FTW
Chris Davis, TEX: Getting What You Paid For…
April 25, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
The day Christopher Davis hit puberty was the day his career path was set: Chris was going to be a Major League Baseball player, or an alcoholic State Trooper that sat at home polishing his revolver, cheek packed with chewing tobacco, watching, you guessed it, Major League Baseball.
Standing six-foot-four, weighing in at 235 pounds, and sporting one of the dirtier beards in the show, Davis definitely looks like a ball player. When Davis swings, he swings hard, and when Davis makes contact, it goes a long way. Everything about Davis screams pure-power, and he definitely didn’t disappoint during his short stint in the big leagues to close out 2008.
The new year hasn’t been nearly as kind to Davis and his power-producing uppercut swing. Davis’ line thus far: .200 Batting Average, .259 On-Base Percentage, and a .400 Slugging Percentage.
What Experts Saw: .285 Batting Average, .264 ISO and 17 HR in 295 AB
In limited action, Davis destroyed opposing pitching. Three-Hundred plate appearances is nowhere near enough to adequately judge Davis, but it is enough to start to get a feel for him as a hitter. Considering his minor-league track record, where Davis progressed rapidly through the Rangers’ system, definitely helps support the prevailing projections for Davis.
What The Experts Looked Past: High K, Low BB, Poor Plate Discipline
Davis’ aggressive plate approach (30% K-Rate and 6% BB-Rate in 2008) isn’t exactly unique for a power hitting first baseman: Adam Dunn (31%), Carlos Pena (33.9%), and Ryan Howard (32.6%) all struck out more than 30 percent of the time in 2008.
Unlike Davis, these sluggers had the discipline to walk more than 6 percent of the time. Adam Dunn lead the pack with a .75 Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio, with Carlos Pena (.58 BB:K) and Ryan Howard (.41 BB:K) also besting Davis’ abysmal .23 BB:K Ratio.
Of the High-ISO / High-K Sluggers, Davis sat amongst some rather painful names with regards to BB:K rate in 2008: Marcus Thames, Cody Ross, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Shoppach and Mike Jacobs all pop off the page. Playing in Arlington definitely helps Davis’ case, but at which point do you draw the line?
Davis’ plate discipline wasn’t any better, and it’s a wonder the kid hit .285 in 2008. Davis wasn’t quite in Alexei Ramirez-land, but he did swing at 37% of pitches that were thrown outside of the zone. In turn, pitchers adapted by throwing Davis fewer strikes and Davis couldn’t lay-off.
2009 has been a complete disaster for Davis, and you better prepare yourself before reading this, Chris Davis has only made contact with 57 percent of pitches thrown within the strike-zone. Davis isn’t a contact hitter and he did post an 11th worst, 79% zone-contact rate in 2008 ( PA > 300,) but this is unbearable. Davis’ 56 percent Z-Contact is good for dead-last by almost 15 points — we’re talking AWFUL (or a broken fangraphs.com computer.)
In The End…
Small sample size warnings apply to slumping players too! Davis’ entire track-record shows that he’s a capable hitter, regardless of his lack of discipline. Davis may not walk 10 percent of the time in the bigs, but he’ll definitely improve upon his 3.8% BB-Rate and 50% K-Rate.
By drafting Chris Davis, you drafted an undisciplined power hitter and you had to figure that things could get ugly. Please refrain from dropping him, but rather understand he’s nowhere near this awful. He’s bound to lock in, and make solid contact more than 57 percent of the time.
Going into the draft, I couldn’t help but warn people against drafting Davis at his hype-machine value. However, if you can get Davis at 75-85 cents on the dollar or even 90 cents — BUY, BUY, BUY! Davis has recorded a hit in each of his last four games, and is clearly starting to come around. The window to acquire Davis will probably come crashing shut sometime in the next week, so if you’re going to chase him, now’s the time.
Up until last night when Davis smashed a home-run with a broken bat, I’d thought about the possibility of a lingering injury, but until I hear something conclusive I’ll consider him healthy. The possibility of Davis having one of those ‘too well for the dl, too sore to perform’ -type injuries still keeps me up at night (apparently until 1:36AM.)
Unless the Rangers do something ridiculous like send Davis down to the Minors for seasoning, he should produce ’round about where he was projected to on the year — which of course means, some monster hot streaks.
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