BB, 5H, 2HR — which isn’t all that bad considering he was held for most of Spring Training.

Penny’s next three starts are: vs. BALTIMORE, vs. MINNESOTA, @CLEVELAND.

I can’t completely recommend Penny until reports come out about how his shoulder feels tomorrow, but if 6IP and 3ER is rosterable in your league, then Penny’s worth an add.

Obviously, this is probably all for not because some Red Sox homer undoubtedly already owns Penny.

If you’re in a league that values performance over name-recognition though, Penny’s probably sitting on your waiver-wire and you should think about Rent-A-Penny for the next month or two.

If you do pick up Penny, be sure to keep an eye out for injury reports and his velocity (which you can follow on MLB gameday)

One final caveat about Brad Penny: There are almost certainly better options on your waiver-wire, so think before you grab Brad Penny.

Photo Courtesy of Malingering . Flickr

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