As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago. I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.
Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:
| POS | OVR | Name | Team | Position(s) | Mixed $ | AL/NL $ | MOV |
| 1 | 2 | Albert Pujols | STL | 1B | 36 | 37 | |
| Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though. | |||||||
| 2 | 7 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 1B | 31 | 29 | |
| Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up. | |||||||
| 3 | 10 | Mark Teixeira | NYY | 1B | 29 | 27 | |
| Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him. | |||||||
| 4 | 13 | Lance Berkman | HOU | 1B | 28 | 28 | down |
| There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him. | |||||||
| 5 | 19 | Ryan Howard | PHI | 1B | 24 | 26 | up |
| Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap. | |||||||
| 6 | 22 | Prince Fielder | MIL | 1B | 23 | 25 | |
| Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year. | |||||||
| 7 | 32 | Justin Morneau | MIN | 1B | 19 | 25 | |
| Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau. | |||||||
| 8 | 39 | Kevin Youkilis | BOS | 3B/1B | 16 | 23 | |
| In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman. | |||||||
| 9 | 55 | Derrek Lee | CHC | 1B | 13 | 21 | down |
| Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there. | |||||||
| 10 | 57 | Adrian Gonzalez | SD | 1B | 13 | 21 | up |
| Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road. | |||||||
| 11 | 67 | Chris Davis | TEX | 3B/1B | 12 | 21 | down |
| Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop. | |||||||
| 12 | 74 | Carlos Pena | TAM | 1B | 11 | 19 | up |
| Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride. | |||||||
| 13 | 80 | Joey Votto | CIN | 1B | 10 | 19 | up |
| As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair. | |||||||
| 14 | 85 | Garrett Atkins | COL | 3B/1B | 9 | 18 | |
| I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s. | |||||||
| 15 | 119 | Conor Jackson | ARI | 1B/OF | 7 | 17 | |
| Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first. | |||||||
| 16 | 138 | Adam LaRoche | PIT | 1B | 6 | 16 | |
| …and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable. | |||||||
| 17 | 140 | Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B | 5 | 15 | |
| Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range. | |||||||
| 18 | 151 | Pablo Sandoval | SF | 1B | 5 | 14 | down |
| Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others. | |||||||
| 19 | 154 | James Loney | LAD | 1B | 4 | 14 | up |
| Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year. | |||||||
| 20 | 162 | Paul Konerko | CHW | 1B | 4 | 15 | down |
| Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet | |||||||
| 21 | 189 | Jorge Cantu | FLA | 3B/1B | 2 | 13 | |
| If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid. | |||||||
| 22 | 190 | Carlos Guillen | DET | 3B/1B | 2 | 13 | |
| Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG | |||||||
| 23 | 261 | Casey Kotchman | ATL | 1B | $- | 11 | up |
| I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads. | |||||||
| 24 | 269 | Mike Jacobs | KC | 1B | $- | 10 | down |
| Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark. | |||||||
| 25 | 274 | Billy Butler | KC | 1B/DH | $- | 10 | |
| Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN. | |||||||
| 26 | 282 | Todd Helton | COL | 1B | $- | 9 | down |
| This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must. | |||||||
| 27 | 286 | Lyle Overbay | TOR | 1B | $- | 9 | down |
| As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious. | |||||||
| 28 | 291 | Hank Blalock | TEX | 3B/1B | $- | 9 | down |
| Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones. | |||||||
| 29 | 292 | Casey Blake | LAD | 3B/1B | $- | 9 | |
| Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys. | |||||||
| 30 | 293 | Nick Swisher | NYY | 1B/OF | $- | 9 | up |
| Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme. | |||||||
| 31 | 296 | Jason Giambi | OAK | 1B/DH | $- | 9 | up |
| Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him. | |||||||
| 32 | 303 | Ryan Garko | CLE | 1B | $- | 8 | up |
| I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck. | |||||||
| 33 | 329 | Gaby Sanchez | FLA | 1B | $- | 7 | up |
| Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall. | |||||||
| 34 | 336 | Chad Tracy | ARI | 1B | $- | 7 | down |
| Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig. | |||||||
| 35 | 385 | Chris Duncan | STL | 1B/OF | $- | 5 | |
| Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick. | |||||||
| 36 | 423 | Travis Ishikawa | SF | 1B | $- | 4 | |
| The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense. | |||||||
| 37 | 426 | Nick Johnson | WAS | 1B | $- | 4 | |
| Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here. | |||||||
| 38 | 427 | Ronnie Belliard | WAS | 2B/3B/1B | $- | 4 | |
| Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down. | |||||||
| 39 | 428 | Cody Ransom | NYY | 1B | $- | 6 | hrm |
| Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers. | |||||||
| 40 | 434 | Kevin Millar | TOR | 1B | $- | 5 | |
| The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind. | |||||||
| 41 | 479 | Jeff Baker | COL | 2B/1B | $- | 2 | |
| He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full. | |||||||
| 42 | 490 | Wilson Betemit | CHW | 3B/1B | $- | 2 | |
| A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come. | |||||||
| 43 | 520 | Daric Barton | OAK | 1B | $- | 2 | up! |
| I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range. | |||||||
| 44 | 530 | Willy Aybar | TAM | 3B/1B/DH | $- | 1 | |
| Playing time is going to be the problem. | |||||||
| 45 | 666 | Chris Shelton | SEA | 1B | $- | 1 | |
| Seattle is bad, real bad. | |||||||
| 46 | 729 | Rich Aurilia | FA | 1B | $- | $- | |
| Seriously? | |||||||
| 47 | 747 | Michael Aubrey | CLE | 1B | $- | $- | |
| Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year. | |||||||
| 48 | 782 | Doug Mientkiewicz | LAD | 1B | $- | $- | |
| No Way In Hell. | |||||||
| 49 | 785 | John Bowker | SF | 1B | $- | $- | |
| This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed. | |||||||
| 50 | 786 | Aaron Boone | HOU | 1B | $- | $- | |
| Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play. | |||||||
What’s Missing?
Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.
Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year. If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.
Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training. As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy. Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.
The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel. Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.
Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam. Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year. The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.
