Hype Machine
Brad Ziegler and the Athletics ‘Pen
April 8, 2009 by kris · 2 Comments
Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.
In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues. Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.
…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:
- Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
- Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
- Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
- All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06
So what’s the deal with Ziegler?
He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.
Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.
Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit. In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.
This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.
Who Steps In?
Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL. Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.
Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80’s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.
Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB
25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.
Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.
Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer. He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.
In the end…
The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.
There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer. Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.
Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.
Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.
Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr
Related posts:
- Is Big Fat Brad Penny Worth Rostering? Is Brad Penny Worth Rostering For a Full Season? …Hell...
- Taking Care of Business – A Closer Report Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report I need a...
Related posts brought to you by Yet Another Related Posts Plugin.
I sure hope you aren’t too attached to your ‘name’ with you betting it against Ziegler! The very stats you seem hog-tied to are the ones that confound opposing hitters and managers. And a frustrated opponent is a beatable opponent.
Sidearmers do not fit into the molds of those with more common deliveries. As a result, they defy the odds constantly and confound the hitters consistently. The actual key here is that a sidearmer with good control (a la Ziegler) is dependent on out-thinking and out-positioning the batters they face. And if we could really quantify THAT skill, then you’d be even more amazed by the numbers for this young phenom.
The lucky ones who got to follow this young man’s career through college and the minors are well-acquainted with his ability to get inside the batters’ heads. The rest of you will just have to be amazed as he continues to exhibit an uncanny ability to keep the infield alive and interested and engaged during his late-inning appearances. What are the stats on how many of those infamous grounders do NOT require the fielders to shift more than a step or two as they turn those DP’s?
Get used to it … and , I guess, start thinking about a new name.
Ziegler’s one of my favourite players, and he was nice enough to sign a piece of art which if you’d like you can check out here
But, they’re no denying the fact that he got lucky, really lucky in 2008. The problem for Ziegler is going to be his splits. I think he’s much more of an 8th inning guy, and while he may be a better pitcher than the rest of the guys in the pen, his skill set doesn’t really work for me.
I think 10-12 Saves is a realistic upside for Ziegler. He won’t give up the big home run, but if team’s start loading up on lefties ( thankfully the AL WEST only has a few bigname lefties) then Ziegler will be in trouble.