It’s almost opening day, and it’s about time to look at some roster-fillers in moderately deep leagues. I’ve always been hesitant to blabber on about early round draft picks, because for the most part you’re not going to win or lose the draft in the first 10-rounds, unless your competition is a group of no-nothing idiots.
Matt Joyce
Joyce was acquired by the Rays late last year for Edwin Jackson, in what was widely heralded as a brilliant move for the Rays. The Rays, who are stuffed full of nutritiously delicious starting pitcher depth, magically turned a 2009-arbitration eligible starting pitcher into a power hitting right fielder with a cheap price-tag for 2 more years.
Unfortunately for the Rays, Matt Joyce has been battling a mysterious calf strain. The MRI’s have shown it to just be a strain, but it has plagued him essentially the whole of spring training. Joyce finally did pitch hit and DH against the Yankees on Sunday, the 22nd.
Joyce was originally slated to be the Rays starting right fielder, giving the Rays one of the better defensive outfields in the game. At this point, after missing all of camp, it’ll be interesting to see what the Rays do. Almost all of the media outlets are reporting that there’s a better than average shot that Joyce doesn’t even start the year in the Bigs.
While I understand Joyce is a young kid who needs all the seasoning he can get, he’s still a better option in right field than anyone the Rays can throw out there. Even if we assume Joyce doesn’t play for a month, or is limited to platoon duty — what should be expected?
- Hits Righties
- Good Power
- Low Average
- Lots of Strike-outs
- Lots of Walks
- Very Solid Defense
We’re basically looking at a guy, like Adam Dunn, who possesses less fantasy value than real world value (assuming your league doesn’t use OBP or award points for BBs).
It’s going to be tough to project Joyce’s batting average this year. While he did hit a very solid .270 in triple-A before the call-up, which he followed up with a .252 AVG in Detroit; We may have a player who hits for somewhere between .220 and .240.
It’s somewhat painful projecting an optimistic-ceiling for Joyce’s batting average at .270, but it’s gotta be done.
Joyce should come in somewhere in the low-.250′s, if he’s played substantially from each side of the plate. If Joyce is limited to platoon duty, he may emerge as a Jayson Werth-lite, posting somewhere in the neighborhood of .270ish with power.
Joyce’s consistent walk rate of 10+ percent, doesn’t negate his striking out over a quarter of the time, but it helps. If Joyce can float somewhere in the .50 BB to K rate, he’ll provide useful pop to the back-end of your fantasy line-up.
With the front of the Rays line-up solidified, it looks as though Joyce will be manning the 6 or 7th spot behind Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Pena and Burrell. You shouldn’t be fooled by Pena and Burrell’s low averages, as their high-OBP (both are projected above .375-OBP) will produce ample RBI opportunities for the power-hitting Joyce.
Even if Joyce bats at the tail end of the Rays line-up, he’s still in position to knock in his fair share with Barlett and Navarro manning the other two spots. The depth in Tampa renders Joyce’s position in the batting order negligible when determining his fantasy value. Joyce’s solid ~.35oOBP should also keep him on-base enough to score his fair share.
Assuming Joyce gets healthy, and nabs the starting gig no more than a month into the season — What should we expect?
65 to 70 of both Runs and RBIs should be in the cards, to go along with 20-25 HR power. The majority of the statistical models project Joyce below the 20-HR mark for the upcoming 2009 season, but I couldn’t disagree more. The only thing keeping Joyce from hitting ‘taters is his playing time. If he gets 460, or 451 AB as predicted by Zips and Oliver respectively, he’ll smash-kill the ball.
Whether or not a final line of 22HR, 68 RBI, 70 R, .245 AVG and 2 SB is useful, really depends on your league.
If it isn’t, I can guarentee you that there will at least be a few hot-streaks where Joyce is rosterable even in the shallowest leagues. Of course a great month doesn’t make a great season.
Keep an eye out for Joyce, as Gross and Zobrist can only man that RF spot for so long. If Joyce continues to be plagued by this injury, we’ve got a problem. All the signs were there, and technically still are there, for a hidden gem but nothing kills a fantasy sleeper like missing Spring Training.
Assume Joyce goes for 16HR/60R/60RBI/.250 if he stays in that platoon for too long, and lower it further if his injury really lingers. One bright spot, if you can call it that, is Joyce’s average will improve the more he’s platooned (to a ceiling of about .260 – .270, let’s not go crazy here).
