Jeff Jarrett, an up-and-coming country music star, needed to add some buzz to his music career so he took up wrasslin‘ in the Dubya-Dubya-Eff in 1993.
Jarrett, an incredible wrestler, decided on the catch-phrase “AIN’T I GREAT?”
Josh Johnson, Marlin’s starting pitcher, apparently has laid claim to not just the moniker Double-J, but also the “AINT I GREAT” catch-phrase.
So great that the boys over at ESPN have decided he’s worthy of a major spot on the ESPN fantasy page.
Johnson, a 25-year old righty, has been floating around the Marlins rotation since 2005, but has run into his fair share of injuries. Luckily, unlike other Marlin’s youngsters, he’s refrained from getting tasered by police.
Jul 10, 2008: Missed 91 games (elbow surgery).
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 77 games of the regular season (forearm injury).
Jun 18, 2007: Missed 70 games (bicep injury). (courtesy of sportsnet)
Johnson’s yet to pitch a full-season in the majors, but has succeeded in each of his brief sprints. 2006 was Johnson’s most successful season, as he managed to rack up 133 strike-outs in 157 IP, while posting a 3.10 ERA, and a 3.99 FIP.
In 2008, Johnson managed 87 IP, a 7-1 record, 77 K and a 3.61 ERA.
So Is Josh Johnson The Fantasy Jesus?
2 Wins, 0.56 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 15 K in 15.2 IP – That’s Johnson so far in 2009, and it’s true, he may indeed be the Jesus.
Johnson’s posted these numbers against two fairly solid offenses in the Mets and Nats — unfortunately, neither of these two clubs has looked quite right against anyone yet.
Johnson’s Stuff
Josh Johnson and Stun-Gun-Scott Olsen
Rotoworld.com reports that Johnson’s trimmed a few mph off his slider during Spring Training which has probably contributed to his improved effectiveness. I’ll do a pfx analysis of Johnson’s slider over the next couple days, but it’s almost a given that it’s been biting more.
Aside from his above average slider, Johnson throws hard — real hard. His average fastball velocity is up a couple miles per hour over his previous seasons. This is further evidence that he’s put the Tommy John surgery behind him, and is no longer being nagged by his bicep/forearm.
Johnson’s fastball is coming in at 94.7mph, on average. Everyone knows Johnson can hit 95-96mph on the radar gun, but to average 95 is almost ridiculous. This puts Johnson very close to Ubaldo Jiminez’s league-leading 2008 number of 94.9.
Velocity isn’t everything though, as you can see by Johnson’s peers at the top of the velocity board: Ubaldo Jiminez, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, and Edwin Jackson. Verlander has all sorts of potential, but it just seems to go to waste. Edwin Jackson’s also very interesting, and will be looked at in a later article.
Johnson’s also added 1mph onto his change-up, increasing it’s value to 88.5mph too.
Josh Johnson isn’t quite this good…
Johnson’s increased velocity has resulted in 8.62 K per 9, which while it’s a small sample size, is still telling us something. It would be wise to up your projections for his K to 9 from previous years, but at this point — Johnson’s probably more of a 8 K per 9 guy, rather than a 9 K per 9 guy.
Johnson’s leaving everyone on base (90% LOB), and the hits aren’t falling (.291 BABIP). So we should obviously expect regression from his sub-1.00 ERA. Currently his Fielding Independent Pitching, is sitting at a crisp 1.52.
The nice thing about Josh Johnson, is that he’s only walked 1 batter, producing a BB:9 of 0.50. Josh Johnson may improve on the 3.50 BB/9 predicted by the robots — but he’s not a 0.50 BB per 9 type guy. I’d put Johnson at about 2.50 BB per 9, which still makes him a reliable fantasy option. This should put him at about 3 strike-outs per walk, which is floating in ACE territory.
Where do we go from here…
Johnson’s always been average with his pitch control: producing a league-average amount of swinging strikes both inside and outside of the zone. Johnson’s average across the board, and throws about an average amount of first pitch strikes.
In 2009 however, Johnson’s getting a lot more swinging strikes outside of the zone (28%), and a lot less contact on those (44%) pitches. Combine this with Johnson throwing about 10 percent more first-pitch strikes, and we’ve got a dominant pitcher.
Conclusion
Johnson’s got dirty stuff, and taking a bit off his slider really appears to have helped him. Johnson’s bringing it at 95mph, and batters are going to be baffled, so long as he maintains his velocity. Contrary to the basic principles of physics, the ball tends to go further as it gets warmer which is mainly do to hitters being able to stay loose.
While you’d expect a bit of regression on Johnson’s part, he’s shown that he has a great arsenal and potential Cy Young stuff.
Unfortunately, Johnson’s still a massive injury risk. While Johnson’s out there, I’d expect a sub-3.50 ERA, with the potential for a sub-3.00. If Johnson’s improved control is for real, the days of him posting 1.30-WHIPs are long gone. He’s definitely more of a 1.20-WHIP guy, at this point.
Johnson’s blazing fastball will catch your eye, but what you should focus on is his new-found control. If he returns to the pitcher that walks 3 per 9, then you’ll want to sell high. If he can keep it under 2.50 — expect Ace-Like numbers.
Whether or not Johnson can get 200 IP is up in the air. I’d probably set the over/under at about 160 IP, with Johnson’s history.
If I was a Johnson owner, I’d wait about a month or two before I shopped him. There is definitely still value in acquiring Johnson at this point, but in the long-term you’ll want to trade him when the Dog-Days of August roll around.
Great Stuff, Great Park, Solid Offense is what a Fantasy Ace needs.
Photo Courtesy of WallyG Flickr
