Positional Rankings, starting pitcher rankings

Keeper Dynasty League, Starting Pitcher Ranks

I’ve created the list of the best keepers for your dynasty league, and now it’s time to give a little follow-up as to why they’ve fallen into their corresponding places.

When ranking players, I generally analyze them in this order:

1. Big League Experience
2. Talent with heavy emphasis on K-Rate & BB-Rate for younger players.
3. Opportunity / Age
4. Ball Park
5. Random Tie-Breaker Determined By Gut Feeling

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants – 24 - Perfect combination of all of the criteria. His slight frame may lead to injuries at some point however.
2. Cole Hamels – PHI Phillies – 25 – I favour lefties, they tend to stick around for a while.  Injury concerns are mounting, but he’s still entrenched at number 2.
3. C.C. Sabathia – NY Yankees – 28 – Sabathia seems like he’s older than 28.  Motivation is the only question with Sabathia.  Arrival in NY will up his W totals.
4. Johan Santana – NY Mets – 30 – Best pitcher in the game, but he’s starting to get up there in age.
5. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22 – He’s been around forever, but he’s still as young as they come.  He’ll eventually come around.
6. Chad Billingsley – LA Dodgers – 24 – Massive K potential, in a solid park with a solid line-up all but guarenteed year in and year out.
7. Jake Peavy – SD Padres – 27 – Still has five Ace-like years left in him, and a couple more top-20 pitchers-type years left.
8. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Coming into his own since his arrival in the desert.
9. Zack Greinke – KC Royals – 25 – Maybe I have him a bit high, but everything’s in place for Greinke to be good for a long, long time.
10. Yovani Gallardo – MIL Brewers – 23 – Injured last year, but it wasn’t his arm.  No reason to doubt that Gallardo will fill in perfectly for the oft-injured Ben Sheets.

11. Scott Kazmir – TB Rays – 25 - An Injury waiting to happen, but he’s good, young and a lefty.
12. Clayton Kershaw – LA Dodgers – 21 – Maybe Price belongs here, but right now I’m liking Kershaw a bit more.
13. Francisco Liriano – MIN Twins – 25 - Liriano has all the talent in the world, but if the Twins limit the use of his slider to prolong his career– he’s ranked too high here.
14. Josh Beckett – BOS Red Sox – 28 - Injuries have plagued his career, and those gosh-darn blisters probably extended his career by a year or two.
15. James Shields – TAM Rays – 27 - Shields has really blossomed, and this is the year we’ll see if he’s f’real.  He posts amazing ratios, and pitches for a terrific Tampa team.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS Red Sox – 28 -  Sooner or later those innings are going to catch up to him.  As Dice-K’s skill-set declines, he’ll become a better pitcher that relies on his stuff rather than nibbling on every god-forsaken corner.
17. Scott Baker – MIN Twins – 27 – Baker’s had the potential, and it looks like Minnesota knows what to do with these young guys.
18. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox – 25 -  I’m still not completely sold on the big lefty.
19. Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees – 23 – Who knows how the Yankees will end up using him in the long-run.
20. David Price – TAM Rays - Yup, 20th overall.  Give me more than 19 professional starts, and I’ll buy the hype.  If you’re a risk taker, Price is top-10 material, easily.

21. John Lackey – LAA Angels – 30 – I expect improvement over the next couple years from Lackey, even if he’s already 30.
22. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks – 29 – Sinker baller will continue to post amazing win totals and ratios.
23. Roy Halladay – TOR Jays – 31 – Probably still has a few great years left in him.
24. Max Scherzer – ARI Diamondbacks – 24 - I like Mad-Max, and the tools are there.  He needs to work on his control, a smidgen though.
25. Rich Harden – CHI Cubs – 27 – Top-5 Stuff, Top-1 Injury Risk.
26. Edison Volquez – CIN Reds – 25 – Control problems, and The Great American Ballpark will make for a very bumpy ride.
27. Clay Bucholz – BOS Red Sox – 24 – One of the best young pitchers in the game.  The only question is when he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his stuff without 3 guys breathing down his neck. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bucholz cracks the top 10.
28. John Danks – CHI White Sox – 23 – Unheralded on the south side. Danks is a top-tier talent with great stuff.  One of the better risk/reward type guys at this stage.
29. Kevin Slowey – MIN Twins – 24 – Ratio’s keep him a viable as a top-flight fantasy pitcher.
30. Adam Wainwright – STL Cardinals – 27 – If Wainwright doesn’t dominate this year, it’s time to give up hoping he’ll be a top 10-15 pitcher.

31. Ricky Nolasco – FLA Marlins – 26 – Young and talented, just like every other member of that Marlins staff.  His second half last year was ridiculous.
32. Roy Oswalt – HOU Astros – 31 – Not much to say here.  Expect a steady decline from here on out.
33. Matt Garza – TAM Rays – 25 – Showed his worth in last year’s playoff push.  Great at spotting the fastball.
34. Ervin Santana – LA Angels – 26 – Added to his repertoire last year, and he’s still young enough to continue improving.  Expect a solid career out of this youngin’
35. Matt Cain – SF Giants – 24 – Life is going to be easier for this former top-prospect. Living in Lincecum’s shadow will allow him to excel.
36. Cliff Lee – CLE Indians – 30 – I am not, in any way, ever going to be a fan of Cliff Lee.
37. Brandon Morrow – SEA Mariners – 24 - High Risk, High Reward.  I don’t think he takes off until after the all-star break. He can throw that speed ball by ya, and make you look like a fool, boy.
38. Fausto Carmona – CLE Indians – 25 – He’s flying up draft-boards again this year. This sinkerballer has a lot left in the tank, even if the K’s will never be elite.
39. Carlos Zambrano – CHI Cubs – 27??? – I don’t believe he’s 27.  His control has abandon him.  If Zambrano can get those WHIP numbers down, he’ll elevate his game big time.
40. Erik Bedard – SEA Mariners – 30 – Bedard was a top 5 pitcher 2 years ago, but injury robbed him of his 2008 season.  Still lots of potential here.

41. A.J. Burnett – NY Yankees – 32 – Burnett was the hardest pitcher on this entire list to gauge.  He’s a talented strike-out pitcher, and he’s got a great line-up behind him.  He’s also a massive injury risk, and 32 years old.
42. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers – 26 – He’ll regain it, the question is when.
43. Andrew Miller – FLA Marlins - 23 – I’m huge on Andrew Miller and he’ll dominate as soon as this year.
44. Johnny Cueto – CIN Reds – 23 – Solid pitching prospect going into last year. He looked great in spurts.  I’m worried about injuries in the future.
45. Jared Weaver – LA Angels – 26 - Weaver’s a very solid pitcher, with lots of room to improve.  He’ll be one of the biggest surprises this year.
46. Ubaldo Jiminez – COL Rockies – 25 – If he can get out of Colorado, he’ll be golden.  As it stands, he’s just a great young pitcher with a tremendous fastball.
47. Josh Johnson – FLA Marlins – 25 – Solid as a Rock, but not as sexy as Miller.
48. Brett Myers – PHI Phillies – 28 – If he can put it together, he’ll be solid for at least 5 more years.  Myers is a roller coaster.
49. Chris Volstad – FLA Marlins – 22 - Young Marlins pitchers dominate this board, and Volstads experience last year bumps him above some prospects with better stuff.
50. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL Orioles – 29 – Finally putting it all together.  Should be a break-out guy in 2009.

51. Jair Jurrjens – ATL Braves – 23 – Jurrjens is a solid but safe bet if you’re going for a youngster you’d like to keep around for a while.
52. Chien-Ming Wang – NY Yankees – 29 – Lots of Groundballs, and Lots of Wins.  His lack of strike-outs really hurt him.
53. Phil Hughes – NY Yankees – 22 – Hughes has looked awful in the bigs, but believe it or not he’s one of the best young pitchers out there.
54. Ben Sheets – FA – 30 – Maybe you’ll get 4 more injury plagued years from Sheets? Other than Burnett, Sheets was the next hardest to place.
55. Chris Young – SD Padres – 29 - I love Chris Young this year, next year, and the year after that.  He puts up great ratios in PETCO and strikes out more than his fair share.
56. Mike Pelfrey – NY Mets – 25 – Young Met should finally live up to the hype this year.
57. Brett Anderson – OAK Athletics – 21 – Anderson ranks first among prospects with no big league experience at 57th overall! 57th!  Anderson and the next 5 or so prospects have all of the talent in the world, but I’m not risking my future on more than one of them until I see something tangible.
58. John Maine – NY Mets – 27 - The Maine Event should turn things around this year.
59. Javier Vazquez – ATL Braves – 32 – I’d say you have about 3 more years of very good K numbers.
60. Aaron Harang – CIN Reds – 30 - Harang was awful last year, and he’s a better pitcher than his rank would indicate.

61. Jesse Litsch – TOR Jays – 24 – I don’t like Litsch and think he’s a massive injury risk.  Ever since the cut-fastball invaded the Blue Jays camp, pitchers have went down one after the next.
62. Oliver Perez – NY Mets – 27 - Entering his prime, still has room to improve.  Probably will never be that 200K guy Pittsburgh had.
63. Trevor Cahill – OAK Athletics – 21 – Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both top Tommy Hanson due to Oaklands park.  They also are both vying for a roster spot this year, while Hanson has already been sent down.
64. Paul Maholm – PIT Pirates – 26 – He’s quietly putting together a very solid career.
65. Manny Parra – MIL Brewers – 26 - Talents there, but where’s the control?
66. Dustin McGowan – TOR Jays – 27 - Out for a few months, but he’s a good bet to pitch for  a while longer
67. Tommy Hanson – ATL Braves – 22 - Hanson has dominated the AFL and ST, but he won’t start the year for Atlanta.  Him and Anderson are neck and neck for the best pitching prospect.
68. Jonathan Sanchez – SF Giants – 26 - Control, Control, Control — Get some.  Great K’s from Sanchez, though.
69. Joe Saunders – LA Angels – 27 - Pretty gosh darn boring at this point.
70. Ryan Dempster – CHI Cubs – 31 - Getting up there in age, but should be a steady source of K’s

71. Neftali Feliz – TEX Rangers – 20 – I hadn’t the slightest clue as to where I should put Feliz.  Who knows where he starts the year, and who knows where he finishes it.  He’s got a ridiculous arm, but needs to work on the whole not walking batters thing.  Can he flourish in Texas though?  If you have roster room, Feliz makes for one of the more interesting keepers.
72. Armando Galarraga – DET Tigers – 27 - Boring filler entering his prime.  Some Upside here.
73. Gil Meche – KC Royals – 30 – Boring filler leaving his prime, some upside here too!
74. Justin Duchscherer – OAK Athletics – 31 - Injured filler somewhere around his prime.  Duchscherer’s injuries really put me off, and I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league.
75. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU Astros – 30 - Great K potential and could be a late bloomer.
76. Shaun Marcum – TOR Jays – 27 - Great pitcher who’ll miss all of 2009 with injury.
77. Ted Lilly – CHI Cubs – 33 - You can probably expect a year or two before the tires fall off — at least he’s left handed.
78. Carlos Carrasco – PHI Phillies – 22 - Young and talented, and might just have a job as the Phillies 5th starter.
79. Gavin Floyd – CHI White Sox – 26 - Once, a top prospect. Later, a bust. Currently, somewhere inbetween.
80. Nick Adenhart – LA Angels – 22 - Adenhart makes for an interesting pick.  He’s not quite top-tier talent, but he’s close.  He pitched some last year, and looks to have a job this year.

Finally, the last 50 pitchers are just listed with the interesting ones bolded.

81. Ian Snell – PIT Pirates – 27
82. Derek Lowe – ATL Braves – 35
83. Chris Tillman – BAL Orioles – 22
84. Franklin Morales – COL Rockies – 23
85. Scott Lewis – CLE Indians – 25
86. Tim Hudson – ATL Braves – 33
87. David Purcey – TOR Jays – 27
88. Rick Porcello – DET Tigers – 20
89. Brian Matusz – BAL Orioles – 22
90. Derek Holland – TEX Rangers – 22

91. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS Nationals – 22
92. John Lannan – WAS Nationals – 24
93. Anibal Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25
94. Jon Garland – ARI Diamondbacks – 29
95. Carlos Villanueva – MIL Brewers – 25
96. Gio Gonzalez – OAK Athletics – 23
97. Sean Gallagher – OAK Athletics – 23
98. Andy Sonnanstine – TAM Rays – 26
99. James McDonald – LA Dodgers – 24
100. Jeremy Bonderman – DET Tigers – 26

101. Wade Davis – TAM Rays – 23
102. Jake McGee – TAM Rays – 22
103. Hiroki Kuroda – LA Dodgers – 34
104. Adam Miller – CLE Indians – 24
105. Edwin Jackson – DET Tigers – 25
106. Randy Johnson – SF Giants – 45
107. Collin Balester – WAS Nationals – 22
108. Homer Bailey – CIN Reds – 22
109. Justin Masterson – BOS Red Sox – 24
110. Ian Kennedy – NY Yankees – 23

111. Nick Blackburn – MIN Twins – 27
112. Brad Penny – BOS Red Sox – 30
113. Michael Bowden – BOS Red Sox – 22
114. Jarrod Parker – ARI Diamondbacks – 19
115. Aaron Cook – COL Rockies – 30
116. Jeremy Hellickson – TB Rays
117. Andy Pettitte – NY Yankees – 36
118. Jonathon Niese – NY Mets – 22
119. Josh Outman – OAK Athletics – 24
120. Jeff Samardzija – CHI Cubs – 24

121. Mark Buehrle – CHI White Sox – 30
122. Bronson Arroyo – CIN Reds – 32
123. Jeff Francis – COL Rockies – 27
124. Micah Owings – CIN Reds – 26
125. David Bush – MIL Brewers – 29
126. Randy Wolf – LA Dodgers – 32
127. David Huff – CLE Indians – 23
128. Radhames Liz – BAL Orioles – 25
129. Gaby Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22
130. Todd Wellemyer – STL Cardinals – 30
131. John Smoltz – BOS Red Sox – 41
132. Clayton Richard – CHW – 25
133. Kelvim Escobar – LAA – 32
134. Casey Janssen – TOR Jays – 27
135. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals – 33
136. Scott Richmond – TOR Jays – 29
137. Koji Uehara – BAL Orioles – 33
138. Kenshin Kawakami – ATL Braves – 33

…and done.  The pitchers are the end tend to be filler, with the possibility of contributing for another year or two or youngins who have a shot of falling flat on their face and becoming end of rotation-type guys.

Feel free to comment and tell me why your guy is ranked too low.