FTW

ESPN Added/Dropped Analysis

Yanno, if you throw enough shit against the wall some will stick.  For the most part, I forget about fantasy baseball series I try to put together.  I figure this one might stick though, it seems to have a solid premise: analyze who’s gettin’ picked up and who’s gettin’ dropped.

Tonight, we’ll do the Top-10 (ish) most added guys in an ESPN league.

Most Added

1. Ryan Franklin – RP | STL – Why? Saves

   Franklin’s notched 5 SV so far this year after going 17/25 in SV opportunities last year.  Jason Motte and Chris Perez both have harder stuff, but as long as Franklin continues to produce, LaRussa will ride ‘em.  Franklin has struck out a batter per inning and it appears to be directly correlated to him sacrificing movement for speed on his slider, which has essentially become a cut-fastball.   Gone are the days of Franklin’s 85mph slider; Franklin’s relying on a 90mph cutter now! He’s been close to the zone with it, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased effectiveness.

   Prediction: I’m stumped on this one.  Just about every expert is going to say that Franklin will come in at about 12-15 Saves in a couple different stints as closer, but Franklin’s new-found reliance on the cutter is intriguing.  Could I see Franklin notching 30 Saves? Yah, Sorta.  It’s not sexy, but Franklin looks really good right now.

2. Jarrod Washburn – SP | SEA – Why? Hot-Streak

   Way back in December Peter Bendix made a point, a very good point, about Jarrod Washburn here. The point was, Washburn’s predictable as hell and Seattle’s defense improved enough to make a difference.  With that said, it makes sense to predict Washburn as a guy that can eat up innings, and provide you with around 100-120K’s and an ERA in the low fours.  With that said, Washburn’s been dominant, posting a 1.71 ERA, 7.29 K/9, and  1.71 BB/9.  Washburn’s never posted a K:BB rate of above 2.36, let alone anything near his current 4.25 K/BB.

   Even though Washburn’s clearly getting a bit lucky posting a higher than normal strand-rate, lower than normal BABIP, and a HR/FB rate that’s bound to rise; None of these explain why Washburn’s notching the K’s. Other than a marginal increase in velocity, there’s nothing that stands out as an indicator of increased long-term performance.

   Prediction: Maybe Washburn can get his line up to 6K per 9, but I don’t see him maintaining his current pace.  With that said, of all the players on the list — I’m least confident in Washburn.

3. Yadier Molina – C | STL – Why? Hot-Streak

   If you don’t have one of the big-boys, there’s no harm in picking up whichever catcher’s on a roll. Molina hit another Home Run tonight, and while Molina isn’t going to maintain a .900 OPS, he should be useful.  There’s really no bad spot to hit in that stacked St. Louis line-up.

   Prediction: If LaRussa continues batting Molina in the heart of that line-up rather than the 8-spot, he’s definitely amongst the top-12 catchers, especially with Doumit’s recent injury.  Frustrated Doumit owners could do a lot worse than picking up the hot-hitting Yadier Molina.  Expecting a .285-.295 AVG with some pop here and there is a safe bet.  I don’t see him hitting over .300 again this year, but he’ll come close enough to keep owners happy.

4. Aaron Hill – 2B | TOR – Why? Healthy

   I covered Aaron Hill yesterday, right here.

   Prediction: Probably one of the better values you’re going to find on the waiver-wire this year, but don’t expect him to keep producing at quite this pace.

5. Mike Lowell – 3B | BOS – Why? Healthy

   Well, Mike’s probably as close to 100% as he’s going to get and anyone in that Red Sox line-up is worth considering.   Lowell’s torrid RBI pace is bound to slow down at some point when the Fly-Balls stop translating directly into HR (16.4% HR/FB.)

   Prediction: Lowell’s a must-add in almost all formats, especially in leagues with an active waiver-wire or a fair amount of DL spots.  At some point, he’ll eventually get knicked up so you’ll probably want to have a replacement handy.  In leagues with squat on the WW, the possibility of matching 2007′s epic 120 RBI season may just outweigh the injury risk.

6. Chris Duncan – OF | STL – Why? Opportunity

   The Cards are apparently the talk of the fantasy baseball world this week after putting together a nice little win-streak.  Duncan has all sorts of natural power, but he’s competing with Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel for playing time.  Over the course of his career, Duncan’s had a lot of trouble with lefties (.213/.270/.367) compared to righties (.282/.376/.521.)  Thus far in 2009, Duncan’s actually hitting lefties for a better average, but that’s probably more to do with luck than skill.  However, hitting .320 with an .866 OPS against lefties  cannot be completely over-looked, even if it is just 25 ABs.  Duncan’s also cut down on his swings on balls outside of the zone, which is nice to see.

   Prediction: Duncan’s shown quite a bit of improvement but he’ll still be benched here and there, especially if he starts slumping against lefties again.  However, if you’re in a deep league where pitchers do not occupy the entirety of your bench, I’d own Duncan.  One of my favourite strategies in fantasy baseball is taking sluggers with huge platoon splits, and combining them.  While sometimes it’ll work out such that both of your sluggers are facing same-handed guys, for the most part you’ll always have at least one of them facing an opposite handed pitcher.  It used to be a pain in the arse to implement this strategy, but Yahoo and ESPN have made it much easier with the match-up button.

7. Asdrubal Cabrera – MI | CLE – Why? Break-Out Candidate

   I’ve been high on Cabrera as a bargain-basement middle infielder for a while.  I still see him more as a late in the line-up kinda guy, unless shit hits the fan.  Cabrera did bat 2nd tonight, but for the most part that spot will be occupied by DeRosa.  However, batting 9th in Cleveland isn’t that bad of a gig.  Cabrera stole 23 bases in 2007, so the 3 SB aren’t that surprising.

   Prediction: Sure, I can see Cabrera stealing 15 or 16 bases with a solid .275 average but that’s probably his ceiling.   You could do a lot worse than Cabrera, and while his K percentage is concerning (22%,) he’s negating the majority of it with an amazing 17% BB-Rate.  Even if he regresses to a .350 OBP, he’ll contribute across the board on the cheap.

8. Wandy Rodriguez – SP | HOU – Why? Break-Out Candidate

   Wandy’s got all sorts of potential and the only thing holding him back has been his unbelievable Home-vs-Road Splits.  Go ahead and take a look, it’s brutal. I’ve yet to figure out why someone would have such a noticeable, consistent Home vs. Away Split.  Maybe Wandy loves to party, maybe he just needs the comforts of home,  either way, he’s a must own.

   Prediction: You’ve got to pick up Wandy at least for the time being.  Unlike  most speculative picks, Wandy cannot hurt you so long as you bench him for road-starts for the first couple of weeks. The best case scenario is that he fixes whatever’s broken. The worst case scenario is that you only get 90-100 IP of a strike-out per inning, low-ERA, tiny-WHIP, baseball.  That’s almost what you got from Chamberlain in relief last year!

9. Scott Downs – RP | TOR – Why? Saves

   B.J. Ryan’s on the DL, and even when he comes back, I doubt he’ll be effective.  As it stands now, Downs is the best option coming out of the Toronto pen.  You should definitely keep an eye out for Jason Frasor and his brand-spankin’ new change-up.  Downs and Frasor are polar-opposites and Downs’ ground-ball tendencies (3.50 GB/FB) may be better served in the 8th inning or higher leverage situations. Downs’ closed it out tonite for the Blue Jays, recording his second save of the season.  With 14 strike-outs in not-quite 11 IP, Downs is one of the better late relievers in the game.

   Prediction: Downs will get his fair share of saves, but the Blue Jays should slow down at some point.  Between Downs, Frasor, and Ryan — no one should get more than 15 Saves.

10. Kosuke Fukudome – OF | CHC – Why? Break-Out Candidate

    A lot was expected from Fukudome in his rookie season but he faded badly down the stretch. Fukudome hit another HR and knocked in 5 RBI tonite — so he’ll probably shoot up this list tomorrow morning.  Even if Kosuke wasn’t hitting quite this well, batting in the two-hole of that Cubs line-up definitely makes him rosterable.  Kosuke slumped badly last year, and it could have been a number of things from Culture Shock to Home-Sickness, to a bad case of the crabs — We’ll never know. What we do know is that Kosuke looks right.

    Prediction: Unless your league forces you to hold onto a player for the entire year, go ahead and pick up Fukudome.  I can think of a fair number of outfielders that I’d ‘drop to pick up this Cubbie.  While the power potential isn’t there, he could realistically hit in the high-teens and it woudln’t surprise me to see him double last year’s power-output.

11. Jason Kubel – OF | MIN – Why? Break-Out? Potential? Streak? Healthy?

    If Kubel lives up to his endless potential this year and finally goes a year without hurting himself — I’ll be pretty cheesed.  Fucking Jason Kubel, what a headache.  I won’t even do you the service of explaining why you’re rosterable.  Instead, I’ll recommend you as a must-own while you’re healthy, which’ll probably be another 2 weeks.

I’m going to need to work on this format, but it’s tough to find a base-line player to compare these guys too.  If I start saying you should drop Justin Upton for Kosuke Fukudome, then I’ll have to spend another three paragraphs explaining why I’m low on Justin Upton.

I’m hoping to find a different source for added dropped, as ESPN standard leagues only contain ten teams.  For the majority of people that aren’t in an ESPN league, almost all of the guys I listed are probably already owned.

If you have any recommendations, or comments — or tips! Shoot me an email, or comment away.