If you drafted Liriano, you’re stuck with him. After two lackluster outings, you probably will have to trade him for seventy-five cents on the dollar, which I wouldn’t recommend.
Liriano did however look anything but a fantasy ace today against the Chicago White Sox giving up 5 ER in 4.2 IP. Liriano allowed 4 walks, 6 hits to go with 3 strike-outs.
This comes after he lead off the season with a 7 IP, 4 H, 4ER, 3K performance against the lowly Seattle Mariners.
Undergoing Tommy John surgery, nearly two and a half years ago, in the fall of 2006, Liriano should be good to go by now — he’s not.
Unfortunately, MLB’s GameDay data magically dissappeared for today’s outing against the White Sox, so we’ll have to rely on the miniscule sample size of the Seattle game.
Liriano’s base-line for awesomeness:
- Throw Hard: 95mph average fastball in 2005-2006
- Throw Slider: 37% of the time, at 87.7mph
Unfortunately, these are the qualities that caused Liriano to undergo Tommy John surgery, and these are the qualities he’s shying away from.
In 2008, a year and a half after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it was clear that Liriano was protecting his elbow. His fastball averaged out at 91mph, and his slider at 83.7mph. Liriano also shyed away from his slider, throwing it 10% less than previous years.
There was optimism though; Over the course of the season Liriano slowly began adding velocity to his fastball and slider, eventually raising their velocities to 91.2mph and 84.9mph.
The movement was still there, but it’s far easier to achieve the same movement at lesser speeds.
Francisco Liriano in 2009
Fastball 91.9mph, Slider 85.4mph. Liriano also threw his slider about 30 percent, which we can’t gather too much from, considering it’s only one game.
Liriano’s velocity is up from the previous fall, but it’s still nowhere close to where it was when he dominated.
The question becomes whether or not he’ll ever return to that point, and the answer is, probably not.
What made Liriano ridiculously unhittable was the amount of movement he achieved on a slider thrown so hard. Batters would flail at pitches, and just look silly — this is how Liriano managed to post almost 11 strike outs per 9, in his first full major league season.
There is a glimmer of hope, which I’ve omitted purposely up until now, and that’s Liriano’s change-up. The pitch has ridiculous potential, and he’s going to have to use it to be successful.
Liriano still may add another mile per hour onto all of his pitches, but I’m pretty certain the Twins will limit him. They already screwed up once allowing him to pitch a full 200 innings between levels in 2008.
It’s a shame that the PFX cameras were down in Chicago, as I’ve been planning on watching this start for a week. Alas, with an improved change-up, Liriano can still be a high-sevens strike-outs per 9 pitcher – It’s not the end of the world.
Unfortunately, batters will continue to swing less and make more contact against Liriano, which’ll drastically decrease his fantasy value. With batters swinging less at pitches Liriano throws outside of the zone, Liriano will have to improve his control to succeed.
The things Liriano got away with in the past, are indeed, the past.
I’m not saying dump Liriano, but I am saying monitor his average velocity and pitch distribution very carefully over the coming weeks.
Photo Courtesy of Jon McNab
