This is a good one, and I’m glad someone asked it. Both of these players should contribute to plenty of fantasy teams in deep leagues, and have the potential to possibly even contribute to teams in shallow leagues — if everything goes well.
What we’re dealing with here is two late blooming second basemen, who both have a shot at contributing for 5 or so more years. Hill’s coming in at 27 this year, and Getz will be 26 by the end of the year.
Aaron Hill’s been Toronto’s second basemen since essentially 2005, but has had his career thrown off course by post-concussion syndrome. As an added bonus, Aaron Hill enters the batters box to Ozzy Osbourne’s Iron Man which strangely enough provides an epic backdrop for my howls of “I AM AARON HILL, lalalalala, AARON HILL”.
Chris Getz on the other hand is in a battle with former Braves prospect, Brett Lillibridge and equally as uninspiring Jayson Nix. Jayson Nix appeared to have the edge on Getz until an injury side-lined him until late-April, early-May. Now it appears as though Getz has the second base job, with Cuban phenom, Alexei Ramirez switching from second base to shortstop.
Both Hill and Getz have a distinct risk of missing large chunks of playing time; Hill has his head, and Getz has competition for the job.
Batting Average and On-Base Percentage
Aaron Hill is easier to predict, as he’s had a good amount of Major League at-bats. Hill had posted consecutive .291 seasons in 2006 & 2007 before his disastrous 2008 season of hitting .263.
If Hill has returned to full health, we’re looking at a .285 hitter that’ll probably start off slow as he re-adjusts after missing nearly 100 games last year.
Other than Getz’s 2006 season in AA, he’s proven he’s a .300 hitter in the minors. He’s a scrappy little hitter that’ll probably come close to hitting .275-.280 in the show.
Both Hill and Getz walk at a rate of between 7 and 10 percent, and strike-out an acceptable 14-15% of the time. What little room Getz gives up in batting average, he makes up for in walk-rate. Hill and Getz should post similar .335-.345 OBP in 2009.
Home Runs and Slugging Percentage
While Aaron Hill displayed average power from the second base spot in 2007 posting 17-HR, he’s much more likely to display low-teens home-run power in 2009. The same holds true for Getz, who’s career high was 11-HR in 404 AAA at-bats last year.
Hill gets the edge based solely on potential, as it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Hill top 15 home runs again, in 2009.
Counting Stats, Runs and RBI
I’m predicting Doom and Gloom for the Toronto Blue Jays this year, but Hill should at least put up half-decent Run totals with Wells, Rios, and Lind following him in the line-up. A healthy Scott Rolen would mean a lot to this line-up, but when was the last time Scott Rolen was healthy?
The back-end of the Jays line-up will be hit and miss throughout the year, which’ll be reflected in Hill’s RBI totals. The Blue Jays line-up is solid, but not spectacular in a division that is filled with about 10 different aces, not counting Roy Halladay. I tend to think that facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Beckett, Dice-K, Kazmir, Shields with the possibilities of Price, Smoltz, Bucholz and a healthy Andy Petitte is going to negatively effect all of the Blue Jays’ and Orioles’ stat-lines this year.
A fair expectation for Hill, assuming he sticks at the front-end of the Jays line-up is about 75-80 Runs, with 65-70RBI.
Christopher Getz on the other hand, could realistically bat anywhere in that aging, but nevertheless loaded, White Sox line-up. If Getz can bat early, he’ll be followed by Quentin, Dye, Thome, Konerko. With both Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher gone, the lead-off and number two spots in the line-up are up for grabs.
Brian Anderson is realistically the only other guy that could hit lead-off for this club, and he’s projected to get on base at a .300-clip. Alexei Ramirez’s free swinging ways will have him hitting .290 but barely getting on-base greater than a .325 clip. It really looks like Chris Getz will bat in the 1 or 2 spot, if he can hold off Lillibridge and more importantly Nix.
If Getz does bat early in this line-up, expect big numbers. The possibility of 85 Runs scored in 140 Games is a very real one. If Getz can get on base, the crew behind him should be able to knock him home. The RBI totals should be equally as solid with the back-end up the White Sox’s line-up consisting of Josh Fields, A.J. Pierzynski, or Brian Anderson. I’d set my sites on 65 RBI, assuming Getz manages to hold onto the job all year.
Getz has a solid shot of matching Orlando Cabrera’s numbers from last year, as he hits for about the same average, gets on-base at about the same clip, and slugs at around the same percentage. Getz doesn’t possess Cabrera’s speed, but I doubt it’ll effect his scoring ability.
Getz also isn’t a whiney little bastard child, who tries to pan errors off on other players.
Cabrera’s numbers were 93R and 57 RBI, while he only got on-base at a .334 clip which Getz could easily eclipse.
America’s Midwest: Speed Capital of the Universe.
Getz has a clear-cut advantage in this category, as he’s predicted to steal 10 to 15 bases assuming he can get to the 400AB mark. Aaron Hill while not slow, will top out at about 10-12 stolen bases with a more aggressive Cito Gaston at the helm. A much more realistic projection is about 6 to 7 SB.
What little advantage Hill has in home-runs, he gives back in the speed department. Realistically Getz and Hill with both put up mid-20′s combined HR and SB.
If Getz can keep hold of the job the entire year, 20+ SB isn’t out of the question. Guillen’s allowing him run this spring, leading to Getz stealing 4 and only getting caught once.
Conclusion
This one’s a mess. The second base position on the White Sox will outpace Aaron Hill by a good amount in 3 of the 5 categories, with the other two categories probably being a wash.
The problem posed however, is that the battle for the White Sox starting second base job is still quite uncertain. It looks like Getz will at least start the year off as the full-time starter, but when Nix gets healthy the competition will resume. Alexei Ramirez isn’t exactly stellar at shortstop, and Chicago’s offense is already loaded, which leads me to believe Ozzie Guillen may opt for a defensive second basemen. If Ramirez struggles in the field, there’s even the potential for Lillibridge to man short with Ramirez switching back to second.
Aaron Hill on the other hand, has displayed the potential to be rosterable in a 12-team mixed league, with 20-HR pop and a .290 average. However, the Blue Jays line-up just isn’t as enticing as the Sox.
Getz and Hill actually form a moderately successful platoon in deeper leagues, where drafting both is a solid strategy. If Getz takes off as the starter for Chicago, feel free to drop Hill. Otherwise, Hill leaves you with a solid, predictable, second baseman to fill the hole. Hill’s concussion problems have plagued him, but he’s went through spring training without any major headaches, or nausea.
Getz has posted a very solid .308/.379/.423 spring training with 1 HR and 4SB in 52 AB. Hill on the other hand, whose Spring Training stats mean far less, has posted a .268/.362/.439 with 0 HR and 1SB in 41AB.
When comparing these two, you’ve got to ask yourself whether or not Getz can get to 120-140 games as the starter. Even if Getz can hold down the job for 120 games; His numbers plus the numbers of the waiver-wire bait you pick up to fill the other 40 games will probably eclipse Hill.
If you’re thinking about Hill vs. Getz, you’re obviously in a fairly deep league; So it may make sense to hedge your bets and take the safer Aaron Hill. If you have a propensity for risk though, or you’ve minimized your risk elsewhere — Getz is the pick.
In shallow leagues, where you’re looking for a high-risk / high-reward pick, Getz is also the pick.
By the way, what is the possessive of Sox...Sox? or Sox's?
Photo Courtesy of mlb.com
