I’ve been working on this for a bit, but like the multitude of things I start doing; there’s about a fifty-fifty shot that I’ll finish it. I’m not sure if I’ll ever finish this tribute to the great Edwin Encarnacion, but I’ll try. If not, once this magazine gets settled in, I’ll go about posting the 30 or so half-finished articles that demand that you draft a player, without ever getting to telling you why you should draft him.
Edwin Encarnacion is coming in at, get ready: the 16th third basemen off the board, and the 197th pick according to ESPN and he’s went up 10 spots in the past week. Ridiculous!
Third base is deep this year, real deep, but can Encarnacion outproduce Guillen, Cantu, Gordon, Figgins, Zimmerman, Huff, Beltre, Atkins and Davis? You’re damn right he can, and I’d bet the farm that he’ll fall in the top half of that group fantasy wise.
Let’s start with the bad, and work our way to the good:
Stolen Bases: You’ll get 4 or 5, maybe if the Lord looked down and said to Encarnacion, “Run, My Child, Run!”; He might go and steal 8 bases matching his career high of 2 years ago.
Double-E
Batting Average: Last year wasn’t a banner year for Edwin, and he managed to post a less than spectacular .251 batting average. This is pretty much the line where Batting Averages start to negatively effect you, at least in my books. Anything lower than .250 and you really have to hold it again the guy.
There’s plenty of hope though, and the robots have Double-E coming in at BJ: .278, Chone: .281, Marcel: .271, Oliver: .267 and Zips: .272. These are solid enough batting average numbers, and after posting .276 and .289 in his previous two seasons, the .251 really seems like a year we can forget about.
While third base is deep this year, they aren’t the best at hitting for average. If you’re name isn’t Chipper, Wright, or A-Rod — you’re happy if you’re putting up a .285 average on the year.
Encarnacion’s K percentage is concerning, floating around 20.2% but his 10.8% walk rate gives him at least a tolerable .60 BB to K ratio. His BB:K ratio is what separates him from the other guys around his talent level.
Runs and RBIs: This is where Edwin Encarnacion lags behind the competition as the great Marco Scutaro scored one more run, and his 60 RBI are what you’d expect from a light-hitting middle infielder.
So, will this change? Indeedly do, it will.
- The Reds are maturing as a team, and you’d expect improvement from both Votto and Bruce who will more than likely bat on each side of Edwin Encarnacion.
- The Reds now have Willy Taveras, and Chris Dickerson batting ahead of Double-E who’ll probably hit anywhere from the 3-hole to the 6-hole. He’ll more than likely come in at the clean-up spot with both Dunn and Griffey out of the picture.
- While Taveras and Phillips aren’t known for their OBP, they’ll both score runs.
Realistically, how much of an improvement can we expect from Edwin Encarnacion? I’d probably go with 10-15 in both categories, making Encarnacion a very valuable commodity. A lot of it will depend on how well the Reds improve and mature, as they’re still youngins. He’ll probably improve on the 506AB he logged last year, if he manages to stay healthy. 85 of both RBI and RUNS is a solid estimate, and who knows, he could get to 90.
Power, or Home Runs: Edwin made use of those 506 AB last year, hitting 26 HR which is somewhat in no-man’s land when it comes to third basemen with nine different 3-baggers hitting at least 25HR and five more hitting at least 20HR. The good news is they’re all fairly bunched together, with A-Rod leading the pack with 35HR.
Encarnacion came in with a .215 Isolated power, and .466 Slugging percentage which puts him in fairly elite third base company: Only A-Rod, Longoria, Ramirez, Wright, and Mini-Dunn, Mark Reynolds bested Edwin in Isolated Power. Glaus, Mora and Cantu are added to the group when looking at Slugging percentage, which puts Edwin pretty much square in the center of the rankings.
Expecting ’round about the same numbers seems right. Edwin could keep his batting average around .250 and improve on his HR totals, and get to the sexy-side of 30 or he could, as I believe he will, keep his power numbers around the 25 mark while returning his batting average to a very respectable .285. It’s all about plate approach.
Finally, Who Wants To Get Lucky? I hate focusing too much on luck, or claiming that a low BABIP is solely a representation of bad luck but Edwin Encarnacion’s .267 Batting Average On Balls In Play is ugly, real ugly.
We should expect a return to, at the very least, the .300-range. What this ought to do is improve Encarnacion’s numbers across the board.
The Conclusion: Edwin is going far too low in almost every league I’ve seen, there’s no reason to draft a third basemen early with such depth at the position. I’d avoid the high-end third-basemen unless they fell into my lap. As I mentioned, Longoria’s going way too early with such depth at the position. I see Edwin finishing somewhere in the range of the 7th best third basemen, and I’d try to grab him as late as possible. Maybe split the difference in projected finish and his current draft spot and grab him somewhere in the 140s or 150s — I think I’d draft him in the top-100 if need be.
thumbnail photo courtesy of Architekt2.Flickr
